Digital euro
The Eurosystem is preparing for the potential issuance of a digital euro to complement physical cash.
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Civil war declaration: On April 14th and 15th, 2012 Federal Republic of Germany "_urkenstaats"s parliament, Deutscher Bundestag, received a antifiscal written civil war declaration by Federal Republic of Germany "Rechtsstaat"s electronic resistance for human rights even though the "Widerstandsfall" according to article 20 paragraph 4 of the constitution, the "Grundgesetz", had been already declared in the years 2001-03. more
EVENT
31 December 2025
Illumination of main building
To celebrate Bulgaria’s accession to the euro area, the ECB’s main building is being illuminated every night from 17:30 CET until 11 January. Join us as we mark this important milestone.
PODCAST
22 December 2025
Love at second sight?
The euro family is growing. Bulgaria is gearing up to adopt the euro. What hopes and fears come with the transition? Were there similar feelings in other countries before adopting the euro?
Our host Stefania Secola speaks with ECB researcher Ferdinand Dreher to find out.
Listen to the latest episode of The ECB Podcast
FRAUD
Beware of fraud
We are aware of fake websites soliciting people to invest with the ECB. This is a scam. We never ask people for investments, money or personal information. If you think you have fallen victim to fraud, contact your local police.
More information- 8 January 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 7 January 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 7 January 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 7 January 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 7 January 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 7 January 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 7 January 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 6 January 2026
- MFI INTEREST RATE STATISTICS
- 9 January 2026
- Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Danish Economic Society Conference
- 19 December 2025
- Lecture by Mr Lane at Economics Winter Workshop organised by the Central Bank of Ireland in Dublin, Ireland
- 19 December 2025
- Contribution by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, to a roundtable at Aspen Institute Italia
- 18 December 2025
- Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 18 December 2025EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 18 December 2025
- 11 December 2025
- Presentation slides by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the ECB press briefing on the publication of the Report by the ECB High-Level Task Force on SimplificationRelated
- 11 December 2025
- 8 December 2025
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Jana Randow and Mark Schrörs on 3 December 2025
- 4 December 2025
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Takerou Minami on 26 November 2025
- 1 December 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Pablo Allendesalazar
- 11 November 2025
- Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Andrés Stumpf on 4 November 2025
- 10 November 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Luís Reis Ribeiro
- 6 January 2026
- Central banks often struggle to make themselves understood to the wider public. Visuals can help to change this. The ECB Blog travels across the globe to showcase the creative ways in which central banks communicate monetary policy.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 23 December 2025
- Are independent central banks better at ensuring price stability? A study of 155 central banks over 50 years shows why independence makes a difference. Central banks that are shielded from government control are able to pursue more credible monetary policies and are therefore better at keeping inflation at target.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 9 December 2025
- The ECB plans to prepare for the potential issuance of the digital euro by 2029, assuming the European co-legislators adopt the necessary regulation by 2026. Preparatory steps, including pilot exercises and initial transactions, could begin as early as mid-2027.EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +Details
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
- 28 November 2025
- Geopolitical tensions such as the war in Ukraine have shaken Europe’s economies. Understanding the economic impact of such shocks is crucial for monetary policy. This ECB Blog post presents a news-based indicator that tracks country-level geopolitical risk.Details
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
- 20 November 2025
- To bridge Europe’s investment gap, we need both public and private funding. Well-designed EU investment programmes can act as a major catalyst for private capital. As this blog post shows, every euro invested by the EU is matched by private finance, thereby doubling its impact.Details
- JEL Code
- E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
- 7 January 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3168Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines the relevance of banks’ exposure to climate transition risk in the interbank lending market. Using transaction-level data on repo agreements, we first establish that banks with higher exposure to transition risk face significantly higher borrowing costs. This premium is a combination of a risk premium, compensating lenders for increased credit risk, and an inconvenience premium, reflecting the sustainability preferences of key dealer banks. We also find that the transition risk premium intensifies during periods of financial stress, indicating that climate-induced risks amplify existing vulnerabilities in financial markets. Furthermore, the rate segmentation caused by transition risk premium has implications for the transmission of monetary policy. Transition risk is an important factor in financial stability and policy design.
- JEL Code
- Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
- 7 January 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3167Details
- Abstract
- We use a novel data set containing all corporate loans throughout the Eurozone to document a series of novel stylized facts on the relationship between collateral and the probability of default. First, we show that the pervasive empirical finding that riskier borrowers pledge collateral is driven by economists’ informational disadvantage relative to banks. Accounting for time-varying bank- and firm-specific risk factors produces negative correlations consistent with theory. Second, the relationship between pledging collateral and the probability of default is non-linear. Increasing the ex-ante collateral-to-loan ratio initially lowers the default likelihood but increases it as loans become overcollateralized. Third, this is driven by the riskiness of collateral. We estimate that an increase in the ex-ante collateral-to-loan ratio correlates with greater variance in the underlying collateral’s market value after loan origination. We develop a model featuring risk-neutral agents and risky collateral that provides intuition for these empirical patterns. Pledging risky collateral lowers lenders’ expected returns in case of default, leading them to demand more collateral to originate a loan but this diminishes a borrower’s return when a project is successful leading to less effort and a higher probability of default.
- JEL Code
- D82 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Asymmetric and Private Information, Mechanism Design
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 6 January 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3166Details
- Abstract
- We propose a robust semi-parametric framework for persistent time-varying extreme tail behavior, including extreme Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). The framework builds on Extreme Value Theory and uses a conditional version of the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) for peaks-over-threshold (POT) dynamics. Unlike earlier approaches, our model (i) has unit root-like, i.e., integrated autoregressive dynamics for the GPD tail shape, and (ii) re-scales POTs by their thresholds to obtain a more parsimonious model with only one time-varying parameter to describe the entire tail. We establish parameter regions for stationarity, ergodicity, and invertibility for the integrated time-varying parameter model and its filter, and formulate conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator. Using two cryptocurrency exchange rates, we illustrate how the simple single-parameter model is competitive in capturing the dynamics of VaR and ES, particularly in the extreme tail.
- JEL Code
- C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
- 1 January 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 22 December 2025
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
- 22 December 2025
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 138Details
- Abstract
- Based on a series of novel experiments fielded within the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey, we provide evidence on the attitudes of euro area consumers towards a possible central bank digital currency (CBDC). We document substantial socio‑demographic heterogeneity in consumers’ awareness and willingness to adopt a CBDC. According to survey responses, a sizeable share of around 45% of households would be interested in potentially adopting this new asset. In a scenario where a CBDC is introduced in the euro area, consumers would allocate on average a moderate fraction of a positive wealth shock to such a new asset. Holding limits in the range of €3,000 to €10,000 would in normal times not result in significant disintermediation in the banking system. According to the survey responses, effective communication of the CBDC’s key features could increase the propensity of its adoption by consumers, but this would tend to be short-lived.
- JEL Code
- E41 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
G51 : Financial Economics
- 19 December 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 19 December 2025
- AMI-SECO REPORT
- 19 December 2025
- AMI-SECO REPORT
- 19 December 2025
- AMI-SECO REPORT
- 19 December 2025
- AMI-SECO REPORT
- 19 December 2025
- DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES - No. 29Details
- Abstract
- We develop a framework underscoring the importance of incorporating natural capital into growth models and policy discussions, recognizing its role as a productive input and as a sourceof enjoyment. Both firms and the government face the trade-off between exploitation and conservation and can (but do not have to) engage in costly conservation. Firms optimally conserve natural capital to support future production but underinvest compared to the social optimum. Public conservation complements private action, shifting focus from current consumption to future growth. Unique region-level data on the biodiversity of the forest in 582 regions across 44 countries confirm the main empirical predictions of the model.
- JEL Code
- N5 : Economic History→Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment, and Extractive Industries
O4 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
Q5 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics
- 18 December 2025
- MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREAEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +Annexes
- 18 December 2025
- MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
- 2 January 2026
- MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
- 15 December 2025
- EBA/ECB REPORT
- 12 December 2025
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 11 December 2025
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 10 December 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3165Details
- Abstract
- We study how financial integration shapes the transmission of monetary policy to consumer prices and output in the euro area. Using local projections, we document that the effect of financial integration is continuous: greater integration systematically strengthens the pass-through of monetary policy. When integration falls to low levels—around the first quartile of its historical distribution— transmission to both prices and output becomes statistically and economically insignificant. The amplification pattern is pervasive across member states and more pronounced in peripheral economies. These results show that financial integration is a key determinant of monetary policy effectiveness within the euro area.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - Network
- ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship Programme
- 9 December 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3164Details
- Abstract
- This study examines how euro area banks factor pollution-induced biodiversity risks into lending decisions, using data from 832 banks and 5,000 major polluters. Our results show that banks are increasingly pricing these risks by adjusting loan-to-value ratios and interest rates. Banks adjust lending conditions in line with EU pollution and biodiversity protection legislation, particularly for companies with large pollution footprints near biodiversity-protected areas or those contributing to Environmental Quality Standards failures of downstream surface waters. The former is driven primarily by banks’ adoption of biodiversity policies and public commitments to the Equator Principles, while the latter is a result of regulatory risks. Our findings inform financial supervisors on how banks manage risks associated with the EU’s zero pollution ambition, shed light on the interplay between biodiversity protection legislation and banks’ lending decisions, and offer actionable guidance on leveraging existing regulatory frameworks to address the climate-biodiversity-pollution nexus.
- JEL Code
- G1 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
Q53 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Air Pollution, Water Pollution, Noise, Hazardous Waste, Solid Waste, Recycling
Q57 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Ecological Economics: Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity Conservation, Bioeconomics, Industrial Ecology
- 9 December 2025
- EURO AREA QUARTERLY FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS - QUALITY REPORT
- 8 December 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3163Details
- Abstract
- This study examines the effect of systematic household misestimation of home prices on financial decisions, including stockholdings, consumption, and asset allocation. Using exogenous variation in house values, mortgage debt, and homeowner misestimation identified through differences in local housing market characteristics, we find that a $60,000 increase in house overvaluation (approximately one standard deviation) results in a 1.1 to 1.9 percent decrease in risky stockholdings, a 1.5 to 4.3 percent increase in consumption, and a 1.3 to 2.5 percent increase in the share of risk-free assets over liquid wealth. The results highlight the need to better understand how housing wealth and beliefs about house values affect portfolio choice, spending, and overall household finance.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
D11 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Theory
D91 : Microeconomics→Intertemporal Choice→Intertemporal Household Choice, Life Cycle Models and Saving
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
C61 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Optimization Techniques, Programming Models, Dynamic Analysis
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| Marginal lending facility | 2,40 % |
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