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Óscar Arce

Economics

Current Position: Director General
Fields of interest: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
Email: oscar.arce@ecb.europa.eu

Biography

Other current responsibilities: 2022-
Chairman of the Monetary Policy Committee of the ESCB
Education: 2000-2005
PhD in Economics. London School of Economics (London, UK); 1998-2002
PhD in Business Economics. Universidad de Burgos (Burgos, Spain); 1999-2000
MSc Economics, University College London (London, UK); 1991-1996
Bachelor in Economics and Business Administration, University of Valladolid (Valladolid, Spain)
Professional experience: 2022-
Director General Economics, European Central Bank; 2018-2022
Director General Economics, Statistics and Research, Banco de España; 2015-2018
Associate Director General for Economics and Research, at the DG Economics, Statistics and Research, Banco de España; 2015-2015
Director of the Monetary and Financial Studies Dpt., at the DG Economics, Statistics and Research, Banco de España; 2012-2015
Head of the Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting Division, at the Department of Economic Analysis and Forecasting, Banco de España; 2009-2012
Director of the Research and Statistics Department - Spanish Securities Market Commission - CNMV; 2008-2009
Deputy Director General, Economic Policy Department, Economic Bureau of the Spanish Prime Minister; 2004-2008
Senior Economist, Research Department, Banco de España
Awards: 2000
Banco de España Scholarship for Graduate Studies Abroad
Teaching experience: 2014-2014
Adjunct professor (part-time), University of Navarra, Master on Banking; 2011-2012
Adjunct professor (part-time), IE Business School; 2005-2007
Adjunct professor (part-time), ICADE (Madrid); 2003-2004
London School of Economics, Dpt. of Economics: Temporary lecturer (macroeconomics, graduate); 2001-2003
London School of Economics, Dpt. of Economics: class teacher (macro & micro undergraduate); 1997-1999
Lecturer, macro, micro, international economics. Dpt. of Applied Economics, University of Burgos

ECB publications

6 May 2024

THE ECB BLOG

Low for long? Reasons for the recent decline in productivity

English

JEL Code: J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
J24 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Human Capital, Skills, Occupational Choice, Labor Productivity
J22 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Time Allocation and Labor Supply
J23 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Demand

28 February 2024

OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 343

What caused the euro area post-pandemic inflation?

English

Abstract: This paper applies the semi-structural model proposed by Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) to analyse wage growth, price inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. It is part of a broader project coordinated by Bernanke and Blanchard to provide a unified framework for analysing and comparing global inflation dynamics across the major world economic areas, including US, euro area, Canada, UK, and Japan. The paper makes four main contributions. First, it estimates the model using quarterly data from the euro area covering the period from the first quarter of 1999 to the second quarter of 2023. Second, it conducts an empirical assessment of how euro area price inflation responds to various exogenous shocks. This includes evaluating how shock transmission evolved during the pandemic and comparing it with experience in the United States. Third, the model decomposes the drivers of wage growth and price inflation in the post-pandemic period. It emphasises the transmission channels and the respective roles of supply and demand forces that have contributed to the recent inflationary surge. Notably, it identifies the impact of labour market tightness, productivity, global supply chain disruptions and energy and food price shocks. Finally, the model generates conditional projections based on these exogenous shocks, enabling a more robust cross-check of inflation forecasts during times of significant global economic disturbances.
JEL Code: C5 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F4 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

7 June 2023

THE ECB BLOG

More jobs but fewer working hours

English

JEL Code: E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation

30 March 2023

THE ECB BLOG

How tit-for-tat inflation can make everyone poorer

English

JEL Code: E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation

24 February 2023

THE ECB BLOG

One year since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – the effects on euro area inflation

English

JEL Code: E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation

1 March 2023

THE ECB BLOG

Integrating Ukrainian refugees into the euro area labour market

English

25 August 2016

WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1942

Policy spillovers and synergies in a monetary union

English

Abstract: We provide a general equilibrium framework for analyzing the effects of supply and demand side policies, and the potential synergies between them, in an asymmetric monetary union that faces a liquidity trap and a slow deleveraging process in its
JEL Code: E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
D42 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing→Monopoly
Network: Task force on low inflation (LIFT)

External publications

2023

Economic Policy

Bank lending policies and monetary policy: Some lessons from the negative interest era