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EXPLAINER

Why have we raised interest rates?

We have raised interest rates for the first time in 11 years, and more increases are likely in the coming months. Why have we raised them? How do they affect inflation? And what does our decision mean for you?

Read our explainer

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Civil war declaration: On April 14th and 15th, 2012 Federal Republic of Germany "_urkenstaats"s parliament, Deutscher Bundestag, received a antifiscal written civil war declaration by Federal Republic of Germany "Rechtsstaat"s electronic resistance for human rights even though the "Widerstandsfall" according to article 20 paragraph 4 of the constitution, the "Grundgesetz", had been already declared in the years 2001-03. more

THE ECB BLOG 10 August 2022

Our new inflation target one year on

One year after the strategy review, we find that our new monetary policy strategy has contributed to a more solid anchoring of inflation expectations at 2%. How do our recent policy decisions fit in with our new strategy?

Blog post
PODCAST 11 August 2022

Digitalisation: inflation, climate and the euro

How can digitalisation help central banks? And what role does cutting-edge technology play? In this episode, host Katie Ranger talks about this and more with Claudia Plattner, our head of information systems.

The ECB Podcast
THE ECB BLOG 10 August 2022

The ECB Blog

Topics for upcoming posts include the impact of price changes by gender and the benefits of explaining inflation targets. Subscribe to receive new posts in your inbox as they are released.

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21 July 2022
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 21 July 2022
4 July 2022
Remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the Frankfurt Euro Finance Summit
2 July 2022
Presentation by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Petersberger Sommerdialog
1 July 2022
Keynote speech by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the European Parliament’s Innovation Day “The EU in the world created by the Ukraine war”
28 June 2022
Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2022 on “Challenges for monetary policy in a rapidly changing world” in Sintra, Portugal
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (3) +
29 July 2022
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Tõnis Oja on 25 July
English
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16 June 2022
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Dein Spiegel on 19 May 2022
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
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16 June 2022
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Maria Vasileiou
English
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30 May 2022
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Nuño Rodrigo and Laura Salces on 25 May 2022
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
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7 May 2022
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Miha Jenko and published on 7 May 2022
English
OTHER LANGUAGES (1) +
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10 August 2022
As part of our monetary policy strategy review we adopted a new symmetric 2% inflation target. One year on, we examine how the strategy review has helped anchor financial analysts’ inflation expectations. We also show that recent policy normalisation is grounded in our strategy.
Details
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
e31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
28 July 2022
Non-immigrants in the euro area are on average better off than immigrants in terms of wages and wealth. These differences can cause immigrants to react differently to economic shocks and changing financial conditions. As economic inequality matters for monetary policy transmission, the ECB Blog takes a closer look.
23 July 2022
Raising interest rates is a landmark moment on our journey towards lower inflation, writes President Christine Lagarde in The ECB Blog.
13 July 2022
It is our responsibility to preserve the integrity of the monetary and payment systems, write President Christine Lagarde and Executive Board member Fabio Panetta. A digital euro could play a decisive role in this endeavour.
8 July 2022
The ECB is reducing the carbon footprint in its portfolio and pushing banks to better manage climate risks. Within our mandate, we incorporate climate change considerations into our monetary policy and banking supervision, say Frank Elderson and Isabel Schnabel.
12 August 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2709
Details
Abstract
Between 2000 and 2007, the gender gap in earnings in the US real estate sector increased, especially in local markets where house prices appreciated relatively more. Firm frictions and the presence of small children in the household do not explain the widening of the gender gap, while sorting on entry and gender identity in relative income do. First, the industry attracted relatively more females with no prior experience, especially in booming local housing markets. Second, labor supply increased relatively more for experienced males with at least some college education who earn less than their spouses.
JEL Code
J16 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Economics of Gender, Non-labor Discrimination
L85 : Industrial Organization→Industry Studies: Services→Real Estate Services
O18 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis, Housing, Infrastructure
12 August 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2708
Details
Abstract
This paper investigates the relationship between central bank (reverse) auctions and bill market liquidity. The analysis includes data on the purchases of bills in the auctions by the Dutch Central Bank under the European Central Bank’s Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP). The results indicate that auctions contribute to smooth market functioning. Two findings stand out. First, by purchasing bills using auctions rather than bilaterally, the central bank increases the bid-to-cover ratio at bill issuance, especially in times of stress. Second, bills are offered at larger sizes and lower prices in central bank auctions near primary issuance.
JEL Code
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
11 August 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2707
Details
Abstract
Globalisation has a major impact on the levels and distribution of wealth. The financial markets are highly integrated, and valuations of financial assets follow international patterns, which has contributed to large increases in financial wealth over the past 25 years. Nonetheless, this has not led to an equally large increase in property income because the rates of return have decreased during the same era. Moreover, changes in functional income distribution (capital/labour shares) have not been fully transmitted to the distribution of primary income between households because other institutional sectors – particularly the government sector – hold considerable amounts of financial assets. At least in the short term, the decrease in rates of return seems to contradict claims that, due to an increase in both financial and inherited wealth, we are entering an era of increasing income inequality. In this article, the link between financial wealth and pre-tax household income distribution is scrutinised for three European countries using a conceptually fully consistent macro framework. First, national balance sheets are combined with the related income flows. After this, income flows that are not property income but are considered part of national income (e.g., wages and salaries) are added, the national income flows are broken down by institutional sector and the household sector income flows separated. Finally, distributional household micro data are used to break down the aggregate household sector income flows by income decile. The article utilises this framework to analyse the evolution of rates of return and capital and labour shares as well as how the property income flows created by financial wealth have affected household primary income distribution.
JEL Code
D10 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→General
D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
D32 : Microeconomics→Distribution
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
G51 : Financial Economics
11 August 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2706
Details
Abstract
We show that dealer market power impedes the pass-through of monetary policy in repo markets, which is an important first stage of monetary policy transmission. In the European repo market, most participants do not have access to trade on centralized exchanges. Rather, they rely on OTC intermediation by a small number of dealers that exhibit significant market power. As a result, the passthrough of the ECB’s policy rate to the majority of non-dealer banks and non-banks is inefficient and unequal in repo markets. Our estimates imply that a secured funding facility like the Fed’s RRP may alleviate dealer market power and improve the transmission efficiency of monetary policy to banks and non-bank financial institutions.
JEL Code
E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
G2 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services
10 August 2022
OTHER PUBLICATION
10 August 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2705
Details
Abstract
Parliamentary hearings are a fundamental tool to hold independent central banks accountable. However, it is not clear what type of information central banks provide when they communicate with parliaments compared to other existing information channels. In this article, we address this question by comparing the communication of the European Central Bank (ECB) in parliamentary hearings to its communication in the regular press conferences that follow monetary policy decisions. Using text analysis on the ECB President’s introductory statements in parliamentary hearings and press conferences from 1998 to 2021, we show that the ECB uses parliamentary hearings to discuss topics that are less covered in press conferences. We also find that the ECB’s policy stance in the hearings tends to reflect the stance in press conferences, and that the degree of language complexity is similar in the two fora. These findings support the view that the ECB mainly uses parliamentary hearings to further explain policy decisions first presented at press conferences but also to put them in a broader context.
JEL Code
E02 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Institutions and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
Network
Discussion papers
10 August 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2704
Details
Abstract
We present a quantitative model of deposit insurance. We characterize the policymaker’s optimal choices of coverage for depositors and premiums raised from banks. Premiums contribute to a deposit insurance fund that lowers taxpayers’ resolution cost of bank failures. We find that risk-adjusted premiums reduce moral hazard, enabling the policymaker to increase deposit insurance coverage by 3 percentage points and decrease the share of expected annual bank failures from 0.66% to 0.16%. The model predicts a fund-to-covered-deposits ratio that matches the data and declines in taxpayers’ income due to taxpayers’ risk aversion.
JEL Code
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
Network
ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship Programme
9 August 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2703
Details
Abstract
Recent research has argued that the COVID-19 shock has also brought about a reallocation shock. We examine the evidence for such an occurrence in the United States, taking a broad perspective. We first consider micro data from CPS and JOLTS; there is no noticeable uptick in occupation or sector switches, nor churn, either at the aggregate level or the cross-section, or when broken down by firms’ size. We then examine whether mismatch unemployment has risen as a result of the pandemic; using an off-the-shelf multisector search and matching model, there is little evidence for an important role for mismatch in driving the elevated unemployment rate. Finally, we employ a novel Bayesian SVAR framework with sign restrictions to identify a reallocation shock; we find that it has played a relatively minor role in explaining labor market patterns in the pandemic, at least relative to its importance in earlier episodes.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J63 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→Turnover, Vacancies, Layoffs
9 August 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2702
Details
Abstract
Macroprudential policies should strengthen the banking sector throughout the financial cycle. However, while bank credit growth is used to capture cyclical exuberance and calibrate buffer requirements, it depends on potentially heterogeneous dynamics on the borrower and lender side. By decomposing credit growth into a common component and components capturing heterogeneity in supply and demand à la Amiti and Weinstein, 2018 applied on the euro area credit register ("AnaCredit"), we can inform the policy debates in two ways. Ex ante, we introduce a framework mapping the decomposition to different types of macroprudential instruments, specifically broad vs. targeted measures. Ex post, we also show that the resulting decomposition can be used to assess the effectiveness of adopted measures on credit supply or demand. We find evidence that buffer releases and credit guarantees increased bank credit supply during the COVID-19 pandemic and interacted positively with banks' profitability.
JEL Code
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
8 August 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2701
Details
Abstract
We develop a two-sector incomplete markets integrated assessment model to analyze the effectiveness of green quantitative easing (QE) in complementing fiscal policies for climate change mitigation. We model green QE through an outstanding stock of private assets held by a monetary authority and its portfolio allocation between a clean and a dirty sector of production. Green QE leads to a partial crowding out of private capital in the green sector and to a modest reduction of the global temperature by 0.04 degrees of Celsius until 2100. A moderate global carbon tax of 50 USD per tonne of carbon is 4 times more effective.
JEL Code
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
8 August 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2700
Details
Abstract
In this article, we present a new perspective on forecasting technology adoption, focused on the extensive margin of adoption of multiple digital technologies in multiple countries. We do this by applying a Bayesian hierarchical structure to the seminal model of technology diffusion. After motivating the new perspective and the choices of priors, we apply the resulting framework to a cross-continental data set for EU and OECD countries and different digital technologies adopted by either households/individuals or by businesses. The results illustrate that the Bayesian hierarchical structure may be used to assess and predict both the adoption process and the uncertainty surrounding the data, and is robust to the use of alternative priors. They point to heterogeneity across countries and across technologies, mostly in the timing of adoption and, although to a lesser extent, the steady-state adoption rate once technologies are fully diffused. This suggests that characteristics of countries and technologies matter for technology diffusion.
JEL Code
C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C52 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
O57 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Comparative Studies of Countries
8 August 2022
OTHER PUBLICATION
5 August 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2699
Details
Abstract
Despite its stability over time, as for any statistical relationship, Okun’s law is subject to deviations that can be large at times. In this paper, we provide a mapping between residuals in Okun’s regressions and structural shocks identified with a SVAR model by inspecting how unemployment responds to the state of the economy. We show that deviations from Okun’s law are a natural and expected outcome once one takes a multi-shock perspective, as long as shocks to automation, labour supply and structural factors in the labour market are taken into account. Our simple recipe for policy makers is that, if a positive deviation from Okun’s law arises, it is likely to be generated by either positive labour supply or automation shocks or by negative structural factors shocks.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
5 August 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2698
Details
Abstract
We propose the CoJPoD, a novel framework explicitly linking the cross-sectional and cyclical dimensions of systemic risk. In this framework, banking sector distress in the form of the joint probability of default of financial intermediaries (reflecting contagion from both direct and indirect interconnectedness) is conditioned on the financial cycle (reflecting the buildup and unwinding of system-wide balance sheet leverage). An empirical application to large systemic banks in the euro area, US and UK illustrates how the unravelling of excess leverage can magnify banking sector distress. Capturing this dependence of banking sector distress on prevailing financial imbalances can enhance risk surveillance and stress testing alike. An empirical signaling exercise confirms that the CoJPoD outperforms the individual capacity of either its unconditional counterpart or the financial cycle in signaling financial crises particularly around their onset - suggesting scope to increase the precision with which macroprudential policies are calibrated.
JEL Code
C19 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Other
C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
4 August 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2697
Details
Abstract
The ability of monetary policy to influence the term structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy depends on the extent to which financial market participants prefer to hold bonds of different maturities. We microfound such preferred-habitat demand in a fully-specified dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the macroeconomy where the term structure is arbitrage-free. The source of preferred habitat demand is an insurance fund that issues annuities and adopts a liability-driven strategy to minimise the duration risk on its balance sheet. The optimising behaviour of the insurance fund implies a preferred-habitat demand function that is upward-sloping in bond prices and downward-sloping in bond yields, especially when interest rates are low. This supports the operation of a recruitment channel at low interest rates, whereby long-term interest rates react strongly to short-term policy rates because of complementary changes in term premia induced by preferred-habitat demand. The strong reaction extends to inflation and output in general equilibrium, a through-the-looking-glass result that challenges conventional wisdom that preferred habitat weakens the transmission of monetary policy.
JEL Code
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G22 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Insurance, Insurance Companies, Actuarial Studies
4 August 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2696
Details
Abstract
We investigate the factors driving current account and monetary policy developments in the euro area. We estimate an open-economy structural vector autoregression (VAR) model with zero and sign restrictions derived from a multi-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to identify relevant shocks and analyse their impact on the current account and interest rate. Examining the VAR impulse responses for Germany, Italy and Spain we find that investment shocks and preference shocks drive the current account and interest rates in the opposite directions. By contrast, external demand shocks and productivity shocks cause both the current account balance and interest rate to move in the same direction. We also provide evidence for spillovers to the euro area from US preference shocks and US interest rate policy shocks.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
4 August 2022
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 300
Details
Abstract
As the operator of a systemically important payment system (SIPS), the Eurosystem has the responsibility of regularly assessing the resilience of the Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross Settlement Express Transfer System (TARGET2) to various types of risks, as set out in the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructures (PFMIs) drawn up by the Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (CPMI) and International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO). To identify, measure, monitor and mitigate these risks over time, the TARGET2 operator has developed specific approaches that include both qualitative and quantitative elements.
JEL Code
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
C10 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→General
C63 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Computational Techniques, Simulation Modeling
4 August 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN
4 August 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 5, 2022
Details
Abstract
In the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, war-related disruptions and sanctions led to a sharp decline in trade flows with Russia. This box takes stock of recent and high frequency trade data to track flows of energy and agri-food commodities. It finds that Russia’s oil exports recovered from the post-invasion lows as some diversion of flows from sanctioning countries to Asia took place, whereas pipeline gas and agri-food commodity exports have significantly declined. The box provides an empirical assessment of the effects of the first round of sanctions in March 2022, which are estimated to have reduced Russian imports by about 15%.
JEL Code
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F40 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→General
B40 : History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches→Economic Methodology→General
3 August 2022
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 299
Details
Abstract
If the responses of wages – both private and public – and of pensions to an increase in inflation lead to second-round effects, this can make an inflationary shock more persistent, especially in the presence of automatic wage and pension indexation. This occasional paper presents an overview of the indexation schemes and other mechanisms for setting public wages and pensions across the euro area countries. It concludes that price indexation of public wages is relatively limited in the euro area, while public pensions are overwhelmingly automatically indexed, either fully or partially, to prices and wages.
JEL Code
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
J3 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
H55 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Social Security and Public Pensions
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation

Interest rates

Marginal lending facility 0.75 %
Main refinancing operations (fixed rate) 0.50 %
Deposit facility 0.00 %
27 July 2022 Past key ECB interest rates

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