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EKONOMICKÝ BULLETIN
2. května 2025
ECB zveřejnila Ekonomický bulletin
Tato publikace představuje hospodářské a měnové informace, které jsou základem pro měnověpolitická rozhodnutí Rady guvernérů. Zveřejňuje se osmkrát za rok, vždy dva týdny po měnovém zasedání.
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ODPOVĚDNOST
28. dubna 2025
Luis de Guindos
Naše výroční zpráva za rok 2024 je nyní k dispozici v 21 jazycích. Viceprezident Luis de Guindos ji představil Evropskému parlamentu 28. dubna 2025, kdy s europoslanci rovněž hovořil o hospodářském výhledu a významu odolného finančního systému.
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BLOG ECB
30. dubna 2025
Evropští spotřebitelé a cla
Jak by mohla vypadat reakce evropských spotřebitelů na americká obchodní cla? Tím se zabývá příspěvek na našem blogu, který vychází ze šetření očekávání spotřebitelů. Vyplývá z něj, že velká část spotřebitelů by byla více než ochotna přestat kupovat americké zboží – a to nejen kvůli ceně, ale také měnícím se preferencím.
Přečtěte si blog ECB- 2 May 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 30 April 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 30 April 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 29 April 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 29 April 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 29 April 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 29 April 2025
- Speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the conference on “Policy challenges in a fragmenting world: Global trade, exchange rates, and capital flow” organised by the Bank for International Settlements, the Bank of England, the ECB and the International Monetary Fund
- 28 April 2025
- Introductory remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the ECON Committee of the European ParliamentRelated
- 28 April 2025
- EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 25 April 2025
- Statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the fifty-first meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
- 23 April 2025
- Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the IIF Global Outlook Forum “Forging Growth in a Time of Transition” in Washington D.C., United States
- 17 April 2025
- Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 17 April 2025EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 17 April 2025
- 24 March 2025
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Andrés Stumpf
- 16 March 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Jon Ihle
- 7 March 2025
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Patricia Hecht and Beate Willms on 5 February 2025
- 28 February 2025
- Contribution to Bancaria by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, based on remarks at the Crypto Asset Lab Conference on 17 January 2025
- 20 February 2025
- Interview with Frank Elderson, conducted by NVDE
- 30 April 2025
- The ECB Blog explores how European consumers react to the prospect of higher trade tariffs. It finds that many are very willing to switch away from US products.Details
- JEL Code
- F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
- 29 April 2025
- At the end of 2024 – after nearly five years of operations, more than 110, 000 bond market transactions and peak holdings of €1.7 trillion – reinvestments under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) came to an end. This blog post takes stock and highlights some aspects of PEPP implementation in light of the data we now make publicly available.Details
- JEL Code
- E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 25 April 2025
- One year after its announcement, the new operational framework is working as intended. Euro area banks have adapted to declining central bank reserves as the Eurosystem's balance sheet is normalising. The ECB Blog assesses how banks and money markets cope with the new environment.Details
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
ESTR : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
- 18 April 2025
- Central banks usually seek to align very short-term interest rates in the money market with their own policy rate. But money market rates fluctuate also for reasons other than policy. This blog shows that monetary policy is more effective if such fluctuations are small.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 7 April 2025
- Military and diplomatic conflicts harm economic growth. This ECB blog shows that the expected length of wars matters for how strongly they weigh on consumer sentiment.Details
- JEL Code
- D10 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→General
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
- 2 May 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN
- 2 May 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2025Details
- Abstract
- The statistical in-house credit assessment systems (S-ICASs) of the national central banks of the euro area are quantitative systems which can assess the credit quality of a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises in an automated manner. These can help broaden the set of eligible credit claims accepted as collateral in monetary policy operations. The acceptance of S-ICASs in the general collateral framework as of 2026 is based on a newly developed harmonised framework, enhancing risk efficiency, addressing level-playing-field considerations and improving crisis preparedness within the Eurosystem.
- JEL Code
- E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
- 2 May 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2025Details
- Abstract
- The start of Russia’s war on Ukraine in early 2022 led to major errors in inflation and GDP growth forecasts from December 2021 onwards. By the end of 2022 inflation projections were off by 8 percentage points and GDP projections by nearly 1 percentage point. Using the ECB-BASE model, this study finds that about 70% of the inflation error stemmed from unexpected energy and food price shocks. Energy prices were the main drivers in 2022, while food prices gained influence in 2023. Fiscal policies initially eased inflation but later this effect was reversed. Tighter financial conditions impacted GDP in 2023 but had little immediate effect on inflation. Nevertheless, monetary policy played a key role, preventing inflation from rising by up to 2 percentage points in a worst-case scenario. The model underestimated second-round effects, wage-price linkages and labour hoarding. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating non-linear price pass-through effects and labour market dynamics into macroeconomic forecasting models.
- JEL Code
- C5 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
- 2 May 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Average hours worked (AHW) have been declining in recent years, falling particularly strongly during the pandemic before returning to trend. This box examines the key drivers behind the decline in AHW, with two factors playing a dominant role. First, the proportion of employees working zero hours during the reference week spiked during the pandemic – owing to the closure of businesses and higher sick leave rates – and recovered only slowly. Second, the proportion of employees working very long hours has continued to fall over the past decade.
- JEL Code
- J22 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Time Allocation and Labor Supply
- 2 May 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box examines the effects of the tariffs imposed by the first Trump Administration in 2018. It shows that there was a significant decline in Chinese exports to the United States. Despite the potential for increased competitiveness, the euro area did not increase its market share in the United States. Chinese exports found alternative destinations, including South and South-East Asia and the euro area. The analysis highlights the potential channels through which US tariffs on Chinese goods could affect the euro area.
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
- 2 May 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box examines the drivers behind the prolonged resilience of US corporate bond spreads, prior to their recent abrupt widening, in order to better understand the risks of decompression. The previous compression was largely supported by a strong risk appetite and a compositional shift in bond issuance toward higher-quality firms. However, the need to refinance maturing debt in a high-interest rate environment – combined with a rapidly deteriorating risk sentiment – exposes US corporates to heightened vulnerability and increases their sensitivity to adverse shocks.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- 2 May 2025
- SURVEY ON CREDIT TERMS AND CONDITIONS IN EURO-DENOMINATED SECURITIES FINANCING AND OTC DERIVATIVES MARKETSAnnexes
- 2 May 2025
- SURVEY ON CREDIT TERMS AND CONDITIONS IN EURO-DENOMINATED SECURITIES FINANCING AND OTC DERIVATIVES MARKETS
- 30 April 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This article analyses the medium-term fiscal-structural plans that euro area countries have submitted under the revised Stability and Growth Pact. It discusses the fiscal and economic implications of this framework over the short and medium term, also factoring in – on a preliminary basis and acknowledging the major uncertainty ahead – the recent proposal by the European Commission to activate the national escape clause in the Stability and Growth Pact in a coordinated manner. The EU’s new economic governance framework builds on the premise that fiscal sustainability, reforms and investment are mutually reinforcing and should be fostered as part of an integrated approach. The article emphasises the importance of launching the new framework effectively and ensuring appropriate monitoring of reform and investment commitments in the plans. This is also necessary to ensure that additional spending on defence does not endanger fiscal sustainability in the medium term.
- JEL Code
- H11 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government→Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government
H50 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→General
H54 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Infrastructures, Other Public Investment and Capital Stock
H60 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→General
H68 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
- 30 April 2025
- EURO MONEY MARKET
- 29 April 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box explores the newly available five-year-ahead inflation expectations collected in the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (CES). While consumers’ beliefs about longer-term inflation expectations are characterised by substantial heterogeneity and dispersion, the median five-year-ahead expectations have been close to the ECB's 2% inflation target since September 2024. This relative stability contrasts with more variable one-year and three-year expectations, which have been more sensitive to actual changes in inflation. More recent CES data also suggest an increasing concentration of five-year expectations consistent with the ECB’s target, indicating stronger consumer confidence in the ECB’s ability to maintain price stability, as realised inflation has returned to values closer to 2%. Taken together, our analysis supports the value of longer-term expectations for evaluating the anchoring of consumer inflation expectations.
- JEL Code
- D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
- 29 April 2025
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 130Details
- Abstract
- The recent surge in inflation has led to a significant increase in the frequency of price changes, making prices more flexible. Conventional models assume a constant price change frequency, but in state-dependent models the frequency varies with economic conditions. Price flexibility has an impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy. In high inflation periods, frequent price changes make monetary policy more effective in reducing inflation with less impact on economic activity. Therefore, monetary policy should be more aggressive during such periods to stabilise prices efficiently. This approach allows central banks to achieve a “soft landing” with less impact on activity. Overall, central banks should adjust their strategies based on the inflation environment to optimise economic outcomes.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 28 April 2025
- ANNUAL REPORTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Related
- 28 April 2025
- FEEDBACK ON THE INPUT PROVIDED BY THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AS PART OF ITS RESOLUTION ON THE ECB’S ANNUAL REPORTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +Related
- 28 April 2025
- ANNUAL REPORTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 28 April 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box provides a model-based analysis of the impact of discretionary fiscal policy measures on economic growth and inflation since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, as reflected in the March 2025 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area. Fiscal policy lent substantial support to the euro area economy in response to the pandemic and the energy crisis, while adding to public deficits and debt. Overall, the analysis shows that discretionary fiscal policy measures had a strong positive impact on real GDP growth during the years 2020-2022 and were broadly neutral thereafter owing to their partial reversal. They are also estimated to have had an upward effect on inflation overall, particularly during the years 2023-2024. Having introduced energy and inflation compensatory measures in 2022, which helped contain inflation, governments started to withdraw them from 2023. This unwinding contributed to a build-up of inflationary pressures resulting from the fiscal stimulus in previous years.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
O40 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 25 April 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 25 April 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 25 April 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 24 April 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3051Details
- Abstract
- This paper investigates the role of mortgage refinancing in shaping the estimates of marginal propensity to consume (MPC) and its implications for fiscal policy. Using U.S. household data, we find that MPCs decrease during the year of mortgage refinancing and stabilize afterwards, particularly among households with lower liquid assets, higher debtto-income ratios, and valuable illiquid assets. The empirical evidence suggests that refinancing provides extra liquidity, reducing MPCs. We leverage on a partial equilibrium model to quantitatively assess these effects and to explore the role of home-equity extractions for fiscal policy. Our findings highlight a new dimension for the efficacy of cash transfers: targeted programs that consider higher MPCs of no-refinancers generate savings between 4 and 12% compared to non-targeted programs. These estimates imply approximately $30 billions in potential savings under the CARES Act of March 2020.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G51 : Financial Economics
H31 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→Household
- 23 April 2025
- THE EXCHANGE OF BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION STATISTICS – BPM6 - BOOKLETAnnexes
- 23 April 2025
- THE EXCHANGE OF BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION STATISTICS – BPM6 - BOOKLET
- 23 April 2025
- THE EXCHANGE OF BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION STATISTICS – BPM6 - BOOKLET
- 22 April 2025
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
Úrokové sazby
| Vkladová facilita | 2,25 % |
| Hlavní refinanční operace (s pevnou sazbou) | 2,40 % |
| Marginální zápůjční facilita | 2,65 % |
Míra inflace
Více o inflaciSměnné kurzy
| USD | US dollar | 1.1343 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 163.93 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.85330 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9343 |
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