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Emerging from the pandemic crisis stronger

Though infection numbers in Europe remain very high, we are moving out of the emergency pandemic phase thanks to our remarkable collective response. We must now build on the foundations we have laid in the past two years and turn our achievements into lasting progress for Europe.

Speech

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Civil war declaration: On April 14th and 15th, 2012 Federal Republic of Germany "_urkenstaats"s parliament, Deutscher Bundestag, received a antifiscal written civil war declaration by Federal Republic of Germany "Rechtsstaat"s electronic resistance for human rights even though the "Widerstandsfall" according to article 20 paragraph 4 of the constitution, the "Grundgesetz", had been already declared in the years 2001-03. more

INTERVIEW 25 January 2022

Inflation expected to decline over 2022

Inflation will remain high at the start of 2022 but will fall later on, especially towards the end of the year, Chief Economist Philip R. Lane tells Verslo žinios. Our current projections foresee inflation below the 2% target in 2023 and 2024.

Interview
PUBLICATION 21 January 2022

Reforming money market funds

Money market funds play a key role in the financial system by linking the short-term funding and cash-management needs of market participants. Proposals to reform the regulation of these funds and enhance their resilience are assessed in this issue of the Macroprudential Bulletin.

Macroprudential Bulletin
EXPLAINER

What is monetary policy?

Why does monetary policy matter? Because it has a direct impact on interest rates and an indirect impact on inflation, the economy and employment.

Tell me
14 January 2022
Introductory statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the meeting of the Conference of Parliamentary Committees for Union Affairs of the Parliaments of the European Union (COSAC)
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11 January 2022
Welcome address by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at a virtual ceremony marking the change of office of the President of the Bundesbank
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8 January 2022
Remarks by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at a panel on “Climate and the Financial System” at the American Finance Association 2022 Virtual Annual Meeting
Annexes
8 January 2022
16 December 2021
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 16 December 2021
10 December 2021
Lecture by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
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25 January 2022
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Emilis Linge and Dalius Simenas
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14 January 2022
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Markus Zydra, Bastian Brinkmann and Meike Schreiber on 10 January 2022
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11 January 2022
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Isabella Bufacchi
7 January 2022
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Robert Shortt on 7 January and published on 7 January 2022
22 December 2021
Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Eric Albert on 16 December and published on 22 December
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31 December 2021
Blog post by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB
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Summary
Europe and the euro have become inseparable, President Christine Lagarde writes in The ECB Blog to mark the 20th anniversary of euro banknotes and coins. She recalls her first encounter with a euro banknote, and reflects on how far the euro has come and what lies ahead.
19 November 2021
Blog post by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
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To continue playing its role as the anchor of the monetary system, central bank money will need to respond to evolving needs, says Executive Board member Fabio Panetta. This means that we must intensify the work on central bank digital currencies.
4 November 2021
Blog post by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB
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The COP26 summit is a vital opportunity to set out a clear path towards a zero-carbon world, President Lagarde writes in a blog post. While the road ahead may seem daunting, she argues that a credible transition path will need clear signposts to break it up into more manageable stages.
14 September 2021
Blog post by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB
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While rising inflation understandably worries people, current inflation rates should be interpreted with caution, writes Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel.
31 August 2021
Contribution by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, to the International Monetary Fund’s magazine Finance and Development
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The existential threat posed by climate change implies that central banks must not stand on the sidelines in the fight against global warming, writes Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. Our ambitious climate action plan outlines how the ECB will contribute within its mandate.
26 January 2022
RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 91
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Abstract
Homeownership among younger households has been decreasing in several major advanced economies. In this analysis, I show that increases in labour income inequality and uncertainty are key drivers of this trend. Confronted with high house prices and low, risky incomes, many young households cannot or do not want to risk making such a big, illiquid investment. As a result, they accumulate less wealth.
JEL Code
D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
J31 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Wage Level and Structure, Wage Differentials
21 January 2022
MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 16
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Abstract
This article assesses proposed reforms to the European Money Market Funds (MMF) Regulation to enhance the resilience of the sector. Specifically, the article provides a rationale for requiring private debt MMFs to hold higher levels of liquid assets, of which a part should be public debt, and considers the design and calibration of such a requirement. The article also proposes that the impediments to the use of liquidity buffers should be removed and authorities should have a role in releasing these buffers. Finally, while the removal of a stable net asset value for low-volatility MMFs would reduce cliff effects, we argue that this might not be necessary if liquidity requirements for these private debt MMFs are sufficiently strengthened.
JEL Code
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
21 January 2022
MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - FOCUS
Macroprudential Bulletin Issue 16, 2021
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Abstract
This impact assessment shows that a mandatory public debt holding would reduce the liquidity risk of private debt money market funds by increasing their shock absorption capacity and diversifying their asset liquidity profile. This would enable these funds to better mitigate the externalities associated with large-scale redemptions. The analysis also considers possible costs related to the funding of non-financial corporations and the attractiveness of MMFs as well as possible feasibility issues in terms of the supply of public debt.
JEL Code
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
17 January 2022
OTHER PUBLICATION
17 January 2022
SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS
13 January 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN
13 January 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021
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Abstract
This box discusses the fiscal policy recommendations addressed to the euro area countries against the background of the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis.
JEL Code
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
13 January 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box describes the ECB’s liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations during the fifth and sixth maintenance periods of 2021 from 28 July 2021 to 2 November 2021.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
13 January 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021
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Abstract
This box presents a model-based approach for distinguishing between two unobserved components embedded in market-based measures of inflation compensation, namely inflation expectations and inflation risk premia. The approach relies on econometric models used to analyse the term structure of inflation-linked swap rates. Estimates indicate that the rise in inflation compensation observed since mid-2020 is attributable more to inflation risk premia than to inflation expectations. This suggests that the rise is mainly related to a shift in the inflation risks priced in, from lower than expected to higher than expected.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
13 January 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021
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Abstract
This box explores new indicators of the financing conditions faced by euro area companies, based on firm-level survey data. Drawing on the rich dataset provided by the survey on the access to finance of enterprises (SAFE), three synthetic indicators summarise how firms have perceived their financing conditions in the euro area since 2009. Overall, the indicators suggest there have been several important phases in firms’ perceptions of financing conditions, which relate closely to ECB monetary policy measures. The empirical analysis shows that, after the onset of the pandemic, firms’ perceptions of financing conditions played an increasingly important role in explaining their expectations of the future availability of bank loans.
JEL Code
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
H32 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→Firm
13 January 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021
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Abstract
During the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, supply and demand imbalances have put a strain on global production networks. We develop a two-step vector autoregression (VAR) procedure to gauge the impact of supply chain shocks on activity, trade and prices. In the first step, we use a sign restricted structural VAR with PMI output and PMI delivery times to recover the supply chain shock, which is our proxy for measuring episodes of supply chain strains. In the second step, we plug such shocks as exogenous variables into a companion VAR with endogenous real and nominal variables. Counterfactual scenarios are constructed to assess the effects of the supply bottlenecks, which are having a negative impact on real variables and pushing up prices. A medium-term assessment of the supply chain strains is also provided.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
F40 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→General
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
13 January 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021
Details
Abstract
Understanding the expectations of households, firms and financial markets regarding monetary policy and macroeconomic developments is important for the conduct of monetary policy. Surveys can play an important role in understanding expectations. The ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) brings together information on financial sector expectations of monetary policy and macroeconomic developments in one coherently structured and regularly updated survey. The objective of the SMA is to “gather regular, comprehensive, structured and systematic information on market participants’ expectations”. The ECB launched the SMA as a pilot project in April 2019 and, after concluding the pilot phase, has published aggregate results since June 2021. This article looks at the structure of the survey and the rationale behind it and explains what role it plays in understanding changes in market participants’ expectations of euro area monetary policy and the macroeconomy.
JEL Code
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
12 January 2022
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 289
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Abstract
Global value chains (GVCs) have shaped the dynamics of globalisation in recent years. This paper reviews key concepts and tools to measure countries’ involvement in GVCs, explores recent trends and investigates the underlying drivers of GVC participation empirically. The analysis in the paper finds that in the last decade, GVCs have undergone an important transformation, with participation falling on the back of rising trade costs and the trade integration of some large emerging market economies slowing, while the role of recent technological developments remains unclear. In addition, supply chains appear to have become increasingly regional over time. The paper also offers an insight into the role of production chain linkages in the transmission of recent global shocks across countries, uncovering important amplification effects on trade and activity. Finally, it discusses future prospects for GVCs and global trade, including in the light of developments associated with the coronavirus pandemic.
JEL Code
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F23 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Multinational Firms, International Business
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
12 January 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box reviews how the ECB’s communication on the economic outlook has evolved over time and how it compares with that of two other major central banks. Standard metrics reveal that over time the communication on the economic outlook has gradually become clearer, making monetary policy more transparent and effective. The ECB’s communication differs from that of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve Board, reflecting the differences in their monetary policy strategies. The ECB uses the term “money” more often, while the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve Board communicate the terms “unemployment” and “slack” more frequently. Textual analysis underscores the importance of narratives in communicating quantitative economic forecasts. To build informative narratives, the ECB relies on a wide range of economic models, tools and surveys.
JEL Code
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
12 January 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021
Details
Abstract
How central banks communicate matters. Communication has become a key instrument to make policy more effective and improve central banks’ transparency and accountability, ultimately helping to build trust among the wider public whom they serve. As part of its recent strategy review, the ECB analysed how its communication, in particular with the wider public, can be improved. This article further complements the findings of the strategy review. The article aims to provide a better understanding of the ECB’s audiences among the wider public, what matters to them, and what happens between the sending and the receiving end of ECB communication. The findings point to possible avenues to make the ECB’s monetary policy communication more effective.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
11 January 2022
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2636
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Abstract
Does the level of deposits matter for bank fragility and efficiency? In a banking model with endogenous bank runs and a consumption-saving decision, we show that the level of deposits has opposite effects on bank fragility depending on the nature of bank runs. In an economy with panic-driven runs, higher deposits make banks less fragile, while the opposite is true when runs are only driven by fundamentals. The effect of deposits is not internalized by depositors. A saving externality arises, leading to excessive fragility and insufficient liquidity provision. The economy features under-saving when runs are panic driven, and over-saving when fundamental driven.
JEL Code
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
11 January 2022
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 288
Details
Abstract
A key element of the European reform agenda is to simplify the EU fiscal governance framework by moving towards a single debt anchor and a single operational indicator as the basis for formulating fiscal targets and assessing compliance. This paper puts forward an in-depth analysis of two alternative fiscal performance indicators currently used in the EU fiscal framework: the change in the structural balance and the expenditure benchmark. Comparing these two indicators allows us to identify options for the design of a fiscal performance measure – such as assumptions on cyclical adjustment and the inclusion of fiscal variables – and assess their policy impact. Our paper finds that the expenditure benchmark used in the EU fiscal governance framework has advantages over the change in the structural balance. However, it still has scope for improvement. The paper also shows that taking account of interest payments in the expenditure benchmark would make fiscal policy more supportive of the monetary policy stance.
JEL Code
C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E65 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
F54 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→Colonialism, Imperialism, Postcolonialism
F47 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
11 January 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021
Details
Abstract
This box reviews the key factors that have been causing global supply chain disruptions and assesses their impact on euro area industrial production. After the exceptionally swift and strong rebound in global demand since the second half of 2020, supply has been increasingly unable to meet demand, with repercussions on euro area manufacturing production. Moreover, disruptions associated with container shipping, shortages of raw materials and semiconductors, as well as selective lockdown measures in key Asian countries, have also adversely affected the normal functioning of global supply chains. These disruptions are estimated to have reduced the level of euro area industrial production by 2.6% cumulatively between October 2020 and September 2021. Since this equates to around 20% of total value added, these estimates suggest that euro area GDP would have been around 0.5% higher in 2021 had it not been for the supply bottlenecks. This estimate can be considered a lower bound, as supply bottlenecks continued to affect production in the last quarter of 2021, as well as having an impact on construction and business services.
JEL Code
C30 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F60 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→General
10 January 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2021
Details
Abstract
Post-pandemic labour market developments in the United States and United Kingdom show that imbalances between labour demand and labour supply are causing a high and unusual tightness in the labour market for such an early stage in a recovery. This could translate into broad-based wage pressures, in turn posing a risk to inflation. Such pressures are becoming increasingly visible in the United States, but are less marked in the United Kingdom.
JEL Code
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
29 December 2021
OTHER PUBLICATION

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