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THE ECB BLOG
4 December 2023
Procrastination comes at a high cost
A further delay of a green transition will cause substantial economic loss. Our latest ECB Blog post presents the latest climate scenarios developed by the Network for Greening the Financial System and weighs up the economic costs of inaction.
Read the ECB Blog
CONFERENCE
1 December 2023
Europe: banking on resilience
Discussions at this year’s ECB Forum on Banking Supervision focused on banks’ resilience to new risks, modern supervision and the road ahead for bankers and policymakers. Catch up by listening to the recorded sessions.
Forum page
PODCAST
2 December 2023
Yin meets yang: resilience in gloomy times
How are financial markets reacting to higher rates, a sluggish economy and geopolitical tensions? Should we worry about property markets? Our host Stefania Secola puts these and other questions to financial stability expert John Fell on The ECB Podcast.
Listen to the ECB Podcast- 4 December 2023
- MFI INTEREST RATE STATISTICS
- 1 December 2023
- GOVERNING COUNCIL DECISIONS - OTHER DECISIONSEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 30 November 2023
- EURO AREA INSURANCE CORPORATIONS STATISTICSAnnexes
- 30 November 2023
- EURO AREA INSURANCE CORPORATIONS STATISTICS
- 30 November 2023
- PRESS RELEASEEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (17) +
- 28 November 2023
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 28 November 2023
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 4 December 2023
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, à l’Académie des sciences morales et politiques, Paris
- 30 November 2023
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at 5th ECB Forum on Banking Supervision "Europe: banking on resilience" in Frankfurt, Germany
- 28 November 2023
- Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Michael Chae Seminar on Macroeconomic Policy, Harvard University
- 27 November 2023
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European ParliamentAnnexes
- 27 November 2023
- 23 November 2023
- Slides by Isabel Schnabel, Executive Board Member at the European Central Bank, for a speech at the 35th anniversary of the Porto Business School
- 29 November 2023
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Ruben Mooijman and Ariane van Caloen, on 23 November 2023
- 9 November 2023
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Albina Kenda
- 4 November 2023
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Alexis Papahelas on 30 October
- 16 October 2023
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Marcel de Boer, Marijn Jongsma and Joost van Kuppeveld on 11 October 2023
- 8 October 2023
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Marie-Pierre Gröndahl on 2 October 2023
- 4 December 2023
- Policy makers around the world need to move faster to reach net zero emissions by 2050. Latest scenarios are alarming as the foreseeable impact of climate change is worse than previously projected. This ECB Blog post discusses the risks of further delaying the green transition.Details
- JEL Code
- E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
H12 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government→Crisis Management
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 29 November 2023
- European firms need to invest in new technologies to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. This often requires them to take on debt. But what if a company is already highly leveraged? The ECB Blog looks at the relationship between firms’ indebtedness and their success in reducing emissions.Details
- JEL Code
- G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
Q56 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Environment and Development, Environment and Trade, Sustainability, Environmental Accounts and Accounting, Environmental Equity, Population Growth
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
Q01 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→General→Sustainable Development
- 24 November 2023
- Europe must push the green transition forward if it wants to remain competitive in the world. New technologies and green energy aren’t just better for the environment, they also make good economic sense. To be successful, however, the transition needs to be just and inclusive.EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +
- 23 November 2023
- With rising inflation, people need more money to buy the same amount of goods. Governments can take measures to counteract this negative effect. The ECB Blog finds that recent euro area policies to support households were successful at first – but also very costly.Details
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H31 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→Household
H53 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
- 15 November 2023
- When given the chance, what do media ask the ECB about? You might think journalists focus purely on core monetary policy topics, but the reality is more varied, and who is asking plays a role. Here is what we find, and why it matters for the central bank.Details
- JEL Code
- D83 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E59 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Other
- 4 December 2023
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 1 December 2023
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 335Details
- Abstract
- Biodiversity – the variety of life on Earth – is essential for sustaining the healthy ecosystems that our economy and banks depend on. Despite the clear benefits of a healthy natural world for people and the economy, humanity is putting immense pressure on nature and biodiversity. Economic activities that rely on healthy nature are often responsible for generating environmental pressures. It is important to assess the impact that firms and financial institutions have on nature degradation, in order to reveal their exposure to transition risk and highlight the need to move towards an economic system that values nature, rather than putting it at risk. This study analyses the contribution of euro area economic activities – and the bank loans provided to enable them – to biodiversity loss by estimating biodiversity footprints. The datasets we use account for approximately €4.3 trillion in corporate loans to around 4.2 million companies located in the euro area, issued by more than 2,500 unique consolidated euro area banks. Considering two primary drivers of biodiversity loss (land-use change and climate change), the results show that the economy has had a significant impact on biodiversity, equivalent to the loss of 582 million hectares of “pristine” natural areas worldwide. Even though the impact on biodiversity is highest in Europe, the supply chains of companies are important determinants of their indirect biodiversity footprint worldwide. Asia and Africa have the largest areas impacted by activities that take place in company supply chains. Additionally, financing of economic activities with a high global impact on nature is concentrated: the ten banks with the highest financing share are responsible for financing around 40% of the total global impact of euro area firms. [...]
- JEL Code
- C55 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Modeling with Large Data Sets?
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
Q5 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics
- 28 November 2023
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 334Details
- Abstract
- We examined the net-zero commitments made by Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs). In recent years, large banks have significantly increased their ambition and now disclose more details regarding their net-zero targets. There is also growing convergence, with the vast majority of G-SIBs now being part of net-zero alliances. Despite this progress, some practices should be further improved. We assessed climate-related risks disclosures publicly available for G-SIBs in 2022. The paper gives an overview about potentially problematic disclosure practices with regards to their net-zero commitments. It identifies and discusses a number of observations, such as the significant differences in sectoral targets used despite many banks sharing the same goal, the widespread use of caveats, the missing clarity regarding exposures to carbon-intensive sectors, the lack of clarity of “green financing” goals, and the reliance on carbon offsets by some institutions. The identified issues may impact banks’ reputation and litigation risk and risk management. The paper explains how the introduction of comparable international rules on climate disclosure and the introduction of transition plans, as envisaged and partly already in place in the European Union, could help mitigate these risks.
- JEL Code
- G2 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
Q5 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 28 November 2023
- SURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREAAnnexes
- 28 November 2023
- SAFE QUESTIONNAIRE
- 28 November 2023
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 113Details
- Abstract
- Recent advances in artificial intelligence have been met with anxiety about the future of jobs. This article examines the link between AI-enabled technologies and employment shares across 16 European countries, finding that occupations potentially more exposed to AI-enabled technologies increased their employment share during the period 2010-19. This has been particularly the case for occupations with a relatively higher proportion of younger and skilled workers.
- JEL Code
- J23 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Demand
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
- 27 November 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2879Details
- Abstract
- We study how monetary policy and risk shocks affect asset prices in the US, the euro area, and Japan, differentiating between “traditional” monetary policy and communication events, each decomposed into “pure” and information shocks. Communication shocks from the US spill over to risk in the euro area and vice versa, but traditional US shocks show no spillover effects to risk. Both monetary policy and communication shocks spill over to stocks, with euro area information spillovers being particularly strong. US spillovers are consistent with global CAPM intuition whereas euro area spillovers are larger. Importantly, we document a strong global component of risk shocks which is not driven by monetary policy.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 27 November 2023
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS
- 27 November 2023
- LEGAL ACT
- 24 November 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2878Details
- Abstract
- We study the effect of changes in firms’ ESG ratings on the cost of debt of U.S. firms using a methodology change of an ESG rating provider. We find that loan spreads of downgraded ESG-rated firms in the secondary corporate loan market increase by about 10% compared to non-downgraded ESG-rated firms after the methodology change. The effect of ESG rating downgrades is not driven by the increase in the fundamental default risk of firms but rather by the premium charged by investors above the spread for default risk. The effect is stronger for firms that are more financially constrained, firms that are more exposed to ESG and, particularly, climate risk concerns as well as firms that are more held by climate-concerned lenders. We show that also loan spreads of private (unrated) firms in industries affected by ESG rating downgrades increase after the methodology change.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G24 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Investment Banking, Venture Capital, Brokerage, Ratings and Ratings Agencies - Network
- ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship Programme
- 22 November 2023
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2023Details
- Abstract
- Recent changes in the macroeconomic and financial landscape underscore the need to reassess how liquidity vulnerabilities have evolved for euro area open-ended bond funds. Bond funds’ HQLA levels have declined since 2019, indicating greater liquidity mismatch than prior to the pandemic. Over the same period, their redemption coverage for a severe outflow scenario has also deteriorated. In combination, this demonstrates that large-scale redemptions could lead to stress within the bond fund sector and, in turn, contribute to the procyclical sell-off of less liquid assets that could have negative repercussions for underlying markets. Results highlight the need to better align asset liquidity with fund redemption terms to address structural liquidity mismatch in open-ended funds.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 22 November 2023
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2023Details
- Abstract
- The digitalisation of financial services brings a variety of benefits but could also amplify and accelerate the materialisation of financial stability risks. While the increased popularity of retail trading via apps enables wider risk sharing across the economy, it could result in more procyclicality in financial markets. In addition, digitalisation in the form of social media allows information to spread faster but could also trigger or amplify shocks in financial markets or the banking sector especially when interacting with the increased use of online banking. Overall, the digitalisation of financial services may have broader policy-relevant implications for financial markets and banks that should be monitored.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G14 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G2 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services
G41 : Financial Economics
G53 : Financial Economics
:
- 22 November 2023
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2023Details
- Abstract
- The surge in trading volumes for short-term equity options, particularly 0 days to expiry (0DTE), poses some risks due to amplified leverage embedded in these contracts. Market participants find 0DTE options cost-efficient, providing flexibility for hedging or speculating on immediate market impacts, especially during periods of heightened economic uncertainty. However, the lower premia for shorter expiry options significantly increase effective leverage, potentially amplifying their impact on underlying markets. The dynamic hedging strategies employed by option sellers, driven by the option’s sensitivity to changes in the underlying index, could fuel intraday volatility spirals. While aggregate market impact depends on investors’ positioning and hedging activities, an imbalance in positions, especially with higher leverage in shorter-dated and out-of-the-money options, might trigger disorderly market moves.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G17 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Financial Forecasting and Simulation
:
- 22 November 2023
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This special feature builds on the concept of maturity gap as a metric of banks’ maturity mismatch to shed light on how banks’ engagement in maturity transformation differs across euro area countries and bank types. Banks can mitigate the interest rate risk stemming from their maturity mismatch by using derivatives for hedging purposes. Euro area banks increased their positions in interest rate derivatives over the last two years in anticipation of the start of monetary policy normalisation. Significant institutions rely more than cooperative and savings banks on interest rate derivatives and have a more diversified positioning. A box within the special feature finds that this greater reliance on derivatives was not sufficient to compensate for the material increase in interest rate risk. The extent of banks’ maturity mismatch determines the sensitivity of their net interest income to changes in interest rates and the slope of the yield curve. This special feature provides empirical evidence that the more banks engage in maturity transformation, the more their net interest margin benefits from a steepening of the yield curve, boosting bank profits. This effect might dissipate going forward, especially for banks in countries where variable-rate lending predominates.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
- 22 November 2023
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEWAnnexes
- 22 November 2023
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW
Related- 22 November 2023
- PRESS RELEASE
- 22 November 2023
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2023Details
- Abstract
- The smooth absorption of sovereign debt issuance by the financial sector is essential for financial stability. Newly issued government debt has been absorbed smoothly so far in 2023, despite the absence of net central bank purchases. Sovereign debt absorption patterns have been in line with empirical evidence, which suggests that investors tend to increase their bond purchases when yields rise. Non-bank investors tend to absorb less issuance in times of elevated financial market uncertainty, while accounting and leverage requirements influence the absorption capacity of banks. Higher government funding needs, especially in an environment of high market volatility, can imply rising yield levels and spreads.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
- 22 November 2023
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2023Details
- Abstract
- Central banks around the world have stepped up their efforts to explore and develop their own digital currencies (known as CBDCs), an electronic equivalent to cash. In the euro area, the introduction of a CBDC (“digital euro”) could offer several financial stability benefits by providing an alternative to new forms of private digital money and spurring innovation. At the same time, a CBDC, if not properly designed, could prompt financial stability risks and affect the structure and scale of bank intermediation. In the absence of effective safeguards, such as caps on individual holdings, the materialisation of high deposit outflows could heighten liquidity risk for significant institutions. However, the envisaged design of a digital euro would address such financial stability concerns by applying adequate caps on individual holdings.
- JEL Code
- E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 22 November 2023
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 21 November 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2877Details
- Abstract
- We measure the heterogeneous welfare effects of the recent inflation surge across households in the Euro Area. A simple framework illustrating the numerous channels of the transmission mechanism of surprise inflation to household welfare guides our empirical exercise. By combining micro data and aggregate time series, we conclude that: (i) country-level average welfare costs –expressed as a share of 2021–22 income– were larger than a typical recession, and heterogeneous, e.g., 3% in France and 8% in Italy; (ii) this inflation episode resembles an age-dependent tax, with the elderly losing up to 20%, and roughly half of the 25–44 year-old winning; (iii) losses were quite uniform across consumption quantiles because rigid rents served as a hedge for the poor; (iv) nominal net positions are the key driver of heterogeneity across-households; (v) the rise in energy prices generated vast variation in individual-level inflation rates, but unconventional fiscal policies were critical in shielding the most vulnerable households.
- JEL Code
- D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 21 November 2023
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2023Details
- Abstract
- Tighter financing conditions have reduced the affordability of and demand for real estate assets, putting downward pressure on prices. They have also increased the debt service costs faced by existing borrowers, with more-indebted borrowers in countries with widespread variable-rate lending being the most affected. Robust labour markets have thus far supported household balance sheets, thereby mitigating credit risk in banks’ relatively large residential real estate exposures. Commercial real estate firms, by contrast, have faced more severe challenges in a context of rising financing costs and declining profitability. While commercial real estate markets have comparatively low bank exposures, losses in this segment could act as an amplifying factor in the event of a wider shock.
- JEL Code
- G00 : Financial Economics→General→General
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G51 : Financial Economics
R30 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→General
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
- 20 November 2023
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2023Details
- Abstract
- Euro area bank earnings have reached multi-year highs, while bank equity valuations have not substantially exceeded pre-pandemic levels. Banks’ exposure to corporate credit risk and the perception of their stocks as value stocks have contributed to the stagnant valuations. However, valuations cannot be fully explained by fundamentals and may be due to heightened uncertainty about shareholder access to returns earned by banks. Overall, this increases the cost of lending to the real economy and makes it harder for banks to raise capital.
- JEL Code
- G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
G35 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Payout Policy
Interest rates
| Marginal lending facility | 4.75 % |
| Main refinancing operations (fixed rate) | 4.50 % |
| Deposit facility | 4.00 % |
Inflation rate
Inflation dashboardExchange rates
| USD | US dollar | 1.0868 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 159.47 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.85790 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9476 |
Financial stability
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