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Protecting the euro area economy from global shocks

Unity, not fragmentation, makes us strong, says Executive Board member Fabio Panetta. Acting against fragmentation is necessary for us to fulfil our mandate, and is in the interest of all euro area countries. We must be united to overcome geo-economic challenges.

Speech

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Civil war declaration: On April 14th and 15th, 2012 Federal Republic of Germany "_urkenstaats"s parliament, Deutscher Bundestag, received a antifiscal written civil war declaration by Federal Republic of Germany "Rechtsstaat"s electronic resistance for human rights even though the "Widerstandsfall" according to article 20 paragraph 4 of the constitution, the "Grundgesetz", had been already declared in the years 2001-03. more

#ECBFORUM 28 June 2022

Price stability and policy transmission

The euro area is facing a complex mix of shocks which are reducing growth and pushing up inflation, says President Christine Lagarde. In this environment, it is imperative for policymakers, within their respective mandates, to address the risks to the economic outlook.

Speech
#ECBFORUM 29 June 2022

ECB Forum on Central Banking

This year’s ECB Forum on Central Banking took place from 27 to 29 June. Discussions focused on the challenges for monetary policy in a rapidly changing world.

ECB Forum
#ECBForum 29 June 2022

Young Economist Prize

A group of young economists joined our Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. They presented their research to policymakers, academics and other participants. The prize for the best research paper was awarded to Federico Kochen – a PhD student from Mexico.

Young Economist Prize
29 June 2022
MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EURO AREA
Annexes
28 June 2022
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT
Annexes
28 June 2022
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
27 June 2022
PRESS RELEASE
24 June 2022
OTHER GOVERNING COUNCIL DECISION
23 June 2022
PRESS RELEASE
1 July 2022
Keynote speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the European Parliament’s Innovation Day “The EU in the world created by the Ukraine war”
28 June 2022
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2022 on “Challenges for monetary policy in a rapidly changing world” in Sintra, Portugal
22 June 2022
Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, 10th Annual Conference on Bank Steering & Bank Management at the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management
20 June 2022
Presentation by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Society of Professional Economists Annual Dinner
20 June 2022
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
16 June 2022
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Dein Spiegel on 19 May 2022
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16 June 2022
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Maria Vasileiou
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30 May 2022
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Nuño Rodrigo and Laura Salces on 25 May 2022
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7 May 2022
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Miha Jenko and published on 7 May 2022
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6 May 2022
Interview on Twitter with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted and published on 6 May 2022
23 May 2022
Blog post by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB
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Summary
As the expected date of interest rate lift-off draws closer, it gets more important to clarify the path of policy normalisation ahead of us – especially given the complex environment that monetary policy in the euro area is facing, says President Christine Lagarde in The ECB Blog.
10 February 2022
Blog post by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
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Summary
Looking at inflation dynamics, the relative price dislocations associated with bottlenecks are intrinsically short-term, Chief Economist Philip R. Lane writes in The ECB Blog. An increase in the relative price for a scarce item will stimulate new supply, while cooling demand.
31 December 2021
Blog post by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB
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Europe and the euro have become inseparable, President Christine Lagarde writes in The ECB Blog to mark the 20th anniversary of euro banknotes and coins. She recalls her first encounter with a euro banknote, and reflects on how far the euro has come and what lies ahead.
19 November 2021
Blog post by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
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Summary
To continue playing its role as the anchor of the monetary system, central bank money will need to respond to evolving needs, says Executive Board member Fabio Panetta. This means that we must intensify the work on central bank digital currencies.
4 November 2021
Blog post by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB
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Summary
The COP26 summit is a vital opportunity to set out a clear path towards a zero-carbon world, President Lagarde writes in a blog post. While the road ahead may seem daunting, she argues that a credible transition path will need clear signposts to break it up into more manageable stages.
1 July 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2676
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Abstract
Since most macroeconomic data are revised after the initial release both researchers andpolicy-makers have no choice rather than recognising and understanding the revisions. Thispaper analyses revisions to the fiscal data in the euro area, also by contrasting them with the’better-understood’ macro revisions. Concretely, the study verifies whether fiscal revisionsfulfil requirements to treat them as well-behaved. To this end, we construct a fiscal quarterlyreal-time dataset, which contains quarterly releases of Government Finance Statistics andwhich is supplemented by macro variables from Main National Accounts. Fiscal revisionsdo not satisfy desirable properties expected from well-behaved revisions. In particular, theytend to have a positive bias, they exhibit a big dispersion and they are largely predictable.Also, they are similar to macro revisions, in particular since 2014, which contradicts theoften heard view about fiscal data being subject to particularly large revisions.
JEL Code
C80 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→General
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
1 July 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2675
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Abstract
Digitalisation can be described as a sequence of technology and supply shocks which affect the economy through employment and labour markets, productivity and output, and competition and market structure. This paper focuses on how digitalisation - the process of diffusion of digital technologies - is affected by institutions and governance. It discusses a number of theoretical mechanisms and empirical evidence for different sets of European and other countries. The results indicate that a higher quality of institutions is usually associated with both a greater speed of diffusion and a greater spread of digital technologies. The results also suggest that there are large, policy-relevant differences in the diffusion process depending on the level of development as well as the state of technological change of a country.
JEL Code
E02 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Institutions and the Macroeconomy
O11 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O31 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O57 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Comparative Studies of Countries
1 July 2022
OTHER PUBLICATION
30 June 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2674
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Abstract
This paper studies the bilateral drivers of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) between European banks. Two findings document that banks use M&A as a device to leverage their expertise rather than to diversify. (i) Following the literature on matrimonial matching by using a binary logit model, the paper examines how the structure of acquiring banks in terms of geographical location (headquarters and subsidiaries) influences the choice of targeted banks for an M&A transaction. It finds that banks favour domestic expansion over international diversification. (ii) The paper investigates how the business model of acquiring banks determines their selection of targeted banks. Very often, banks tend to target counterparts with the same business model or, to a lesser extent, those with the same business model as one of their subsidiaries.
JEL Code
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G34 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Mergers, Acquisitions, Restructuring, Corporate Governance
L22 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior→Firm Organization and Market Structure
30 June 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2673
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Abstract
Using a novel quarterly dataset on debt financing of non-financial corporations, this paper provides the first empirical evaluation of the relative importance of loan and market-based finance (MBF) supply shocks on business cycles in the euro area as a whole and in its five largest countries. In a Bayesian VAR framework, the two credit supply shocks are identified via sign and inequality restrictions. The results suggest that both loan supply and MBF supply play an important role for business cycles. For the euro area, the explanatory power of the two credit supply shocks for GDP growth variations is comparable. However, there is heterogeneity across countries. In particular, in Germany and France, the explanatory power of MBF supply shocks exceeds that of loan supply shocks. Since MBF is mostly provided by non-bank financial intermediaries, the findings suggest that strengthening their resilience — such as through an enhanced macroprudential framework — would support GDP growth.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G2 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services
27 June 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2672
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Abstract
This paper studies the long-run evolution of bank risk and its links to the macroeconomy. Using data for 17 advanced economies, we show that the riskiness of bank assets declined materially between 1870 and 2016. But even though bank assets have become safer, the losses on these assets are associated with increasingly large output gaps. Before 1945, bank asset returns had no excess predictive power for future economic activity, while after 1945 they have outperformed non-financials as a predictor of GDP. We provide evidence linking this increasing connectedness between banks and the macroeconomy to secular increases in financial and macroeconomic leverage.
JEL Code
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
N20 : Economic History→Financial Markets and Institutions→General, International, or Comparative
O16 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Financial Markets, Saving and Capital Investment, Corporate Finance and Governance
Network
ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship Programme
27 June 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2671
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Abstract
We build a model to simulate how the euro area market-based financial system may function under stress. The core of the model is a set of representative agents reflecting key economic sectors, which interact in asset, funding, and derivatives markets and face solvency and liquidity constraints on their behaviour. We illustrate the model's behaviour in a two-layer approach. In Layer 1 the deterioration in the outlook for the corporate sector triggers portfolio reallocation by the model's agents. Layer 2 adds a rating downgrade shock where a fraction of investment grade corporate bonds is downgraded to high yield, which creates further rebalancing pressure and price movements. The model predicts (i) asset flows (buying and selling of marketable securities) across agents and (ii) balance sheet losses. It also provides quantitative evidence on equilibrium effects of the macroprudential regulation of nonbanks, which we illustrate by varying investment fund cash buffers.
JEL Code
G17 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Financial Forecasting and Simulation
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
27 June 2022
OTHER PUBLICATION
24 June 2022
RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 97
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Abstract
Throughout the world, the global financial crisis fostered the design and adoption of macroprudential policies to safeguard the financial system. This raises important questions for monetary policy, which, by contrast, primarily focuses on maintaining price stability. What, if any, is the relationship between (conventional) monetary policy and macroprudential policy? In particular, how does the effectiveness of macroprudential policies influence the conduct of monetary policy? This article reviews recent theoretical and empirical research addressing these questions. The main conclusion is that monetary policy can also perform macroprudential functions, but it does so by deviating from its focus on price stability. The quantification of this trade-off remains an exciting question.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Network
Research Task Force (RTF)
23 June 2022
FORUM ON CENTRAL BANKING
23 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN
23 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
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Abstract
The debt financing structure of euro area firms has broadened since the introduction of the euro. While bank loans still account for a major share of corporate debt, euro area firms have increasingly resorted to bond financing over the past decade and a half. Empirical evidence suggests that this shift in firms’ debt financing structures affects the transmission of shocks to the euro area economy. While corporate bonds and loans typically respond in a similar procyclical manner to exogenous changes in business investment, bond issuance tends to mildly cushion the credit contraction resulting from adverse supply shocks. The evidence also indicates that a higher share of bond financing strengthens the transmission of monetary policy measures that primarily operate via longer-term yields, whereas short-term rate changes tend to exert stronger real effects in economies that are more dependent on loans. From a broader perspective, the higher share of bond financing renders euro area firms more resilient against crises concentrated in the banking sector. However, this benefit may be counteracted by a rising presence of more vulnerable firms in the corporate bond market and by the structural vulnerabilities of non-bank financial intermediaries, which are significant investors in that market.
JEL Code
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
23 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
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Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations during the first and second maintenance periods of 2022 from 9 February to 19 April 2022.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
23 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
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Abstract
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has hit economic confidence and increased uncertainty in the euro area. This box illustrates how the increased uncertainty is being transmitted to the economy, adopting a two-step approach. In the first step, the uncertainty shock is identified using a structural vector autoregression model with sign and narrative restrictions. In the second step, the identified shock is used to compute losses in domestic demand, employing local projection methods. The box shows that the uncertainty shock witnessed in the period to April will have a material adverse impact on domestic demand, estimated to be larger for business investment than for consumption. Across sectors, the effect is estimated to be larger for manufacturing than for services and larger for durable goods than for non‑durables.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
22 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
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Abstract
This box assesses the extent to which current private sector forecasts point to expectations of stagflation in the euro area reminiscent of the stagflation episode in the 1970s. Stagflation refers to a protracted period of flat or negative growth combined with high or increasing inflation, as witnessed in the main advanced economies in the 1970s. Private forecasters do not currently envisage a period of stagflation for the euro area.
JEL Code
E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
N14 : Economic History→Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics, Industrial Structure, Growth, Fluctuations→Europe: 1913?
22 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
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Abstract
This box summarises the findings of a survey of leading firms on the impact of climate change and related measures to green the economy on business, and thus on activity and prices. The survey responses indicate that during the transition to a net-zero economy large companies anticipate significantly higher investment, input costs and price pressures, as well as changes to production and market structures. However, only a small share of respondents expect a significant impact on investment, input cost and prices after the transition. As regards the challenges involved, firms emphasise issues related to the availability of new clean technologies and inputs, followed by concerns about costs and regulation. Firms expect physical risks to have an impact in particular on the agricultural, construction and transport sectors, and on firms in the manufacturing sector with vulnerable supply chains.
JEL Code
C83 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Survey Methods, Sampling Methods
M21 : Business Administration and Business Economics, Marketing, Accounting→Business Economics→Business Economics
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
Q5 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics
21 June 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2670
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Abstract
We identify the effect of climate change-related regulatory risks on credit real-location. Our evidence suggests that effects depend borrower's region. Following an increase in salience of regulatory risks, banks reallocate credit to US frms that could be negatively impacted by regulatory interventions. Conversely, in Europe, banks lend more to firms that could benefit from environmental regulation. The effect is moderated by banks' own loan portfolio composition. Banks with a portfolio tilted towards firms that could be negatively a affected by environmental policies increasingly support these firms. Overall, our results indicate that financial implications of regulation associated with climate change appear to be the main drivers of banks' behavior.
JEL Code
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
Q51 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Valuation of Environmental Effects
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
21 June 2022
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 296
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Abstract
The euro area, like many other advanced economies, has entered an era of drastic demographic change. Without appropriate policy responses, population ageing in the euro area is posing formidable challenges for potential growth, monetary policy and public finances. This paper examines – from a central bank’s perspective – the macroeconomic and fiscal effects of population ageing in the euro area and looks at the main challenges ahead in the next decades. Total population in the euro area is projected to decline as of around 2035, while the old-age dependency ratio will rise strongly in the coming 15 years, putting additional burden on pension systems. The analysis in the paper finds that the demographic changes in the euro area present a drag on potential growth, mainly through labour supply and productivity growth – similarly to developments in Japan, which is ahead of the euro area in terms of population ageing. Precautionary savings may be higher, and the natural rate of interest lower, while the effect on trend inflation and wages are not obvious. Population ageing is posing a burden on fiscal policy, through upward pressure on pension spending and adversely affecting the tax bases and the structure of public revenues. Thus, it poses significant challenges for fiscal sustainability, limits fiscal policy space and effectiveness. To safeguard against the adverse economic and fiscal consequences of population ageing, there is a need for fiscal buffers, improved quality of public finance and structural reforms.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
21 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
Details
Abstract
Record-high energy price increases at the end of 2021 and beginning of 2022 put significant pressures on the purchasing power of consumers. These increases followed a marked decline in energy prices at the onset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. While the initial increase in energy prices from the summer of 2020 was mainly driven by the recovery in energy demand following the easing of lockdown measures after the first wave of the pandemic, the subsequent price rally during 2021 was also significantly affected by supply-side issues. This development was aggravated in early 2022 by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The increase in European gas prices since the summer of 2021 has been particularly sharp, reflecting a combination of supply and demand factors that left European gas inventories at historically low levels ahead of the winter season and the gas market vulnerable to supply and demand uncertainty, including from escalating geopolitical tensions. As a result, consumer gas prices and consumer electricity prices (driven by gas prices) played an increasingly important role in developments in HICP energy and were also accompanied by unprecedented cross-country heterogeneity in energy price developments.
JEL Code
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
Q02 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Global Commodity Markets
L90 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities→General
21 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
Details
Abstract
In this box, we present a new measure of domestic inflation for the euro area that takes into account the import intensity of HICP items. For this new indicator, the import intensities of HICP items are derived using information from national accounts and input-output tables. The HICP items with a relatively low import intensity are subsequently aggregated to a “Low IMport Intensity” (LIMI) inflation indicator. Differently to the literature, an empirical assessment is used to determine an optimal threshold for these import intensities. While the ECB’s inflation target is formulated in terms of headline inflation, the concept of domestic inflation is of analytical relevance to monetary policy, as it features prominently in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Common indicators of domestic inflation, such as the GDP deflator or core inflation, either include elements that are not directly related to consumer prices or exclude volatile components that may nonetheless be driven by domestic factors. The LIMI inflation indicator can complement the information provided by these other indicators in an assessment of the underlying inflationary pressures.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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