Miles Parker
Economics
- Division
-
Supply Side, Labour and Surveillance
- Current Position
-
Senior Lead Economist
- Fields of interest
-
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,Other Special Topics
- Other current responsibilities
- 2021-
Member, Editorial Board, Economics of Disasters and Climate Change
- Education
- 2012-2016
PhD in Economics, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand
- 2000-2001
MSc Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, United Kingdom
- 1996-2000
BSc Economics with European Studies, University of Warwick, United Kingdom
- 1998-1999
Erasmus, Université de Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne
- Professional experience
- 2022-
Senior Lead Economist, Supply Side, Surveillance & Labour Division, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank
- 2016-2022
Senior Lead Economist / Speechwriter, Counsel to the Executive Board, European Central Bank
- 2008-2016
Adviser, Economics Department, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
- 2010-2011
Senior Economist, International Finance Division, Financial Stability Directorate, Bank of England
- 2006-2008
Economist, Structural Economic Analysis Division, Monetary Analysis Directorate, Bank of England
- 2003-2006
Economist, External Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England
- 2001-2003
Economist, G10 Financial Surveillance Division, Financial Stability Directorate, Bank of England
- Awards
- 2016
Dean's Award for Excellence in Doctoral Research, Victoria University of Wellington
- 24 April 2023
- THE ECB BLOGDetails
- JEL Code
- Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 9 November 2022
- THE ECB BLOGRelated
- 7 November 2022
- THE ECB BLOG
- 2 November 2022
- THE ECB BLOG
- 15 November 2022
- THE ECB BLOG
- 18 November 2022
- THE ECB BLOG
- 8 December 2021
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2626Details
- Abstract
- We contribute to the debate surrounding central banks and climate change by investigating how extreme temperatures affect medium-term inflation, the primary objective of monetary policy. Using panel local projections for 48 advanced and emerging market economies (EMEs), we study the impact of country-specific temperature shocks on a range of prices: consumer prices, including the food and non-food components, producer prices and the GDP deflator. Hot summers increase food price inflation in the near term, especially in EMEs. But over the medium term, the impact across the various price indices tends to be either insignificant or negative. Such effect is largely non-linear, being more significant for larger shocks and at higher absolute temperatures. We also provide simulations from a two-country model to understand the rationale behind the results. Overall, our results suggest that temperature plays a non-negligible role in driving medium-term price developments. Climate change matters for price stability.
- JEL Code
- E03 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Behavioral Macroeconomics
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q51 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Valuation of Environmental Effects
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 21 September 2021
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 271Details
- Abstract
- This paper analyses the implications of climate change for the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area. It first investigates macroeconomic and financial risks stemming from climate change and from policies aimed at climate mitigation and adaptation, as well as the regulatory and fiscal effects of reducing carbon emissions. In this context, it assesses the need to adapt macroeconomic models and the Eurosystem/ECB staff economic projections underlying the monetary policy decisions. It further considers the implications of climate change for the conduct of monetary policy, in particular the implications for the transmission of monetary policy, the natural rate of interest and the correct identification of shocks. Model simulations using the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) illustrate how the interactions of climate change, financial and fiscal fragilities could significantly restrict the ability of monetary policy to respond to standard business cycle fluctuations. The paper concludes with an analysis of a set of potential monetary policy measures to address climate risks, insofar as they are in line with the ECB’s mandate.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 23 February 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2024Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies the role of global factors in causing common movements in consumer price inflation, with particular focus on the food, housing and energy sub-indices. It uses a comprehensive dataset of 223 countries and territories collected from national and international sources. Global factors explain a large share of the variance of national inflation rates for advanced countries
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
- 21 November 2016
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1982Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies how disasters aff ect consumer price inflation, one of the main remaining gaps in our understanding of the impact of disasters. There is a marked heterogeneity in the impact between advanced economies, where the impact is negligible, and developing economies, where the impact can last for several years. There are also di fferences in the impact by type of disasters, particularly when considering inflation sub-indices. Storms in- crease food price inflation in the near term, although the eff ect dissipates within a year. Floods also typically have a short-run impact on inflation. Earthquakes reduce CPI inflation excluding food, housing and energy.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 11 November 2016
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1974Details
- Abstract
- This paper uses a survey of 1281 New Zealand exporters to investigate the role of firm characteristics in setting export prices. Larger, and more productive firms, are more likely to differentiate prices across markets. Primary sector firms are more likely to price to market than firms in other sectors, even taking into account other firm characteristics. This contrasts sharply with the commonly-held view that the price of these products is determined on the international market. In a further contribution to the literature, we find that service sector firms can also price to market, at similar rates to manufacturers.
- JEL Code
- E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 2018
- Journal of Macroeconomics
- 2018
- Economics of Disasters and Climate Change
- 2017
- New Zealand Economic Papers
- 2016
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series
- 2016
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin
- 2014
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Note series
- 2014
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Note Series
- 2014
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin
- 2012
- The Economic Journal
- 2012
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin
- 2008
- Bank of England Working Papers
- 2006
- External MPC Unit Discussion Paper, Bank of England