Zoekopties
Home Media Explainers Onderzoek & publicaties Statistieken Monetair beleid De euro Betalingsverkeer & markten Werken bij de ECB
Suggesties
Sorteren op
Niet beschikbaar in het Nederlands

Marianna Endrész

25 October 2016
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1971
Details
Abstract
In this paper we analyse the role of the international trade network for the strength of the global recession across countries. The novelty of our paper is the use of value-added trade data to capture the importance of trade network structure. We estimate with BMA techniques how far network indicators measuring interlinkages in terms of value added trade has explanatory power both for the length and the depth of the recent crisis once we control for pre-crisis macroeconomic fundamentals. Our main findings are that the macroeconomic control variables with the strongest explanatory power for the length and the depth of the crisis are the growth rates of credit and of the real effective exchange rate in the pre-crisis period and, though to a lesser extent, GDP and inflation growth over the same period and pre-crisis foreign exchange reserves. Government debt, the GVC participation index and net foreign assets have very little explanatory power in the BMA estimations. The models
JEL Code
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
C45 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Neural Networks and Related Topics
C52 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
C67 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Input?Output Models
Network
Competitiveness Research Network

Onze website maakt gebruik van cookies

We gebruiken functionele cookies om voorkeuren van gebruikers op te slaan, analytische cookies om de werking van de website te verbeteren en cookies van derden die zijn ingesteld door in de website geïntegreerde externe diensten.

U kunt deze cookies accepteren of weigeren. Voor meer informatie of voor het herzien van uw voorkeuren over cookies en serverlogs die we gebruiken, kunt u hier terecht:

Onze privacyverklaring lezen

Nadere informatie over ons gebruik van cookies