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GELDPOLITIK

Pressekonferenz am Donnerstag

Präsidentin Christine Lagarde und Vizepräsident Luis de Guindos erläutern die geldpolitischen Beschlüsse des EZB-Rats und stellen sich den Fragen der Journalistinnen und Journalisten. Die Pressekonferenz beginnt um 14:45 Uhr MEZ.

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Civil war declaration: On April 14th and 15th, 2012 Federal Republic of Germany "_urkenstaats"s parliament, Deutscher Bundestag, received a antifiscal written civil war declaration by Federal Republic of Germany "Rechtsstaat"s electronic resistance for human rights even though the "Widerstandsfall" according to article 20 paragraph 4 of the constitution, the "Grundgesetz", had been already declared in the years 2001-03. more

DER EZB-BLOG 27. Januar 2023

Der Holocaust: wir müssen die Erinnerung wachhalten

Das Hauptgebäude der EZB in Frankfurt steht an einem Ort, der mit den schrecklichen Gräueltaten des Holocaust verknüpft ist. Wir müssen alles daransetzen, dass es nie wieder Gewaltherrschaft und staatliches Unrecht gibt. Unsere Arbeit für die europäische Einheit ist ein Eckpfeiler dieses Bekenntnisses.

Der EZB-Blog
PODCAST 28. Januar 2023

Von der Kuna zum Euro – wie funktioniert eine Währungsumstellung?

Seit dem 1. Januar ist Kroatien Mitglied des Euroraums. Wie haben sich Bevölkerung, Unternehmen und Behörden vorbereitet, damit die Euro-Einführung möglichst reibungslos abläuft? Darüber sprechen unsere Gastgeberin Katie Ranger und Expertin Patricia Roa Tejero in der aktuellen Folge des EZB-Podcast.

Der EZB-Podcast
EVENT 26. Januar 2023

Wir sind jetzt auch auf Kahoot!

Was ist die Hauptaufgabe der EZB? Wie viele Menschen verwenden den Euro? Teste dein Wissen über Zentralbanken, Bankenaufsicht, Geld und Inflation mit unseren vier neuen Quiz auf der Lernplattform Kahoot!

Quiz
30 January 2023
PRESS RELEASE
27 January 2023
EURO AREA ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BY INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR (FULL)
Annexes
27 January 2023
EURO AREA ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BY INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR (FULL)
27 January 2023
EURO AREA ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BY INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR (FULL)
27 January 2023
MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EURO AREA
Annexes
24 January 2023
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT
Annexes
24 January 2023
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
24 January 2023
PRESS RELEASE
23 January 2023
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Deutsche Börse Annual Reception in Eschborn
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
23 January 2023
Introductory statement by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
10 January 2023
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the International Symposium on Central Bank Independence, Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm
Annexes
10 January 2023
6 January 2023
Presentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, in panel discussion “Global Economic Outlook” organised by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) at 2023 ASSA Annual Meeting, New Orleans
15 December 2022
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 15 December 2022
24 January 2023
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Andreas Kröner, Jan Mallien and Frank Wiebe
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (2) +
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17 January 2023
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Martin Wolf on 12 January 2023
31 December 2022
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, conducted by Marina Klepo on 19 December 2022
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
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27 December 2022
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted on 16 December 2022
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
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24 December 2022
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Gerald Braunberger and Christian Siedenbiedel on 16 December 2022
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
Select your language
27 January 2023
The ECB’s main building in Frankfurt stands on a site linked to the atrocities of the Holocaust. On International Holocaust Remembrance Day, we affirm that tyranny and state injustice must never again prevail. Building European unity is a cornerstone of this commitment.
18 January 2023
Hit by multiple shocks, the corporate sector has increased its debt over recent years. The ECB Blog shows that strained balance sheets could significantly depress firms’ investment in the coming years with negative implications for innovation and growth.
Details
JEL Code
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
G31 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Capital Budgeting, Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies, Capacity
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
5 January 2023
Trading in unbacked digital assets should be treated by regulators like gambling.
4 January 2023
Borrowing has become more expensive for governments. But despite rising interest rates, government debt can remain on a sound path. The ECB Blog discusses what constitutes a favourable balance between debt costs and economic growth.
Details
JEL Code
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H30 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→General
E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
20 December 2022
The ECB has gauged bank resilience to interest rate shocks under different macroeconomic scenarios. ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos and Chair of the ECB’s Supervisory Board Andrea Enria walk us through the findings.
30 January 2023
OTHER PUBLICATION
25 January 2023
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2769
Details
Abstract
Differences in labour market institutions and regulations between countries of the monetary union can cause divergent responses even to a common shock. We augment a multi-country model of the euro area with search and matching framework that differs across Ricardian and hand-to-mouth households. In this setting, we investigate the implications of cross-country heterogeneity in labour market institutions for the conduct of monetary policy in a monetary union. We compute responses to an expansionary demand shock and to an inflationary supply shock under the Taylor rule, asymmetric unemployment targeting, and average inflation targeting. For each rule we distinguish between cases with zero weight on the unemployment gap and a negative response to rising unemployment. Across all rules, responding to unemployment leads to lower losses of employment and higher inflation. Responding to unemployment reduces cross-country differences within the monetary union and the differences in consumption levels of rich and poor households.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
25 January 2023
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2768
Details
Abstract
This paper compares within-sample and out-of-sample fit of a DSGE model with rational expectations to a model with adaptive learning. The Galí, Smets and Wouters model is the chosen laboratory using quarterly real-time euro area data vintages, covering 2001Q1–2019Q4. The adaptive learning model obtains better within-sample fit for all vintages used for estimation in the forecast exercise and for the full sample. However, the rational expectations model typically predicts real GDP growth better as well as jointly with inflation. For the marginal inflation forecasts, the same holds for the inner quarters of the forecast horizon, while the adaptive learning model predicts better for the outer quarters.
JEL Code
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C52 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
24 January 2023
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2767
Details
Abstract
We develop a measure of overall financial risk in China by applying machine learning techniques to textual data. A pre-defined set of relevant newspaper articles is first selected using a specific constellation of risk-related keywords. Then, we employ topical modelling based on an unsupervised machine learning algorithm to decompose financial risk into its thematic drivers. The resulting aggregated indicator can identify major episodes of overall heightened financial risks in China, which cannot be consistently captured using financial data. Finally, a structural VAR framework is employed to show that shocks to the financial risk measure have a significant impact on macroeconomic and financial variables in China and abroad.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C65 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
24 January 2023
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2766
Details
Abstract
This paper provides an analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on exporting firms, fo-cusing on the role of supply bottlenecks. Based on monthly transaction-level data for the universe of French exporters over the period January 2020-December 2021, we find that participation in global value chains increased firms’ vulnerability to the COVID-19 shock, in terms of both export perfor-mance and probability of survival in the export market, the negative impact of supply disruptions being higher for relatively more downstream firms. At the same time, the results suggest that export-ing firms benefited from sourcing of core inputs from different countries, supporting the hypothesis that diversification in global value chains fosters supply-chain resilience.
JEL Code
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F61 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Microeconomic Impacts
24 January 2023
OTHER PUBLICATION
23 January 2023
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2765
Details
Abstract
Economic literature suggests that banks change their dividend payouts for three main reasons. They may be willing to signal good future profitability to shareholders to address information asymmetry, or use dividends to mitigate the agency costs, or could come under pressure from prudential supervisors and regulators to retain earnings. The COVID-19 pandemic led to introduction of sector-wide recommendation by regulators to suspend dividend payouts in view of prevailing large uncertainty. Using a panel data approach for two samples of listed and unlisted European banks, this paper provides evidence that, over a decade and a half preceding the pandemic, bank dividend payouts were adjusted in line with the three motivations found in the literature. The results are robust to selection of alternative variables representing these motivations. Banks are found not to discount expectations about future economic conditions or their own profitability when making payouts. Simulations shown in the paper suggest that, in the absence of supervisory recommendations, banks would likely have reduced the payouts only slightly in the first year of the pandemic.
JEL Code
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G35 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Payout Policy
23 January 2023
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2764
Details
Abstract
The EU is revising its emissions trading system (ETS) and plans to impose a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) on imports. We evaluate the efficacy of the ETS retrospectively and its anti-competitive effects. We find that the ETS contributed to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the EU by 2-2.5 percentage points per year; pricier emissions and more stringent caps accelerated the EU greening process. However, some carbon leakages occurred as declining emissions in regulated industries within the EU were counterbalanced by an intensification elsewhere. Moreover, it burdened companies in regulated industries. For a comparable rise in the emission intensity of production, gross output of companies located in the EU drops more than output of companies outside the EU. In addition, the choice of purchasing high-emission inputs from within the EU translates into a competitive disadvantage for companies located within the EU. The large drop in F-type output when emissions intensity rises might signal their enhanced ability to relocate the production of high-carbon footprints intermediates to non-regulated regions. Outsourcing helps dodging the EU green regulation and the strategy becomes increasingly appealing as the sectoral coverage of the ETS is extended. A careful joint design of the CBAM and the ETS becomes thus crucial to avoid that applying the CBAM to a restricted list of imports while expanding the ETS coverage puts the EU at greater risk of carbon leakages without concretely reducing global emissions.
JEL Code
Q52 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Pollution Control Adoption Costs, Distributional Effects, Employment Effects
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
17 January 2023
OTHER PUBLICATION
16 January 2023
SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS
16 January 2023
RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 103
Details
Abstract
A safe asset is of high credit quality, retains its value in bad times and is traded in liquid markets. We show that bonds issued by the European Union (EU) are widely considered to be of high credit quality, and that their yield spread over German Bunds remained contained during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic recession. Recent issuances under the EU’s SURE and NGEU initiatives helped improve EU bonds' market liquidity from previously low levels, also reducing liquidity risk premia. Eurosystem purchases and holdings of EU bonds did not impair market liquidity. Currently, one obstacle to EU bonds achieving a genuine euro-denominated safe asset status, approaching that of Bunds, lies in the one-off, time-limited nature of the EU’s COVID-19-related policy responses.
JEL Code
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
13 January 2023
OTHER PUBLICATION
12 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - No. 8
12 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box examines the information that the euro area bank lending survey (BLS) provides on future growth in loans to firms and households for house purchase in the euro area. The survey has proved to be invaluable for assessing the passthrough of monetary policy to borrowers via banks, for obtaining early information on turning points in lending conditions, and for understanding changes in loan demand and lending conditions during exceptional periods, such as the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic and the Russian war in Ukraine. First, simple cross-correlations reveal a strong relation between BLS indicators and actual loan growth several quarters ahead. Second, BLS indicators help improve loan forecasts. In terms of loans to firms, the credit standards and loan demand reported in the BLS provide additional information that can be used when forecasting lending, while for housing loans, forecasts are improved by taking into account reported demand in particular. Finally, bank-level data confirm that BLS responses also reveal information on loan developments at the individual bank level. Overall, recent developments regarding BLS credit standards and loan demand point to a deceleration of growth in loans to firms and households in the coming quarters.
JEL Code
E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
12 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box describes the liquidity conditions and the ECB’s monetary policy operations during the fifth and sixth maintenance periods of 2022, from 27 July to 1 November.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
12 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box looks at the link between firms’ financing conditions and the euro area business cycle. For information on financing conditions of firms, the box uses results from the Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE). Monetary policy is shown to affect changes in firms’ financing gaps – the difference between the change in demand for and the change in the availability of external financing – as well as their expectations about future availability of finance. At the current juncture, firms report increasing financing gaps and a deterioration in their expectations about the availability of finance in the period ahead. Such responses from firms are associated with stronger concerns about finance at the firm level. Moreover, financing conditions matter for the aggregate business cycle: increasing financing gaps and lower expected availability of finance foreshadow lower GDP growth.
JEL Code
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
12 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
Details
Abstract
On 1 January 2023 Croatia adopted the euro and became the 20th member of the euro area. The Croatian economy is expected to benefit from the elimination of currency risk, as well as lower transaction and borrowing costs. After its accession to the EU in 2013, Croatia made significant progress in addressing macroeconomic imbalances and achieving convergence towards the euro area. It now needs to continue with those reform efforts in order to fully reap the benefits of the euro and to allow adjustment mechanisms to operate efficiently within the enlarged currency area.
JEL Code
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
12 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
Details
Abstract
This article provides an initial review of the ECB’s pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), with a focus on its objectives, implementation, and effectiveness. The ECB launched the PEPP in March 2020 in response to the extraordinary economic and financial shock brought about by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Implementation of the programme was flexible, spreading purchases over time, across asset classes and among jurisdictions. The PEPP was instrumental in supporting market functioning and the transmission of the monetary policy stance, and thus in countering pandemic-related risks to price stability.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
11 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box examines the impact of the recent increase in energy prices on real consumer spending in the euro area. The empirical framework relies on a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model and identifies adverse energy supply shocks that lead to a deterioration in the terms of trade, as captured by the ratio between the GDP deflator and the private consumption deflator, and a decline in real consumer spending. It finds that energy supply shocks have significantly weighed on total private consumption in recent quarters, with durable goods consumption being particularly affected.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
10 January 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2022
Details
Abstract
This box discusses fiscal policy orientation in 2023 in the context of the ongoing European Semester.
JEL Code
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

Zinssätze

Spitzenrefinanzierungsfazilität 2,75 %
Hauptrefinanzierungsgeschäfte (fester Zinssatz) 2,50 %
Einlagefazilität 2,00 %
21. Dezember 2022 Frühere Leitzinsen der EZB

Inflationsrate

Schaubild zur Inflation

Wechselkurse

USD US dollar 1.0903
JPY Japanese yen 141.79
GBP Pound sterling 0.87978
CHF Swiss franc 1.0045
Stand: 30. Januar 2023 Euro-Wechselkurse