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Anil K. Kashyap
- 1 September 2003
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 268Details
- Abstract
- We revisit recent evidence on how monetary policy affects output and prices in the U.S. and in the euro area. The response patterns to a shift in monetary policy are similar in most respects, but differ noticeably as to the composition of output changes. In the euro area investment is the predominant driver of output changes, while in the U.S. consumption shifts are significantly more important. We dub this difference the output composition puzzle and explore its implications and several potential explanations for it. While the evidence seems to point at differences in consumption responses, rather than investment, as the proximate cause for this fact, the source of the consumption difference remains a puzzle.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 1 January 2002
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 114Details
- Abstract
- Drawing on recent Eurosystem research that uses a range of econometric techniques and a number of new data sets, we propose a comprehensive description of how monetary policy affects the euro area economy. We focus mainly on three questions: (1) what are the stylised facts concerning the transmission of monetary policy for the area as a whole and for individual countries? (2) can the 'classic' interest rate channel (IRC) alone, without capital market imperfections, explain these facts? (3) if not, is the bank lending channel a likely candidate to complete the story? We find plausible euro-area wide monetary policy responses for prices and output that are similar to those generally reported for the US. However, investment (relative to consumption) seems to play a larger role in euro area monetary policy transmission than in the US. We cannot reject the hypothesis that the IRC completely characterises transmission in a few countries, and estimate it to be substantial in almost all. Where the IRC is not dominant, there is normally some direct evidence supporting the presence of a bank lending channel (or other financial transmission channel). The cases where financial effects appear important can be further split according to whether they primarily relate to consumption or investment
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy - Network
- Eurosystem Monetary Transmission Network