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GOVOR
7. lipnja 2025.
Čuvajmo mora i oceane, čuvajmo gospodarstvo
Moramo njegovati bogatu raznolikost mora i oceana te olakšati financiranje inovativnih mjera prilagodbe koje će pridonijeti otpornosti zajednica i snazi globalnog gospodarstva, rekla je predsjednica Christine Lagarde na događanju Blue Economy and Finance Forum.
Pročitajte govor
GOVOR
9. lipnja 2025.
EU: primjer za pravnu sigurnost
Vladavina prava potiče ulaganje i gospodarski rast te osnažuje međunarodnu ulogu eura, rekao je član Izvršnog odbora Frank Elderson. Središnje banke, koje se oslanjaju na vladavinu prava u provedbi svojih zadaća, moraju je održavati i štititi.
Govor Franka Eldersona
ESB-ov BLOG
10. lipnja 2025.
Sklonost preuzimanju rizika među ulagačima
Geopolitičke napetosti i neizvjesnost povezana s trgovinskim politikama dovode do nepredvidljivosti na globalnim financijskim tržištima. Na ESB‑ovu blogu predstavljamo novi pokazatelj sklonosti preuzimanju rizika kojim sustavno pratimo takve promjene raspoloženja na tržištu.
ESB-ov blog- 10 June 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 10 June 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 10 June 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 6 June 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 5 June 2025
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 5 June 2025
- COMBINED MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS AND STATEMENT
- 4 June 2025
- PRESS RELEASEEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 9 June 2025
- Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the Italian constitutional court
- 7 June 2025
- Slides by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 31st Dubrovnik Economic Conference in Dubrovnik, Croatia
- 7 June 2025
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Blue Economy and Finance Forum in Monaco
- 5 June 2025
- Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 5 June 2025EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 26 May 2025
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at an event on Europe’s role in a fragmented world organised by Jacques Delors Centre at Hertie School in Berlin, Germany
- 27 May 2025
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Christian Siedenbiedel on 20 May 2025
- 27 May 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Leonidas Stergiou on 21 May 2025
- 18 May 2025
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Marie-Pierre Gröndahl on 8 May 2025
- 3 May 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Jakob Zirm on 28 April 2025
- 24 March 2025
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Andrés Stumpf
- 10 June 2025
- Geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty are injecting unpredictability into global financial markets. What seems like rock-solid market sentiment today can turn into jitters tomorrow. In this ECB Blog, we present a new risk appetite indicator to systematically track such shifts in market sentiment.Details
- JEL Code
- G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 28 May 2025
- Despite recent ECB rate cuts, the average interest rate on mortgages is expected to increase further. This is because of lagged effects from the latest hiking cycle. The ECB blog shows that the resulting drag on consumption could last at least until 2030.Details
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 23 May 2025
- The degradation of natural ecosystems slows growth and leads to financial instability. Water scarcity, natural flood protection and water quality are most critical. Surface water scarcity alone puts almost 15% of the euro area’s economic output at risk.Details
- JEL Code
- Q50 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→General
- 8 May 2025
- Foreign workers play an increasingly important role in the euro area labour markets. This ECB blog analyses the effects migrants had on growth across the largest countries in recent years. It also discusses changing labour market participation patterns among foreign workers.Details
- JEL Code
- J10 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→General
- 5 May 2025
- Lasting high energy prices are putting pressure on industries across Europe. This is hitting some regions, such as southern Germany, the Ruhr and northern Italy, harder than others. The ECB Blog examines the implications for employment.Details
- JEL Code
- J60 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→General
Q40 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→General
- 10 June 2025
- EURO AREA QUARTERLY FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS - QUALITY REPORT
- 10 June 2025
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
- 5 June 2025
- MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREAEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +Annexes
- 5 June 2025
- MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
- 4 June 2025
- CONVERGENCE REPORTAnnexes
- 4 June 2025
- CONVERGENCE REPORT
- 27 May 2025
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 131Details
- Abstract
- This article studies the supply of private safe assets by banks and its implications for financial stability. Banks originate loans and improve loan quality through hidden screening efforts. They can then create safe assets by issuing debt backed by the safe payoffs, from both loans they have originated and a diversified pool of loans from other banks. The interaction between banks’ screening efforts and diversification decisions determines the volume of safe assets they supply. In the context of incomplete markets, a free-rider problem arises: individual banks fail to internalise how their efforts influence the ability to generate safe assets through diversification, as this depends on the collective efforts of all banks. This market failure creates a novel inefficiency, which worsens as the scarcity of safe assets increases, leading to a backward-bending safe asset supply curve. The public provision of safe assets helps mitigate the inefficiency by reducing their scarcity, but it cannot fully solve the problem. Moreover, the impact on the total private supply of safe assets is ambiguous: public safe assets reduce incentives for diversification (a “crowding-out” effect), which in turn increases banks’ incentives to exert screening effort (a “crowding-in” effect).
- JEL Code
- G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 21 May 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3059Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides the first study of climate risk pricing in euro area commercial real estate markets. We pay particular attention to changes in risk pricing over time, as a sudden market shift may significantly amplify the financial stability and macroeconomic implications of these risks. We find evidence of investors applying a penalty to buildings exposed to physical risk and that this penalty has increased significantly over the 2007-2023 period we study, particularly for properties exposed to risks associated with climate change. This change in pricing appears to have occurred in an orderly manner, with no implications for liquidity in the market for high risk buildings. In contrast, while pricing of transition risk has also increased over the period studied, towards the end of our sample the market response to transition risk appears to be playing out via market liquidity. This indicates that older buildings - which are more exposed to transition risks - may already be at risk of becoming “stranded assets”.
- JEL Code
- R33 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets
Q51 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Valuation of Environmental Effects
G2 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services
- 21 May 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEWAnnexes
- 21 May 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW
Related- 21 May 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 21 May 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box examines the decline in the share of non-banks’ liquid asset holdings and the implications of this for financial stability. In recent years, the share of cash equivalents and HQLA Level 1 holdings has significantly decreased, which may reduce the ability of non-banks to absorb shocks and meet payment obligations, especially under stressed market conditions. Valuation losses on HQLA Level 1 bonds, higher valuation gains on HQLA Level 2 equities and increased investment in less liquid assets have been the key drivers of this decline. Additionally, not all HQLAs retain their liquidity in times of stress. The growing share of HQLA Level 2 assets primarily consists of traded equities, which can suffer sharp valuation losses during periods of market stress and it may only be possible to liquidate them at a significant discount. Furthermore, growing non-bank reliance on indirect exposure to liquid assets via holdings of investment fund shares introduces additional risks, as their liquidity may be uncertain in stress periods. This creates the potential for financial contagion across non-bank financial intermediation sectors, highlighting the need for closer monitoring of liquidity risk and its broader systemic implications.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 21 May 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Private market financing can bring both benefits and risks for euro area financial stability. On the one hand, companies with access to private market financing display significantly higher productivity levels than companies financed solely by banks. This might be due to a positive screening effect or result over the medium to long term from an increase in a company’s intangible assets and long-term investments after the entry of private markets. On the other hand, the entry of private markets is associated with higher indebtedness and a decreased capacity to pay interest. The chances of spillover from these worsened risk metrics to euro area non-bank financial entities appears limited, but concerns remain around concentration risks and complex bank lending exposures. Opaqueness and data scarcity hinder full risk assessment.
- JEL Code
- D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G24 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Investment Banking, Venture Capital, Brokerage, Ratings and Ratings Agencies
G30 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→General
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
- 21 May 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Digitalisation is transforming the delivery of banking services, leading to the emergence of new digital bank business models. Small retail deposits, many of which are cross-border, are the main source of funding for digital banks in the euro area. They follow one of two main types of business model: that of a lender or that of a similar nature to a money market fund. Their lending franchises tend to be narrowly specialised. Digital banks are less profitable than their traditional peers due to their higher cost of deposits and fixed expenses, but they are highly valued by equity investors. The continued growth of digital banks could bring benefits for customers but may also threaten financial stability by displacing incumbents and increasing cross-border spillovers.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
L20 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior→General
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
- 21 May 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2025Details
- Abstract
- The box estimates the deposit franchise value of euro area banks and examines its relationship with the interest rate environment, market concentration and bank valuations. The deposit franchise value is defined as the long-term present value of earnings from low-cost, stable deposit funding, minus operating expenses. It can act as a stabilising force by bolstering profitability and containing interest rate risk. The deposit franchise value rises as market rates increase. Banks with greater market concentration, cost efficiency and market power tend to have higher deposit franchise values. Higher deposit franchise values are also associated with more favourable market valuations.
- JEL Code
- E41, E43, G21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
- 21 May 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2025Details
- Abstract
- In recent years, the intertwining of geopolitical tensions and cyber threats has become increasingly pronounced, with state-sponsored cyberattacks playing an increasingly important role in the perpetration of hybrid conflicts. This phenomenon is primarily driven by a small number of countries, often characterised as authoritarian, which use their cyber capabilities to further national interests. These cyberattacks frequently target critical infrastructures and state institutions, focusing predominantly on data theft, sabotage and influence campaigns. The threat of cyberattacks to financial stability is significant, given the growing digitalisation and interconnectedness within the financial system. Cyberattacks can disrupt essential financial services, posing systemic risks through operational, financial and confidence channels. Increasing dependency on third-party providers amplifies these vulnerabilities. In times of heightened geopolitical tension, the risk of cyberattacks aimed at causing maximum disruption is elevated. It is therefore imperative for authorities and financial institutions to prioritise cybersecurity, develop resilience and enhance cooperation to effectively mitigate such risks.
- JEL Code
- F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
F52 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→National Security, Economic Nationalism
- 21 May 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2025Details
- Abstract
- The number of older people in the EU has increased markedly in recent decades and is projected to go on rising. This trend may pose challenges to financial stability given the adjustments needed in both the real economy and the financial sector to adapt to the demands of an ageing society. Building on the extensive body of literature examining the impact of population ageing on the real economy, this special feature investigates the channels through which population ageing could elevate financial stability concerns in the financial and non-financial sectors, bearing in mind possible interdependencies across sectors. Comprehensive policy actions appear warranted to meet the challenges posed by an ageing population to financial stability. These can range from boosting productivity growth and labour force participation rates to ensuring the sustainability of pension systems by increasing market-based retirement savings, also in the context of the developing capital markets union.
- JEL Code
- D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
H55 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Social Security and Public Pensions
J14 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of the Elderly, Economics of the Handicapped, Non-Labor Market Discrimination
- 21 May 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2025Details
- Abstract
- The market capitalisation of crypto-assets has surged recently, fuelled by positive and broadening investor interest, including from traditional finance. Several key financial stability risks associated with crypto-assets have been identified in past editions of this publication and by the Financial Stability Board. They include, among others, interconnectedness with traditional finance, market volatility and lack of transparency, liquidity and maturity mismatches, and leverage and concentration. This special feature focuses on the first two. For these sources, risks for financial stability in the euro area appear limited, but there are signs that interconnectedness between the crypto-asset ecosystem and the traditional financial sector is strengthening. As it does, new channels of potential contagion are opening up, warranting closer monitoring. At the same time, euro area households’ direct exposures are slowly rising from low levels. Data gaps, especially for the crypto exposures of non-banks and leverage, pose challenges both for monitoring and for assessing the scale of these sources of systemic risk. It is therefore essential that these data gaps be closed and that responsible authorities remain vigilant. Although the EU has established a stringent regulatory framework, global regulation is either fragmented or absent, raising the risk of regulatory arbitrage and contagion from abroad.
- JEL Code
- G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
G51 : Financial Economics
- 20 May 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3058Details
- Abstract
- Monetary policy can have contrasting effects on economic inequality via distinct channels. We examine the effect working via the credit channel, whereby monetary policy induces heterogeneous access to credit for business owners based on their wealth. Using unique data on business loan applications from small firms, we find that monetary expansions increase the bank’s likelihood to approve loan applications, particularly so for low-wealth entrepreneurs, translating to higher future income and wealth. Survey data from 19 euro area countries on loan applications by SMEs confirms these findings, and shows that the effect transmits especially via weakly capitalized and less liquid banks.
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
D63 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics→Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
- 20 May 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3057The impact of monetary policy and macroprudential policy on corporate lending rates in the Euro areaDetails
- Abstract
- We examine the differential impact of monetary policy and macroprudential policy on bank lending rates in the euro area, using granular corporate loan-level data for the period 2019-2023. We find three results: First, consistent with the predictions of a stylized theoretical model of bank lending rates, monetary policy exerts an order of magnitude larger impact on lending rates than macroprudential policy. Second, the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission weakens when interest rates are close to or below zero. Third, the impact of macroprudential policy on lending rates increases when banks have limited capital headroom above capital buffer requirements, indicating cautious lending behavior when banks get close to regulatory constraints. Our findings have important policy implications for the joint conduct of monetary and macroprudential policy.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 20 May 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Trade tensions can be a threat to financial stability, with both the implementation of trade restrictions and trade policy uncertainty resulting in adverse consequences. In this special feature, we show that trade policy uncertainty can adversely affect the real economy as well as banks’ funding, asset quality, profitability and lending. Policy authorities need to identify risks stemming from trade tensions, monitor their transmission and evaluate their potential impact on financial stability. Sound capital and liquidity buffers are financial institutions’ first line of defence to absorb shocks stemming from trade disruptions. However, banks should also conduct regular assessments to identify and evaluate these specific risks. In addition, they should diversify portfolios to minimise their exposure to such risks. A box within the special feature analyses the risks of euro area equities repricing across sectors in response to developments in the United States, with a particular focus on news relating to trade policy.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 19 May 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3056Details
- Abstract
- This study investigates to what extent the significant liquidity injections by the ECB over the past 15 years may have created a dependency by banks on central bank liquidity itself. Following Acharya et al. (2024), I examine whether the ECB's liquidity provision changed banks' incentives to increase liquid deposits, potentially heightening their susceptibility to liquidity shocks. Using both aggregate and bank-level data, I find that euro area banks tend to increase demand deposits and decrease time deposits with their holdings of excess reserves over the liquidity expansion phase and do not revert when aggregate liquidity starts to shrink. However, this is contained to specific periods, when interest rates were low and stable. The differences relative to the US could be related to distinct sources of liquidity and regulatory frameworks governing liquidity.
- JEL Code
- E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 19 May 2025
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS
- 19 May 2025
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Since 2023 the price of gold has reached record highs, underscoring its role as a safe haven during periods of financial and geopolitical stress. Unlike other assets, gold does not provide cash flow and carries no counterparty risk, making it appealing in uncertain times. Gold outperforms equities and bonds during crises, reaffirming its stabilising role in investors’ portfolios. Recent trends in gold futures markets highlight increased investor demand and a preference for physical delivery amid economic policy uncertainty and trade tensions. Euro area investors have exposure to gold through derivatives, with notable foreign counterparty risks, indicating potential vulnerabilities. Although aggregate exposure is limited, the concentrated and leveraged nature of commodity markets poses systemic risks. During extreme geopolitical or economic events, these risk factors could lead to liquidity stress and market disruptions, affecting financial stability. Gold markets thus reflect broader risk perceptions, with important implications for financial systems.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
Kamatne stope
| stalno raspoloživa mogućnost deponiranja | 2,00 % |
| glavne operacije refinanciranja (nepromjenjiva kamatna stopa) | 2,15 % |
| mogućnost granične posudbe od središnje banke | 2,40 % |
Stopa inflacije
Više o inflacijiTečajevi
| USD | US dollar | 1.1429 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 165.23 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.84640 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9389 |
NISTE STRUČNJAK? PROČITAJTE NAŠA OBJAŠNJENJA
VIŠE
Što je Europska središnja banka?