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ELŐADÁS
2024. november 21.
A gazdasági szűk keresztmetszetek kezelése
Időtállóvá kell tennünk Európa gazdaságát a geopolitikai feszültségek, a gazdasági széttagoltság, valamint az éghajlati és természeti veszélyek okozta szűk keresztmetszetekkel szemben, mondta Frank Elderson igazgatósági tag. A monetáris politika számára ez azt jelenti, hogy a rugalmasság megtartása mellett minden figyelmünket a megbízatásunk teljesítésére összpontosítjuk.
Itt olvasható az előadás
ELŐADÁS
2024. november 21.
Kibervédelem az új geopolitikai idényben
A geopolitikai környezet az állami szereplők felé billenti tovább a fenyegetettségi helyzetet, mondta Piero Cipollone igazgatósági tag. Már egy ideje ők felelősek a legsúlyosabb kiberfenyegetésekért, és ez a helyzet valószínűleg a jövőben is megmarad.
Az előadás szövege
PÉNZÜGYI STABILITÁSI JELENTÉS
2024. november 20.
A pénzügyi stabilitási kockázatok továbbra is nagyok
A fokozott geopolitikai és szakpolitikai bizonytalansággal és fokozódó világkereskedelmi feszültségekkel jellemzett környezetben a pénzügyi stabilitással kapcsolatos sérülékenység továbbra is jelentős.
A Pénzügyi stabilitási jelentés megtekintése- 20 November 2024
- PRESS RELEASE
- 19 November 2024
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 19 November 2024
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 19 November 2024
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 19 November 2024
- FAQ
- 19 November 2024
- THE ECB BLOG
- 19 November 2024
- BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (MONTHLY)
- 14 November 2024
- MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNTRelated
- 17 October 2024
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 22 November 2024
- Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the BIS Colloquium in honour of Claudio Borio, Head of the Monetary and Economic Department, in Basel, SwitzerlandRelated
- 22 November 2024
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the 34th European Banking Congress: "Out of the Comfort Zone: Europe and the New World Order"
- 21 November 2024
- Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 27th Annual Research Conference “The Macroeconomic Effects of Geopolitical Uncertainty” organised by De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, Netherlands
- 21 November 2024
- Speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the University of Cyprus, Nicosia
- 21 November 2024
- Introductory remarks by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the tenth meeting of the Euro Cyber Resilience Board for pan-European Financial Infrastructures
- 31 October 2024
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Eric Albert, Philippe Escande and Béatrice Madeline on 28 October 2024
- 29 October 2024
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Domenico Conti
- 8 October 2024
- Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Miha Jenko
- 20 September 2024
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Gonçalo Almeida on 13 September
- 4 September 2024
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eric Albert
- 19 November 2024
- Meeting the EU’s climate neutrality targets calls for deep structural changes and significant private funding, requiring a healthy financial system. That’s why we’ve tested how resilient banks, investment funds and insurers are to stresses arising during the green transition. ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos explains the findings.
- 14 November 2024
- The Eurosystem has started to reduce its bond holdings. This ECB Blog post investigates how strongly the shrinking balance sheet affects long-term interest rates. Estimates based on the Survey of Monetary Analysts suggest: an expected €1 trillion reduction in bond holdings may raise long-term risk-free interest rates by about 35 bps.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 12 November 2024
- Complacency in fighting climate change and preserving biodiversity is endangering our economic survival. The longer we wait, the higher the costs will be. Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, warns of the growing gap between the commitments made and the investment needed.
- 1 November 2024
- As they juggle various cards, apps and devices, most Europeans find that digital payments have fallen short of their promise to provide a convenient euro area-wide solution. The ECB’s Piero Cipollone explains how a digital euro would blend the simplicity of cash with digital convenience.EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (15) +
- 24 October 2024
- People have tended to be quite hesitant to trust banks abroad. That seems to be changing. The ECB Blog shows that cross-border bank deposits of private households have picked up recently.
- 22 November 2024
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 20 November 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2477Details
- Abstract
- This paper demonstrates that empirically grounding the discount factor significantly influences the determination of the carbon price. Using two complementary nonlinear statistical approaches, we assess which utility formulations and corresponding stochastic discount factors best align with U.S. data. We provide evidence that habit formation is essential for capturing the time variation in the stochastic discount factor necessary to match the data. This increased time variation raises the carbon price by 32% and makes it five times more procyclical compared to standard models. The heightened procyclicality reduces aggregate risk, the risk premium, and the need for precautionary savings.
- JEL Code
- Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 20 November 2024
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEWAnnexes
- 20 November 2024
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW
- 20 November 2024
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Structural liquidity mismatches within euro area investment funds are both a source and an amplifier of systemic risk. These funds often offer more favourable redemption terms than the liquidity of their holdings justifies, potentially creating financial stability risks. Negative market shocks can quickly lead to large investor outflows, necessitating substantial asset sales that exert downward pressure on asset prices. This can result in a self-reinforcing cycle of further outflows and increased volatility. Investment funds have a larger footprint in euro area corporate bonds, which tend to be less liquid than other assets. This makes corporate bonds especially susceptible to sharp price declines under forced sale conditions, heightening the likelihood of disorderly market corrections. By contrast, euro area sovereign bonds are relatively resilient due to their higher liquidity and the more diversified investor base, reducing the market impact of sales by specific types of investors. This analysis highlights the need for regulatory adjustments to better safeguard financial stability. Extending redemption notice periods for funds with less liquid assets is a key recommendation, as such measures can help stabilise markets during times of stress by allowing more orderly liquidation and reducing abrupt price impacts.
- JEL Code
- G17 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Financial Forecasting and Simulation
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- 20 November 2024
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2024Details
- Abstract
- This box examines the role of euro area banks in the intermediation of US dollar liquidity and maps the global structure of funding markets and their evolution. Euro area banks have significantly increased their involvement in US dollar repo and FX swap markets, particularly since the onset of the monetary policy tightening cycle in 2022. This increased intermediation exposes euro area banks and their counterparties to potential liquidity risks, especially during periods of market stress. The short-term nature of these markets, combined with high market concentration and the off-balance-sheet nature of FX swaps, can amplify the transmission of shocks. Central bank swap lines are crucial for providing dollar liquidity and mitigating these financial stability risks during times of stress.
- JEL Code
- G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 20 November 2024
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Understanding the drivers of the current downturn in commercial real estate (CRE) can provide insights into the outlook for the market and potential spillovers to the financial system and wider economy. This box uses a BVAR model to show that monetary policy and adverse CRE demand shocks have been the main factors pushing CRE prices down since the start of 2022. Alongside falling prices, asset write-downs have been the primary driver of the recent sharp drop in the headline profits of real estate firms. Moreover, in many cases real estate firms’ revenue growth has not kept pace with their financing costs, which has potential implications for their repayment capacity.
- JEL Code
- R30 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→General
R33 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 20 November 2024
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Recent episodes of widening sovereign bond spreads have led to renewed concerns about financial stability related to sovereign risk in the euro area. Against this backdrop, this box presents an empirical analysis of the shifts in financing conditions for both sovereigns and non-financial corporations, as well as changes in the sovereign bond holdings of domestic and foreign investors following a sovereign stress shock. The analysis finds that financing conditions for sovereigns and firms deteriorate after sovereign stress events, while financial and political uncertainty increase. When sovereign stress events occur, investment funds and global investors withdraw from euro sovereign debt markets, while domestic investors step in.
- JEL Code
- F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 20 November 2024
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2024Details
- Abstract
- This edition of the ECB’s Financial Stability Review (FSR) marks the 20th anniversary of its inaugural publication. The FSR was originally launched to help in preventing financial crises, and this special feature draws lessons from two decades of experience in identifying, analysing and communicating about systemic risks via this publication. Although risk analysis and risk communication are distinct processes, the special feature emphasises that they are inextricably intertwined in a seamless cycle where each informs and enhances the other. Effective risk identification is founded on the ability to combine structured, data-driven assessments with qualitative insights and expert judgement. Such an approach requires a comprehensive and adaptive framework that continuously integrates broad reviews of indicators with focused analyses on emerging risks. Early identification of vulnerabilities enables timely intervention, but the complex, non-linear way that the financial system functions means that flexibility remains essential. Clear and transparent communication of systemic risks supports this analytical process by shaping expectations and enhancing market discipline, creating a feedback loop that strengthens both policy response and risk awareness. However, central banks face the challenge of balancing communication frequency and depth in order to avoid false alarms while at the same time maintaining credibility. As the ECB’s FSR has evolved, it has sought to become more accessible and data-driven, while utilising diverse media channels to broaden its audience. Experience confirms that targeted, proactive communication reinforces financial stability by aligning policymakers and markets, underscoring the symbiotic relationship between risk analysis and effective communication in maintaining financial system resilience.
- JEL Code
- D81 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
- 19 November 2024
- OTHER PUBLICATIONAnnexes
- 19 November 2024
- ANNEX
- 19 November 2024
- FAQRelated
- 19 November 2024
- PRESS RELEASE
- 19 November 2024
- THE ECB BLOG
- 19 November 2024
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2024Details
- Abstract
- The continuing shift from active to passive investing in equity markets over the past decade raises questions about the implications for financial stability along three dimensions. First, empirical evidence suggests that passive investing may increase co-movement among stock returns, making markets more volatile. Second, passive funds may increase equity market concentration, potentially exposing investors to heightened idiosyncratic risks from the largest companies. And third, the ability of equity markets to absorb shocks may be inhibited by the growing concentration of liquidity at closing auctions impacted by passive investing. In summary, passive investing continues to provide benefits to individual investors but might also adversely affect market functioning, thus highlighting the importance of investor heterogeneity.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 18 November 2024
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Productivity growth in the euro area has been declining for several decades. In light of the importance of bank lending as a source of external funding for euro area firms, this special feature investigates the link between firm productivity and bank credit allocation. Bank credit in the euro area has been skewed towards sectors that have contributed only marginally to aggregate productivity growth, such as real estate. Additionally, bank loans tilted towards less-productive firms within the same sectors during the COVID-19 pandemic, supported by state credit guarantees. Banks with weaker balance sheets lent more to less-productive firms during this period than other banks did. The tilt towards less-productive firms could have an indirect effect on aggregate productivity if the survival of less-productive firms suppresses the profitability of more-productive competitors, discouraging market entry and investment. A more diversified external funding structure could help boost the productivity of euro area firms, to the benefit of financial stability.
- JEL Code
- D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 15 November 2024
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 15 November 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 361Details
- Abstract
- Since the March 2023 banking turmoil, a policy debate has emerged concerning the unprecedented scale and speed of the observed deposit outflows. Have recent stress episodes and developments in technology structurally changed depositors’ behaviour? Are the Basel III liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) run-off assumptions for cash outflows still fit for purpose? Leveraging on monthly liquidity reporting for a sample of 110 significant institutions (SIs) between 2016 and 2024, we shed light on some stylised facts pertaining to the composition of deposit flows in the banking union. Overall, we find limited evidence of a structural change in the statistical behaviour of deposit flows to date. For all but one of the deposit classes included in the analysis, more than 90% of observable net outflows remained below the LCR run-off assumptions during the whole sample period. Some extreme deposit outflows recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic and for a few SIs assessed as failing or likely to fail (FOLTF) remain rare tail events for which the LCR standard was not designed.
- JEL Code
- G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 14 November 2024
- LEGAL ACT
- 14 November 2024
- LEGAL ACT
- 14 November 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3001Details
- Abstract
- Contractions in credit supply can lead firms to reduce their level of employment, yet little is known about how these shocks affect the composition of firms’ employees and outcomes at the worker level. This paper investigates how bank distress affects credit provision and its effects on employment beyond firm-level aggregates. To do so, we use a novel dataset built from administrative and tax records linking all banks, firms, and workers in Denmark. We show that banks that were particularly exposed to the 2008-09 financial crisis cut lending to firms, and firms were unable to fully compensate with financing from alternate sources. The decrease in credit supply led to a drop in firm-level employment, with effects concentrated among firms with low pre-crisis liquidity, and on employment of low-educated and nonmanagerial workers. At the worker level, we find that positive effects on unemployment were driven by effects on low-educated, non-managerial and short-tenured workers. Our estimates suggest that cuts in bank lending can account for at least 5% of the fall in employment of low-educated workers in our sample, and are an important factor behind heterogeneous employment dynamics in times of contractionary credit.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
J23 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Demand
- 14 November 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3000Details
- Abstract
- This paper documents the extension of the system-wide stress testing framework of the ECB with the insurance sector for a more thorough assessment of risks to financial stability. The special nature of insurers is captured by the modelling of the liability side and its loss absorbing capacity of technical provisions as the main novel feature of the model. Leveraging on highly granular data and information on bilateral exposures, we assess the impact of liquidity and solvency shocks and demonstrate how a combined endogenous reactions of banks, investment funds and insurance companies can further amplify losses in the financial system. The chosen hypothetical scenario and subsequent simulation results show that insurers’ ability to transfer losses to policyholders reduces losses for the entire financial sector. Furthermore, beyond a certain threshold, insurance companies play a crucial role in mitigating both direct and indirect contagion.
- JEL Code
- D85 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Network Formation and Analysis: Theory
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
L14 : Industrial Organization→Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance→Transactional Relationships, Contracts and Reputation, Networks
- 14 November 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 360Details
- Abstract
- As digital payments become increasingly popular, many central banks are looking into the issuance of retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) as a new central bank monetary liability in addition to banknotes and commercial bank reserves. CBDC will have broadly the same balance sheet and profit implications as the issuance of banknotes. While the decision to issue CBDC is often thought to likely increase the size of central banks’ balance sheets, the net impact of digitalisation on balance sheet size could also be negative, as the number of banknotes in circulation may decline and CBDC’s design features could limit its take-up as a store of value. We use scenario analyses to illustrate the key drivers of the impact of CBDC on central bank profitability, with the part of CBDC that does not derive from an exchange of banknotes being an important factor. The financial risk implications of CBDC for central banks can be managed via well-established frameworks and relate primarily to the impact on balance sheet size and asset composition. The paper concludes with a discussion on how the profit and risk channels affect central bank capital.
- JEL Code
- E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 8 November 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2999Details
- Abstract
- In 1936, John Maynard Keynes proposed that emotions and instincts are pivotal in decision-making, particularly for investors. Both positive and negative moods can influence judgments and decisions, extending to economic and financial choices. Intuitions, emotional states, and biases significantly shape how people think and act. Measuring mood or sentiment is challenging, but surveys and data collection methods, such as confidence indices and consensus forecasts, offer some solutions. Recently, the availability of web data, including search engine queries and social media activity, has provided high-frequency sentiment measures. For example, the Italian National Statistical Institute’s Social Mood on Economy Index (SMEI) uses Twitter data to assess economic sentiment in Italy. The relationship between SMEI and financial market activity, specifically the FTSE MIB index and its volatility, is examined using a trivariate Vector Autoregressive model, taking into account the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
- JEL Code
- C1 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
G4 : Financial Economics
Kamatlábak
| Aktív oldali rendelkezésre állás | 3,65 % |
| Irányadó refinanszírozási műveletek (rögzített kamatláb) | 3,40 % |
| Betéti rendelkezésre állás | 3,25 % |
Inflációs ráta
Bővebben az inflációrólÁrfolyam
| USD | US dollar | 1.0412 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 160.84 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.83205 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9272 |
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