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Clémence Briodeau
- 5 December 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2880Details
- Abstract
- This paper estimates a fiscal reaction function (FRF) framework for euro area countries to test for the impact of changes in inflation on fiscal policy. We find evidence of non-linear short-term effects of HICP inflation on the primary balance after controlling for other relevant factors. Over the period 1999-2022, we unveil an inverse U-turn relationship and an inflation turning point - beyond which its short-term (contemporaneous) impact on the primary balance starts being negative - at somewhat above 4% for the sample of mature euro area economies (EA-12, first twelve EA members) and around 6% for the whole sample of euro area countries in 2022 (EA-19). Using an alternative measure of “inflation surprise” (available for the period 2003-2022) yields robust results in the larger EA-19 sample and lowers the threshold to just below 5%. In terms of channels, the non-linear effects are found to propagate through both the primary expenditure and the revenue ratio (more robustly through the former) in the EA-12 sample, while only the combined effect on the primary balance seems to prevail for EA-19. These results reflect primarily the most recent high inflation episode and indicate that in such conditions inflation can be costly for public finance flows even in the shorter run.
- JEL Code
- H60 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→General
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
C33 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
- 24 October 2023
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 332Details
- Abstract
- The recent spike in inflation, unprecedented in the history of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), has had major consequences for all areas of the economy, including public finances. This paper aims to provide a detailed assessment of the effects of high inflation on fiscal accounts in the euro area. Relying on the wealth of expertise in the Eurosystem – within the Working Group on Public Finance – it documents spending indexation arrangements in all euro area countries. Thanks to this knowledge, the ECB’s fiscal projection platform, which is the primary evaluation tool for this study, establishes a realistic link between prices and fiscal variables. The results of this paper bring into question the conventional wisdom on the overall positive effects of inflation on fiscal accounts. Indeed, the simulations point to adverse effects from the recent inflation surge, mainly triggered by an external supply shock, on budget balances during 2022-24. This is even without taking into account the negative impact of inflation on the real economy, mainly through monetary policy tightening. The analysis also points to the important role of the denominator effect for debt-to-GDP ratios, which may fall even in the absence of benefits for the budget balance. Finally, the analysis reveals a high degree of heterogeneity across countries.
- JEL Code
- C3 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook