Miles Parker
Economics
- Division
Supply Side, Labour and Surveillance
- Current Position
-
Senior Lead Economist
- Fields of interest
-
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,Other Special Topics
- Other current responsibilities
- 2021-
Member, Editorial Board, Economics of Disasters and Climate Change
- Education
- 2012-2016
PhD in Economics, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand
- 2000-2001
MSc Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, United Kingdom
- 1996-2000
BSc Economics with European Studies, University of Warwick, United Kingdom
- 1998-1999
Erasmus, Université de Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne
- Professional experience
- 2022-
Senior Lead Economist, Supply Side, Surveillance & Labour Division, Directorate General Economics, European Central Bank
- 2016-2022
Senior Lead Economist / Speechwriter, Counsel to the Executive Board, European Central Bank
- 2008-2016
Adviser, Economics Department, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
- 2010-2011
Senior Economist, International Finance Division, Financial Stability Directorate, Bank of England
- 2006-2008
Economist, Structural Economic Analysis Division, Monetary Analysis Directorate, Bank of England
- 2003-2006
Economist, External Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England
- 2001-2003
Economist, G10 Financial Surveillance Division, Financial Stability Directorate, Bank of England
- Awards
- 2016
Dean's Award for Excellence in Doctoral Research, Victoria University of Wellington
- 25 March 2025
- THE ECB BLOGDetails
- JEL Code
- O10 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→General
Q20 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Renewable Resources and Conservation→General
- 13 February 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Major floods have become recurrent events in Europe and their frequency is set to increase with climate change. Drawing on several pieces of ECB analysis, we show that the economic effects depend largely on economic and institutional factors at the regional level. There is evidence of high-income regions “building back better”, whereas lower-income regions can suffer prolonged periods of lower activity. Insurance and spending on adaptation measures like flood defences can already contain the potential damages from further extreme weather events in the near future.
- JEL Code
- D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J22 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Time Allocation and Labor Supply
R11 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→General Regional Economics→Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 27 November 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3002Details
- Abstract
- The projected increase in extreme climate events in the coming decades is likely to exacerbate the existing productivity and demographic challenges facing Europe. We study the dynamic, medium-run macroeconomic effects of heatwaves, droughts and floods in 1160 EU regions through the lens of a local projections, difference in difference framework. Summer heatwaves and droughts lower medium-term output, but the impact from floods depends on regional income levels. High-income regions witness reconstruction activity, less wealthy regions do not. We find evidence of population decline in affected regions as well as adaptation spending post-event, which lowers regional productivity.
- JEL Code
- D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J22 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Time Allocation and Labor Supply
R11 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→General Regional Economics→Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 24 September 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2024Details
- Abstract
- The role of nature in economic activity is insufficiently incorporated in economic statistics. While economic growth in Europe in recent decades has been lower than in some other regions, it has been achieved alongside a reduction in pollution, and once these benefits have been accounted for, this growth appears more favourable. In 2019 the estimated value of ecosystem services in the EU amounted to over €234 billion. However, understanding how nature loss may affect future output requires more than just calculating the monetary value of ecosystem services, it is crucial to develop and monitor statistical measures that explicitly capture the evolution of nature.
- JEL Code
- D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
E01 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth, Environmental Accounts
Q57 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Ecological Economics: Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity Conservation, Bioeconomics, Industrial Ecology
- 24 September 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Nature is crucial to human wellbeing and provides essential ecosystem services that support economic activity. However, the economic value of these services is often undervalued because they are not traded in markets or given a direct monetary value. Nature degradation, including biodiversity loss, threatens the continued provision of these critical services, potentially leading to significant macroeconomic consequences that affect price and financial stability. Recent analysis by the European Central Bank (ECB) revealed that nearly three-quarters of the euro area economy and financial system are critically dependent on healthy ecosystems. Therefore, a systematic, proactive and comprehensive approach to quantifying and assessing the impact of escalating nature-related economic and financial risks on price and financial stability is essential. This article discusses the implications from a central banking perspective, emphasising the importance of an integrated approach to climate change and nature-related risks. It further explores the impact of these risks on our economy and seeks a deeper understanding of the physical impacts of climate change.
- JEL Code
- C80 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→General
C60 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
Q20 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Renewable Resources and Conservation→General
Q50 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→General
- 27 February 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 341Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies the short-term and long-term consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for productivity in Europe. Aggregate and sectoral evidence is complemented by firm-level data-based findings obtained from a large micro-distributed exercise. Productivity trends during the COVID-19 pandemic differed from past trends. Labour productivity per hour worked temporarily increased, while productivity per employee declined across sectors given the widespread use of job retention schemes. The extensive margin of productivity growth was muted to some degree by the policy support granted to firms. Firm entries declined while firm exits increased much less than during previous crises. The pandemic had a significant impact on the intensive margin of productivity growth and led to a temporary drop in within-firm productivity per employee and increased reallocation. Job reallocation was productivity-enhancing but subdued compared to the Great Recession. As confirmed by a granular data analysis of the distribution of employment subsidies and loan guarantees and moratoria, job reallocation and also debt distribution and“zombie firm” prevalence were not significantly affected by the COVID-19 policy support. The pandemic and related lockdowns accelerated changes in consumer preferences and working habits with potential long-term effects. Generous government support muted the surge in unemployment and reduced permanent scarring effects.
- JEL Code
- D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
H25 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Business Taxes and Subsidies
J38 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Public Policy
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
- 27 February 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 340Details
- Abstract
- The impact of climate change on European Union (EU) countries and regions is poised to exhibit considerable diversity, influenced by factors encompassing average temperature, sectoral composition, developmental stages, and adaptation endeavours. The transition towards a more climate-friendly economy demands a well-orchestrated approach to mitigate enduring productivity costs. This shift will have varied implications for businesses, contingent upon their scale, access to financial resources, and capacity for innovation. The formulation of transition policies holds the potential to foster green innovation without displacing other initiatives, yet stringent climate regulations might impede the productivity ascent of pollutant-emitting enterprises. It will thus take time to reap the benefits of innovation. The efficacy of the policy mix is of critical importance in determining the trajectory of success. Market-driven mechanisms exhibit milder distortions compared to non-market-based strategies, though they may not inherently stimulate innovation. Significantly, subsidies earmarked for green research and development (R&D) emerge as a pivotal instrument for fostering innovation, thus constituting a vital component of the policy repertoire during the green transition. The implementation of transition policies will inevitably trigger a substantial reallocation of resources among and within sectors, potentially carrying short-term adverse ramifications. Notably, considerable productivity disparities exist between top and bottom emitters within specific industries. The transition period poses a risk to a substantial proportion of firms and can erode employment opportunities, with a likely decline in new ventures within affected sectors.
- JEL Code
- D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
L52 : Industrial Organization→Regulation and Industrial Policy→Industrial Policy, Sectoral Planning Methods
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O38 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Government Policy
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
- 18 December 2023
- THE ECB BLOGDetails
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
Q50 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→General
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
Q51 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Valuation of Environmental Effects
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
- 27 September 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This article considers how climate change will affect potential output – the highest level of production that an economy can sustain over the long run without driving up inflation. Higher temperatures and changing rainfall patterns are likely to negatively affect certain sectors, notably agriculture and tourism, and impair workers’ productivity. The green transition involves the reallocation of capital and labour across businesses and sectors. In the long run, the impact on potential output depends on the success of that reallocation and on the rate of progress of green innovation.
- JEL Code
- D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
J22 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Time Allocation and Labor Supply
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O40 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General
R11 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→General Regional Economics→Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
Q57 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Ecological Economics: Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity Conservation, Bioeconomics, Industrial Ecology
- 24 April 2023
- THE ECB BLOGDetails
- JEL Code
- Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 9 November 2022
- THE ECB BLOGRelated
- 7 November 2022
- THE ECB BLOG
- 2 November 2022
- THE ECB BLOG
- 15 November 2022
- THE ECB BLOG
- 18 November 2022
- THE ECB BLOG
- 8 December 2021
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2626Details
- Abstract
- We contribute to the debate surrounding central banks and climate change by investigating how extreme temperatures affect medium-term inflation, the primary objective of monetary policy. Using panel local projections for 48 advanced and emerging market economies (EMEs), we study the impact of country-specific temperature shocks on a range of prices: consumer prices, including the food and non-food components, producer prices and the GDP deflator. Hot summers increase food price inflation in the near term, especially in EMEs. But over the medium term, the impact across the various price indices tends to be either insignificant or negative. Such effect is largely non-linear, being more significant for larger shocks and at higher absolute temperatures. We also provide simulations from a two-country model to understand the rationale behind the results. Overall, our results suggest that temperature plays a non-negligible role in driving medium-term price developments. Climate change matters for price stability.
- JEL Code
- E03 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Behavioral Macroeconomics
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q51 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Valuation of Environmental Effects
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 21 September 2021
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 271Details
- Abstract
- This paper analyses the implications of climate change for the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area. It first investigates macroeconomic and financial risks stemming from climate change and from policies aimed at climate mitigation and adaptation, as well as the regulatory and fiscal effects of reducing carbon emissions. In this context, it assesses the need to adapt macroeconomic models and the Eurosystem/ECB staff economic projections underlying the monetary policy decisions. It further considers the implications of climate change for the conduct of monetary policy, in particular the implications for the transmission of monetary policy, the natural rate of interest and the correct identification of shocks. Model simulations using the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) illustrate how the interactions of climate change, financial and fiscal fragilities could significantly restrict the ability of monetary policy to respond to standard business cycle fluctuations. The paper concludes with an analysis of a set of potential monetary policy measures to address climate risks, insofar as they are in line with the ECB’s mandate.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 23 February 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2024Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies the role of global factors in causing common movements in consumer price inflation, with particular focus on the food, housing and energy sub-indices. It uses a comprehensive dataset of 223 countries and territories collected from national and international sources. Global factors explain a large share of the variance of national inflation rates for advanced countries
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
- 21 November 2016
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1982Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies how disasters aff ect consumer price inflation, one of the main remaining gaps in our understanding of the impact of disasters. There is a marked heterogeneity in the impact between advanced economies, where the impact is negligible, and developing economies, where the impact can last for several years. There are also di fferences in the impact by type of disasters, particularly when considering inflation sub-indices. Storms in- crease food price inflation in the near term, although the eff ect dissipates within a year. Floods also typically have a short-run impact on inflation. Earthquakes reduce CPI inflation excluding food, housing and energy.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 11 November 2016
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1974Details
- Abstract
- This paper uses a survey of 1281 New Zealand exporters to investigate the role of firm characteristics in setting export prices. Larger, and more productive firms, are more likely to differentiate prices across markets. Primary sector firms are more likely to price to market than firms in other sectors, even taking into account other firm characteristics. This contrasts sharply with the commonly-held view that the price of these products is determined on the international market. In a further contribution to the literature, we find that service sector firms can also price to market, at similar rates to manufacturers.
- JEL Code
- E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 2018
- Journal of Macroeconomics
- 2018
- Economics of Disasters and Climate Change
- 2017
- New Zealand Economic Papers
- 2016
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series
- 2016
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin
- 2014
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Note series
- 2014
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Note Series
- 2014
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin
- 2012
- The Economic Journal
- 2012
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin
- 2008
- Bank of England Working Papers
- 2006
- External MPC Unit Discussion Paper, Bank of England