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ANSVARIGHET
25 maj 2023
Vår årsrapport 2022
Vår årsrapport för 2022 finns nu tillgänglig på 22 språk. Vice ordförande Luis de Guindos presenterade rapporten för Europaparlamentet den 25 maj 2023. Han diskuterade även de aktuella ekonomiska utsikterna och hur viktigt det är med ett motståndskraftigt finansiellt system.
Årsrapport
ANSVARIGHET
25 maj 2023
Vår återkoppling på Europaparlamentets resolution
Som del av vårt ansvar har vi precis publicerat vårt senaste återkopplingsdokument, i vilket vi besvarat frågor som ställts av Europaparlamentet i dess resolution om vår årsrapport 2021.
Läs texten
ECB:s BLOGG
25 maj 2023
CO₂-priser: effekter?
Att sätta ett pris på koldioxidutsläpp är viktigt så att ECB kan uppnå sina klimatmål. Men hur påverkas euroområdets ekonomi? I ECB:s senaste blogginlägg undersöks hur makroekonomiska modeller kan förutspå vad högre priser på CO₂-utsläpp innebär för tillväxt och inflation.
Läs blogginlägget- 26 May 2023
- OTHER GOVERNING COUNCIL DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 26 May 2023
- PRESS RELEASE
- 24 May 2023
- EURO AREA INVESTMENT FUNDSAnnexes
- 24 May 2023
- EURO AREA INVESTMENT FUNDS
- 24 May 2023
- EURO AREA FINANCIAL VEHICLE CORPORATION STATISTICSAnnexes
- 24 May 2023
- EURO AREA FINANCIAL VEHICLE CORPORATION STATISTICS
- 23 May 2023
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 23 May 2023
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 26 May 2023
- Panel discussion by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 29th Dubrovnik Economic Conference
- 25 May 2023
- Introductory remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the ECON Committee of the European ParliamentRelated
- 24 May 2023
- Opening remarks by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the celebration to mark the 25th anniversary of the ECBEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 23 May 2023
- Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the Association for Financial Markets in Europe (AFME) and Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) 3rd Annual European Financial Integration Conference
- 19 May 2023
- Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Conference on Financial Stability and Monetary Policy in the honour of Charles Goodhart
- 24 May 2023
- Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Karl de Meyer
- 14 May 2023
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Isabella Bufacchi
- 10 May 2023
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Shogo Akagawa on 8 May 2023
- 25 April 2023
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eric Albert on 18 April 2023
- 24 April 2023
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Johanna Treeck on 20 April 2023
- 25 May 2023
- Carbon pricing is a central instrument in the EU’s fight against climate change, but it will also affect our economies. In this post on The ECB Blog, we use macroeconomic models to look at what higher prices for carbon emissions will do to growth and inflation.Details
- JEL Code
- Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 24 May 2023
- The euro is more than a currency, says President Christine Lagarde. It is the strongest form of European integration and stands for a united Europe that works together, protecting and benefiting all its citizens. The ECB, with its commitment to price stability, will always be a cornerstone of that effort.EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 19 May 2023
- At times, media reports on ECB monetary policy refer to information from unidentified Eurosystem sources. This ECB Blog post takes a closer look at such leaks. They tend to go against prevailing trends in short-term rates and can trigger major market reactions even though they are not generally informative about upcoming decisions.Details
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- 9 May 2023
- Diversity is a matter of sound governance for banks and leads to better decision-making. That is why Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, and Elizabeth McCaul, Member of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, are encouraging banks to improve the diversity of their boards.Details
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
O16 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Financial Markets, Saving and Capital Investment, Corporate Finance and Governance
- 24 April 2023
- The EU has a problem with climate catastrophe insurance: only a quarter of the losses from climate-related disasters are covered. Greater coverage could reduce the economic damage that results from them. This joint ECB-EIOPA post for The ECB Blog looks at ways to make this happen.Details
- JEL Code
- Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 26 May 2023
- MEP LETTER
- 26 May 2023
- OTHER PUBLICATIONAnnexes
- 26 May 2023
- PRESS RELEASE
- 26 May 2023
- CARD FRAUD REPORT
- 26 May 2023
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 107Details
- Abstract
- At the onset of the outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, central banks and supervisors introduced dividend restrictions as a new policy instrument aimed at supporting lending to the real economy and strengthening banks' capacity to absorb losses. In this paper we estimate the impact of the ECB's dividend recommendationon on bank lending and risk-taking. To address identification issues, we rely on credit registry data and a direct measure that captures variation in compliance with the recommendation across banks in the euro area. The analysis disentangles the confounding effects stemming from the wide range of monetary and fiscal policies that supported credit during the pandemic-related downturn and investigates their interaction with the dividend recommendation. We find that dividend restrictions have been an effective policy in supporting financially constrained firms, adding capital space to banks, and limiting procyclical behaviour. The effects on lending are greater for small and medium-sized enterprises and for firms operating in sectors more vulnerable to the effects of the pandemic. At the same time, we do not find evidence of a significant increase in lending to riskier borrowers and "zombie" firms.
- JEL Code
- E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 25 May 2023
- OTHER PUBLICATIONRelated
- 25 May 2023
- OTHER PUBLICATIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +Related
- 25 May 2023
- ANNUAL REPORTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 25 May 2023
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 25 May 2023
- SPEECH
- 25 May 2023
- ANNUAL REPORTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Related
- 24 May 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2822Details
- Abstract
- This paper empirically investigates the effect of the EU-South Korea free trade agreement (FTA) on manufacturing trade flows. By applying a state-of-the-art structural gravity model with intranational (i.e., domestic) trade and using disaggregated data, we quantify both the trade impact and the observed heterogeneity in the FTA estimates. In line with literature, we find that the FTA exerted asymmetric effects in bilateral exports across directions of trade. Compared to previous studies, our findings suggest a different explanation for the poor performances of Korean exports to the EU in the post-FTA period, namely offshoring patterns in electronics and a broad-based decline in the shipbuilding industry. When we drop these two export categories from the analysis, we show that the FTA exerted a large effect on trade in both directions, increasing bilateral exports by about 30 percent. We then investigate heterogeneity in pair-industry-specific estimates of the FTA. The main source of variation is represented by asymmetries in ex ante trade barriers across sectors, with a prominent role for non-tariff instruments. Stronger pre-FTA regulatory intensity is associated to a high liberalization potential, favouring larger FTA estimates.
- JEL Code
- F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
- 23 May 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2821Details
- Abstract
- Understanding of the macroeconomic effects of climate change is developing rapidly, but the implications for past and future inflation remain less well understood. Here we exploit a global dataset of monthly consumer price indices to identify the causal impacts of changes in climate on inflation, and to assess their implications under future warming. Flexibly accounting for heterogenous impacts across seasons and baseline climatic and socio-economic conditions, we find that increased average temperatures cause non-linear upwards inflationary pressures which persist over 12 months in both higher- and lower-income countries. Projections from state-of-the-art climate models show that in the absence of historically un-precedented adaptation, future warming will cause global increases in annual food and headline inflation of 0.92-3.23 and 0.32-1.18 percentage-points per year respectively, under 2035 projected climate (uncertainty range across emission scenarios, climate models and empirical specifications), as well as altering the seasonal dynamics of inflation. Moreover, we estimate that the 2022 summer heat extreme increased food inflation in Europe by 0.67 (0.43-0.93) percentage-points and that future warming projected for 2035 would amplify the impacts of such extremes by 50%. These results suggest that climate change poses risks to price stability by having an upward impact on inflation, altering its seasonality and amplifying the impacts caused by extremes.
- JEL Code
- Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
- 23 May 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2820Details
- Abstract
- This paper analyses the impact of changes in environmental regulations on productivity growth at country- and firm-level. We exploit several data sources and the environmen-tal policy stringency index, to evaluate the Porter hypothesis, according to which firms’ productivity can benefit from more stringent environmental policies. By using panel local projections, we estimate the regulatory impact over a five-year horizon. The identification of causal impacts of regulatory changes is achieved by the estimation of firms’ CO2 emissions via a machine learning algorithm. At country- and firm-level, policy tightening affects high-polluters’ productivity negatively and stronger than their less-polluting peers. However, among high-polluting firms, large ones experience positive total factor productivity growth due to easier access to finance and greater innovativeness. Hence, we do not find support for the Porter hypothesis in general. However for technology support policies and firms with the required resources, policy tightening can enhance productivity.
- JEL Code
- O44 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Environment and Growth
Q52 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Pollution Control Adoption Costs, Distributional Effects, Employment Effects
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
- 19 May 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN
- 19 May 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2023Details
- Abstract
- The euro area’s population is projected to continue ageing and to shrink significantly over the coming generations. The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and the influx of migrants are leaving a mark on the short and medium-term demographic outlook for the euro area compared with the 2019 population projections. This box shows that the resulting demographic outlook is expected to have some positive impact on the growth outlook and to ease the cost-of-ageing pressures on public finances. Overall, however, demographic trends continue to pose significant challenges to the euro area economy, and these challenges should be addressed in a timely manner.
- JEL Code
- R23 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Regional Migration, Regional Labor Markets, Population, Neighborhood Characteristics
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
H50. : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→General
- 19 May 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2023Details
- Abstract
- On 22 February 2023 Eurostat released data on government expenditure for the year 2021 according to the Classification of the Functions of Government (COFOG). These data provide information on the functional composition of government spending in countries across the euro area. The ratio of euro area public expenditure to GDP has increased substantially over recent years, from 46.9% in 2019 to 52.6% in 2021. This increase in spending was primarily in the categories of economic affairs, social protection and health, and reflects the introduction of government measures to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H11 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government→Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government
H20 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→General
H23 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Externalities, Redistributive Effects, Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
H50 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→General
- 19 May 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2023Details
- Abstract
- The increase in consumer goods price inflation in the euro area over the last two years was preceded by a sharp rise in producer prices. Producer price indices (PPIs) capture the prices of goods at the time when these goods leave factory gates. Simple correlation analysis suggests that the strength of the link between producer and consumer price indices can vary over time. Indicators of producer price pressures on consumer price inflation (IPPIs) are constructed using dynamic impulse responses of consumer prices to changes in producer prices (elasticities), obtained with the local projections (LP) estimation method. The IPPIs based on these elasticities and actual PPI data suggest a significant increase in underlying cost pressures over the course of 2022. The level of these pressures remained high for both non-food consumer goods and food products in early 2023. Overall, IPPIs can help to assess the strength and direction of the underlying pressures on NEIG and food prices, but they remain subject to several caveats.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 19 May 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box provides empirical evidence on the role of the recent energy price shock in affecting price competitiveness and euro area export performance. At the aggregate level, an analysis based on a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) shows that the chief drivers of export dynamics in the past two years have been shifts in global demand conditions and the effects of supply bottlenecks. The energy supply shock has played a relatively minor role in dampening overall export growth, lowering it by about one percentage point on average over the past year. However, the energy shock may have played a greater role in more exposed sectors, as euro area exports have decreased strongly in high energy-intensive sectors over the past year. Indicators based on relative prices point to a loss of competitiveness for the euro area during 2022. The medium-term outlook for euro area competitiveness may deteriorate further on account of structural changes in energy costs because of the diversification of gas sources and the energy transition, which may lead to higher input costs for euro area exporters compared with their foreign competitors.
- JEL Code
- F1 : International Economics→Trade
- 19 May 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2023Details
- Abstract
- Large-scale transfers of intellectual property products (IPP) conducted by multinational enterprises in Ireland are increasingly affecting euro area output, investment and trade measures. At the time of transfer, the within-quarter impact of these inflows tends to be neutral for euro area real GDP growth, as IPP transfers are often accompanied by services imports of equal size. However, in subsequent quarters these inflows typically have a positive effect on euro area GDP growth, as they boost both the capital stock and future export streams.
- JEL Code
- E01 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth, Environmental Accounts
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
F23 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Multinational Firms, International Business
F43 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Economic Growth of Open Economies
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
- 17 May 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2819Details
- Abstract
- We use scenario analysis to assess the macroeconomic effects of carbon transition policies aimed at mitigating climate change. To this end, we employ a version of the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) augmented with a framework of disaggregated energy production and use, which distinguishes between “dirty” and “clean” energy. Our central transition scenario is that of a permanent increase in carbon taxes, which are levied as a surcharge on the price of dirty energy. Our findings suggest that increasing euro area carbon taxes to an interim target level consistent with the transition to a net-zero economy entails a transitory rise in inflation and a lasting, albeit moderate decline in GDP. We show that the short and medium-term effects depend on the monetary policy reaction, on the path of the carbon tax increase and on its credibility, while expanding clean energy supply is key for containing the decline in GDP. Undesirable distributional effects can be addressed by redistributing the fiscal revenues from the carbon tax increase to low-income households.
- JEL Code
- C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H23 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Externalities, Redistributive Effects, Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
- 17 May 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box analyses the dynamics of housing investment in the euro area and the United States and discusses the impact of the recent monetary policy tightening on future housing investment in the euro area. Building on the literature, the box argues that deeper mortgage markets, as reflected in higher levels of household mortgage indebtedness, securitisation and leverage, strengthen the transmission of monetary policy shocks to housing investment. In the euro area, where the mortgage markets are less deep, housing investment is found to react relatively less to monetary policy shocks than in the United States. As a result, housing investment in the euro area has been recently more sheltered from monetary policy tightening than housing investment in the United States. Despite this relative resilience of housing investment in the euro area, the box argues that most of the impact of tighter monetary policy in the euro area is still to materialise, thus clouding the outlook for housing investment.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 16 May 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2818Details
- Abstract
- Can banks trade credit default swaps (CDSs) referenced on their current corporate clients at competitive prices, or are banks penalized for potentially holding private information? To answer this question we merge CDS trades reported under the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR) with syndicated loans from DealScan, and compare the prices on similar CDSs that the same dealer offers to banks and to other investors. We find that banks lending to a corporation purchase CDSs on this corporation at lower prices, and that, after trading with banks, dealers can earn higher margins on these CDSs when trading with other investors. Our findings suggest that banks hold valuable private information which is shared in their trades with dealers. Dealers then disseminate this information to financial markets.
- JEL Code
- G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 16 May 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2817Details
- Abstract
- Probabilistic job loss expectations elicited in the Consumer Expectations Survey have predictive power for future job loss. We find that an unexpected job loss leads to a negative consumption response, while this e˙ect is muted for workers with ex-ante job loss expectations - consistent with the Permanent Income Hypothesis. The negative consumption response to an unexpected job loss is stronger for workers who have worse perceptions of the local labour market, are older or have lower levels of liquid wealth. This supports the notion that the persistence of the unemployment shock is an important factor of the consumption response to a job loss. At the same time, we do not find a positive consumption response of workers who unexpectedly retain their job. These heterogeneous results have important implications for the expected impact on consumption of job protection measures such as job retention schemes.
- JEL Code
- D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
J63 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Turnover, Vacancies, Layoffs
Räntor
| Utlåningsfacilitet | 4,00 % |
| Huvudsakliga refinansieringstransaktioner (fast ränta) | 3,75 % |
| Inlåningsfacilitet | 3,25 % |
Inflationstakt
InflationsdashboardVäxelkurser
| USD | US dollar | 1.0715 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 150.29 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.86805 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9683 |
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