2022 Q2
HICP Inflation forecasts
Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Mar. 2023 | Mar. 2024 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean point estimate | 6.0 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| Standard deviation | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Number of replies | 57 | 56 | 45 | 41 | 33 | 45 |
| Probability distributions | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Mar. 2023 | Mar. 2024 | 2026 |
| <-1.0% | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| -1.0 to -0.6% | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| -0.5 to -0.1% | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 0.0 to 0.4% | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 2.0 |
| 0.5 to 0.9% | 0.0 | 3.3 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 7.6 | 6.0 |
| 1.0 to 1.4% | 0.0 | 7.6 | 14.1 | 6.6 | 14.0 | 13.2 |
| 1.5 to 1.9% | 0.3 | 14.6 | 25.3 | 11.4 | 21.2 | 24.9 |
| 2.0 to 2.4% | 1.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 15.1 | 24.1 | 24.3 |
| 2.5 to 2.9% | 1.7 | 19.8 | 15.3 | 18.0 | 17.1 | 16.0 |
| 3.0 to 3.4% | 4.2 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 15.7 | 7.7 | 7.6 |
| 3.5 to 3.9% | 7.6 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 11.1 | 2.8 | 3.2 |
| >4.0% | 85.2 | 6.6 | 1.3 | 16.9 | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Core HICP inflation forecasts
Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Mar. 2023 | Mar. 2024 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean point estimate | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Standard deviation | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Number of replies | 41 | 41 | 33 | 36 | 28 | 34 |
| Probability distributions | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Mar. 2023 | Mar. 2024 | 2026 |
| <-1.0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| -1.0 to -0.6% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| -0.5 to -0.1% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| 0.0 to 0.4% | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| 0.5 to 0.9% | 0.0 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 5.9 |
| 1.0 to 1.4% | 0.9 | 8.4 | 14.6 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 15.1 |
| 1.5 to 1.9% | 3.2 | 23.4 | 30.2 | 17.3 | 25.3 | 29.9 |
| 2.0 to 2.4% | 15.2 | 27.6 | 24.8 | 25.2 | 27.0 | 25.8 |
| 2.5 to 2.9% | 27.6 | 18.7 | 14.7 | 20.6 | 16.6 | 13.7 |
| 3.0 to 3.4% | 29.5 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 13.2 | 9.5 | 4.9 |
| 3.5 to 3.9% | 17.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 |
| >4.0% | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Real GDP growth forecasts
Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as
2022
2023
2024
2022 Q4
2023 Q4
2026
Mean point estimate
2.9
2.3
1.8
1.8
2.1
1.4
Standard deviation
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.8
0.5
0.3
Number of replies
57
56
48
43
41
44
Probability distributions
2022
2023
2024
2022 Q4
2023 Q4
2026
<-1.0%
0.3
0.3
0.2
1.6
0.9 0.7 -1.0 to -0.6%
0.3
0.8
1.1
2.0
0.7 1.1 -0.5 to -0.1%
0.8
1.4
1.5
3.9
1.6 2.3 0.0 to 0.4%
1.1
3.1
4.0
7.1
3.4 5.5 0.5 to 0.9%
1.9
5.6
8.3
10.2
6.8 12.7 1.0 to 1.4%
3.7
9.4
16.6
14.3
12.8 25.1 1.5 to 1.9%
9.1
16.1
29.1
18.5
18.2 27.4 2.0 to 2.4%
19.2
22.8
22.2
17.6
21.0 13.5 2.5 to 2.9%
29.1
21.7
10.1
13.8
18.2 6.2 3.0 to 3.4%
19.5
11.4
3.9
6.0
9.6 3.1 3.5 to 3.9%
10.3
4.0
2.1
2.9
3.8 1.1 4.0 to 5.9%
3.9
2.7
0.9
1.4
2.2 0.8 6.0 to 7.9%
0.7
0.5
0.1
0.5
0.6 0.2 8.0 to 9.9%
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.2 0.0 >10.0%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0 0.0
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Unemployment rate forecasts
The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Feb. 2023 | Feb. 2024 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean point estimate | 6.9 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.6 |
| Standard deviation | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Number of replies | 52 | 51 | 41 | 33 | 28 | 37 |
| Probability distributions | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Feb. 2023 | Feb. 2024 | 2026 |
| <5.5% | 1.0 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 6.1 |
| 5.5 to 5.9% | 2.5 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 10.8 | 12.9 |
| 6.0 to 6.4% | 11.6 | 17.8 | 21.7 | 21.4 | 24.2 | 21.9 |
| 6.5 to 6.9% | 38.8 | 34.4 | 30.8 | 32.2 | 27.5 | 27.0 |
| 7.0 to 7.4% | 27.8 | 21.5 | 19.7 | 19.6 | 15.2 | 14.4 |
| 7.5 to 7.9% | 11.9 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 7.9 |
| 8.0 to 8.4% | 3.7 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 4.5 |
| 8.5 to 8.9% | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| 9.0 to 9.4% | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 9.5 to 9.9% | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 10.0 to 10.4% | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| 10.5 to 10.9% | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| 11.0 to 11.4% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 11.5 to 11.9% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 12.0 to 12.4% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 12.5 to 12.9% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 13.0 to 13.4% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 13.5 to 13.9% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 14.0 to 14.4% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 14.5 to 14.9% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| >15.0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |