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David Marqués-Ibáñez
Research
- Division
Financial Research
- Current Position
-
Team Lead - Economist
- Fields of interest
-
Financial Economics
- Other current responsibilities
- 2022-
Coordinator Invited Speakers Seminars
- 2022-
Coordinator ECB Summer Research Graduate Programme
- Education
- 2013-2013
Visiting Scholar, Stern School of Business, New York University
- 2013-2013
Chazen Visiting Scholar, Columbia School of Business, Columbia University
- 1998-2002
Doctorate in Economics (Ph.D.). University of Wales
- 1996-1998
Master in Banking and Finance. University of Wales, Bangor
- 1996-1997
University of Florence. Postgraduate ECTS scholarship from the European Union, Italy
- 1991-1995
Licenciado in Economics. Universidad de Granada, Granada, Spain
- Professional experience
- 2020-
Team Lead - Research Directorate, Financial Research Division, European Central Bank
- 2019-2019
Principal Economist - Research Directorate, Financial Research Division, European Central Bank
- 2017-2018
Senior Economist - Research Directorate, Financial Research Division, European Central Bank
- 2016-2016
Visiting Economist - International Monetary Fund,Research Department, Macro Finance Group, Washington, United States
- 2015-2016
Senior Economist - Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, International Finance Division, Washington, United States
- 2014-2015
Economist - Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, Economist, International Finance Division, Washington, United States
- 2014-2014
Principal Economist - Research Directorate, Financial Research Division, European Central Bank
- 2013-2013
Visiting Researcher - Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Financial Intermediation Research Function, New York, United States
- 2012-2013
Workstream coordinator - High Level Task Force for the creation of Single Supervisory Mechanism, European Central Bank
- 2019-2012
Senior Economist - Research Directorate, Financial Research Division, European Central Bank
- 2007-2007
Visiting Economist - Monetary Policy Directorate, Financial Structure Unit, Rome, Bank of Italy
- 2004-2007
Senior Economist - Monetary Policy Directorate, Capital Markets and Financial Structure Division, European Central Bank
- 2003-2005
Economist - Monetary Policy Directorate, Capital Markets and Financial Structure Division, European Central Bank
- Awards
- 2012
ECB special award for continuous outstanding performance
- 2000
ICO Spanish Minister of Finance doctoral fellowship. 1998 to 2000
- 1999
University of Wales doctoral fellowship. 1998-2000
- 1998
University of Granada research scholarship
- 1996
European Union postgraduate ECTS scholarship
- Teaching experience
- 2019-
International Finance (University of Rome III)
- 2005-2006
Empirical banking, microeconometrics
- 26 July 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2959Details
- Abstract
- In the aftermath of the European sovereign debt crisis, the question of who should bear the burden of banking crises has been a cornerstone of the new supervisory framework in Europe. We evaluate the bail-in regulation (BRRD) for bank bond holdings using a proprietary database covering holdings of all euro-denominated securities. We focus on hard-to-value bailinable bank bonds and show that banks increased their holdings of bailinable bank bonds while households and non-financial corporations reduced their holdings of bailinable bonds issued by riskier banks.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 3 April 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2923Details
- Abstract
- How a historic drop in bank deposits shapes banks’ loan supply? We exploit the effects of a large, and unexpected, increase in monetary policy rates to estimate the deposit channel of monetary policy using an extensive credit register that includes all bank-firm lending relationships in all euro area countries. We find that banks experiencing large deposit outflows reduce credit, but not the interest rate they charge, to the same borrower relative to other lenders. This credit restriction is stronger for fixed rate and longer maturity loans, but not for riskier borrowers. The effect is mostly driven by banks coming into the hiking period with a larger unhedged duration gap that renders borrowers of those banks more vulnerable to credit restrictions due to the deposit outflows as interest rates surge. We resort to the deposit beta as an instrument variable and a matched estimator that bear out the thrust of our results.
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 22 March 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2921Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies the impact of voluntary climate commitments by banks on their lending activity. We use administrative data on the universe of bank lending from 19 European countries. There is strong selection into commitments, with increased participation by the largest banks and banks with the most pre-existing exposure to high-polluting industries. Setting a commitment leads to a boost in a lender’s ESG rating. Lenders reduce credit in sectors they have targeted as high priority for decarbonization. However, climate-aligned banks do not change their lending or loan pricing differentially compared to banks without climate commitments, suggesting they are not actively divesting. We can reject that climate-aligned lenders divest from firms in targeted sectors by more than 2.6%. Firm borrowers are no more likely to set climate targets after their lender sets a climate target, which casts doubt on active engagement by lenders. These results call into question the efficacy of voluntary commitments.
- JEL Code
- Q50 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 21 March 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2920Details
- Abstract
- We examine rating behaviour after the introduction of new regulations regarding Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) in the European securitisation market. Employing a large sample of 12,469 ABS tranches issued between 1998 and 2018, we examine the information content of yield spreads of ABS at the issuance and compare the pre- and post-GFC periods. We find that the regulatory changes have been effective in tackling conflicts of interest between issuers and CRAs in securitisation. Rating catering seems to have disappeared in the post-GFC period. Yet we see limited effectiveness on rating shopping. It follows that rating over-reliance might be an issue, especially for investors of higher-quality ABS.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 7 March 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2793Details
- Abstract
- Climate change and the public policies to arrest it are and will continue reshaping the global economy. This Discussion Paper draws on economic research to identify some key medium- and long-run economic implications of these developments. It explores implications for growth, innovation, inflation, financial markets, fiscal policy, and several socio-economic outcomes. The main message that emerges is that climate change will cause income divergence across individuals, sectors, and regions, adjustment in energy markets, increased inflation variability, financial markets stress, intensified innovation, increased migration, and rising public debt. These challenges appear manageable for EU member states, especially under an early and orderly transition scenario. At the same time, the direction, scope, and speed of economic transformation is subject to large uncertainty due to two separate factors: the wide range of climate scenarios for a given trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions and the exact policy path governments choose, especially in the context of the ongoing Russian aggression in Ukraine.
- JEL Code
- D6 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
F2 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business
G2 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services
O1 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development
Q5 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics - Network
- Discussion papers
- 7 March 2023
- DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES - No. 22Details
- Abstract
- Climate change and the public policies to arrest it are and will continue reshaping the global economy. This Discussion Paper draws on economic research to identify some key medium- and long-run economic implications of these developments. It explores implications for growth, innovation, inflation, financial markets, fiscal policy, and several socio-economic outcomes. The main message that emerges is that climate change will cause income divergence across individuals, sectors, and regions, adjustment in energy markets, increased inflation variability, financial markets stress, intensified innovation, increased migration, and rising public debt. These challenges appear manageable for EU member states, especially under an early and orderly transition scenario. At the same time, the direction, scope, and speed of economic transformation is subject to large uncertainty due to two separate factors: the wide range of climate scenarios for a given trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions and the exact policy path governments choose, especially in the context of the ongoing Russian aggression in Ukraine.
- JEL Code
- D6 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
F2 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business
G2 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services
O1 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development
Q5 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics
- 20 December 2022
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2760Details
- Abstract
- When the Covid-19 crisis struck, banks using internal-rating based (IRB) models quickly recognized the increase in risk and reduced lending more than banks using a standardized approach. This effect is not driven by borrowers’ quality or by banks in countries with credit booms before the pandemic. The higher risk sensitivity of IRB models does not always result in lower credit provision when risk intensifies. Certain features of the IRB models – the use of a downturn Loss Given Default parameter –can increase banks’ resilience and preserve their intermediation capacity also during downturns. Affected borrowers were not able to fully insulate and decreased corporate investments.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 20 December 2022
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 102Details
- Abstract
- When the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic struck, it was vital for many firms to retain access to funding from banks. In order to calculate their capital requirements, banks measure borrowers’ credit risk using either “their own”, internal ratings-based (IRB) models, or a standardised approach. This analysis examines whether model-based bank regulation constrained lending during the COVID-19 crisis. Results show that banks using their own models extended less credit than banks using a standardised approach. This outcome was not dependent on borrowers’ characteristics, or the credit booms seen in some countries, but is connected to the IRB models that some banks use. Certain features of the models such as the “downturn loss-given default” parameter, which reflects how much money a bank can expect to lose when borrowers default on loans during downturns, are helpful to bolster banks’ resilience and preserve their intermediation capacity during times of economic decline.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 14 May 2021
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2550Details
- Abstract
- Do climate-oriented regulatory policies affect the flow of credit towards polluting corporations? We match loan-level data to firm-level greenhouse gas emissions to assess the impact of the Paris Agreement. We find that, following this agreement, European banks reallocated credit away from polluting firms. In the aftermath of President Trump’s 2017 announcement that the United States was withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, lending by European banks to polluting firms in the United States decreased even further in relative terms. It follows that green regulatory initiatives in banking can have a significant impact combating climate change.
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
H23 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Externalities, Redistributive Effects, Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
- 20 February 2020
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2377Details
- Abstract
- The response of major central banks to the global financial crisis has revived the debate around the interactions between monetary policy (MP) and bank stability. This technical paper sheds light, quantitatively, on the different mechanisms underlying the relationship between MP and bank stability. It does so by reviewing microeconometric studies from the academic literature as well as those conducted internally at the ECB. The paper proceeds chronologically, using the recent crisis as a touchstone. First, it provides a brief overview of the main theoretical channels linking bank stability and the transmission of MP. It then analyses the evidence from the pre-crisis period in the light of the structural trends leading up to the crisis. As the crisis erupted, unconventional monetary policy (UMP) measures were deployed, and the paper suggests that these were essential to buttress bank stability and halt a systemic crisis. At the same time, these measures involved trade-offs, and the adverse spillovers on banks’ intermediation capacity and risk-taking require close monitoring. The paper ends by offering a critical review of the methodologies employed and suggestions for the areas where analytical efforts should be focussed in the future.
- JEL Code
- E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 27 May 2019
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2287Details
- Abstract
- The architecture of supervision – how we define the allocation of supervisory powers to different policy institutions – can have implications for policy conduct and for the economic and financial environment in which these policies are implemented. Theoretically, an integrated structure for monetary policy and supervision brings important benefits arising from better information flow and policy coordination. Aggregate supervisory information may significantly improve the conduct of monetary policy and the effectiveness of the lender of last resort function. As long as the process towards an integrated structure does not shrink the set of available tools, monetary policy and supervision are no less effective in pursuing their objectives than a separated structure. Additionally, an integrated structure does not seem to be correlated with more price and/or financial instability, as suggested by analysing a large global set of countries with different supervisory set-ups. A centralised structure for supervision entails significant benefits in terms of fewer opportunities for supervisory arbitrage by banks and less informational asymmetry. A large central supervisor can take advantage of economies of scale and scope in supervision and gain a broader perspective on the stability of the entire banking sector, which should result in improved financial stability. Potential drawbacks of a centralised supervisory structure are the possible lack of specialisation relative to local supervisors and the increased distance between the supervisor and the supervised institutions. We discuss the implications of our findings in the euro area context and in relation to the design of the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM).
- JEL Code
- E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation - Network
- Discussion papers
- 27 May 2019
- DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES - No. 9Details
- Abstract
- The architecture of supervision – how we define the allocation of supervisory powers to different policy institutions – can have implications for policy conduct and for the economic and financial environment in which these policies are implemented. Theoretically, an integrated structure for monetary policy and supervision brings important benefits arising from better information flow and policy coordination. Aggregate supervisory information may significantly improve the conduct of monetary policy and the effectiveness of the lender of last resort function. As long as the process towards an integrated structure does not shrink the set of available tools, monetary policy and supervision are no less effective in pursuing their objectives than a separated structure. Additionally, an integrated structure does not seem to be correlated with more price and/or financial instability, as suggested by analysing a large global set of countries with different supervisory set-ups. A centralised structure for supervision entails significant benefits in terms of fewer opportunities for supervisory arbitrage by banks and less informational asymmetry. A large central supervisor can take advantage of economies of scale and scope in supervision and gain a broader perspective on the stability of the entire banking sector, which should result in improved financial stability. Potential drawbacks of a centralised supervisory structure are the possible lack of specialisation relative to local supervisors and the increased distance between the supervisor and the supervised institutions. We discuss the implications of our findings in the euro area context and in relation to the design of the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM).
- JEL Code
- E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
- 18 March 2019
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2249Details
- Abstract
- We assess how a major, unconventional central bank intervention, Draghi’s “whatever it takes” speech, affected lending conditions. Similar to other large interventions, it responded to adverse financial and macroeconomic developments that also influenced the supply and demand for credit. We avoid such endogeneity concerns by focusing on a third country and comparing lending conditions by euro area and other banks to the same borrower. We show that the intervention reversed prior risk-taking – in volume, price, and loan credit ratings – by subsidiaries of euro area banks relative to local and other foreign banks. Our results document a new effect of large central banks’ interventions and are robust along many dimensions.
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems - Network
- Research Task Force (RTF)
- 7 February 2019
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2236Details
- Abstract
- We examine the link between issuer reputation and mortgage-backed security (MBS) performance using a sample of 4,247 European MBS issued between 1999 and 2007. We measure performance with credit rating downgrades and delinquencies and track their changes over the long term. We find that, overall, MBS sold by reputable issuers are collateralised by higher quality asset pools which have lower delinquency rates and are less likely to be downgraded. However, as credit standards declined during the boom period of 2005-2007, asset pools securitized by reputable issuers were of worse quality compared to those securitized by less reputable issuers. Therefore, reputation as a self-disciplining mechanism failed to incentivise the production of high quality securities during the credit boom.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G24 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Investment Banking, Venture Capital, Brokerage, Ratings and Ratings Agencies
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 30 March 2017
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 32Details
- Abstract
- It is commonly argued that in the run-up to the recent financial crisis, banks selected and securitised loans of relatively lower credit quality. This article reviews new evidence from the euro-denominated corporate loan market which suggests that this presumption does not hold for this market segment in Europe. Banks that were more active in securitisation markets are also not found to offer, all else being equal, lower lending rates to borrowers. Our results complement earlier findings from the US securitisation markets.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
- 1 February 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2009Details
- Abstract
- Banks are usually better informed on the loans they originate than other financial intermediaries. As a result, securitized loans might be of lower credit quality than otherwise similar non-securitized loans. We assess the effect of securitization activity on loans
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 21 May 2014
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1678Details
- Abstract
- We find that the increased use of securitisation activity in the banking sector prior to the 2007- 2009 crisis augmented the effect of competition on realised bank risk (i.e. more intense competition and greater use of securitisation is correlated with higher levels of realised risk) during the crisis. In contrast, higher levels of capital did not buffer the impact of competition on realised risk. It follows that cooperation between supervisory and competition authorities is warranted to account for the stability implications of financial innovation and capital regulation.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
- 18 October 2012
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1484Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines the quality of credit ratings assigned to banks in Europe and the United States by the three largest rating agencies over the past two decades. We interpret credit ratings as relative assessments of creditworthiness, and define a new ordinal metric of rating error based on banks' expected default frequencies. Our results suggest that rating agencies assign more positive ratings to large banks and to those institutions more likely to provide the rating agency with additional securities rating business (as indicated by private structured credit origination activity). These competitive distortions are economically significant and contribute to perpetuate the existence of
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 15 March 2012
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1427Details
- Abstract
- We analyze whether the impact of monetary policy on bank risk depends upon bank characteristics. We relate the materialization of bank risk during the financial crisis to differences in the monetary policy stance and bank characteristics in the pre-crisis period for a large sample of listed banks operating in the European Union and the United States. We find that the insulation effect produced by capital and liquidity buffers on bank risk was lower for banks operating in countries that, prior to the crisis, experienced a particularly prolonged period of low interest rates.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages - Network
- Macroprudential Research Network
- 4 November 2011
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1394Details
- Abstract
- We exploit the 2007-2009 financial crisis to analyze how risk relates to bank business models. Institutions with higher risk exposure had less capital, larger size, greater reliance on short-term market funding, and aggressive credit growth. Business models related to significantly reduced bank risk were characterized by a strong deposit base and greater income diversification. The effect of business models is non-linear: it has a different impact on riskier banks. Finally, it is difficult to establish in real time whether greater stock market capitalization involves real value creation or the accumulation of latent risk.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill - Network
- Macroprudential Research Network
- 20 July 2011
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1362Details
- Abstract
- We investigate the effect of securitization activity on banks’ lending standards using evidence from pricing behavior on the syndicated loan market. We find that banks more active at originating asset-backed securities are also more aggressive on their loan pricing practices. This suggests that securitization activity lead to laxer credit standards. Macroeconomic factors also play a large role explaining the impact of securitization activity on bank lending standards: banks more active in the securitization markets loosened more aggressively their lending standards in the run up to the recent financial crisis but also tightened more strongly during the crisis period. As a continuum of this paper we are examining whether individual loans that are eventually securitized are priced more aggressively by using unique European data on individual loans from all major trustees.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 2 May 2011
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1335Details
- Abstract
- The 2007-2010 financial crisis highlighted the central role of financial intermediaries
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- 20 April 2011
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1329Details
- Abstract
- While the 2007-2010 financial crisis has hit a variety of countries asymmetrically, the case of Spain is particularly illustrative: this country experienced a pronounced housing bubble partly funded via spectacular developments in its securitization markets leading to looser credit standards and subsequent financial stability problems. We analyze the sequential deterioration of credit in this country considering rating changes in individual securitized deals and on balance sheet bank conditions. Using a sample of 20,286 observations on securities and rating changes from 2000Q1 to 2010Q1 we build a model in which loan growth, on balancesheet credit quality and rating changes are estimated simultaneously. Our results suggest that loan growth significantly affects on balance-sheet loan performance with a lag of at least two years. Additionally, loan performance is found to lead rating changes with a lag of four quarters. Importantly, bank characteristics (in particular, observed solvency, cash flow generation and cost efficiency) also affect ratings considerably. Additionally, these other bank characteristics seem to have a higher weight in the rating changes of securities issued by savings banks as compared to those issued by commercial banks.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
- 11 January 2011
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1287Details
- Abstract
- It has often been argued during the recent credit crisis that commercial banks’ involvement in investment banking activities might have had an impact on the intensity of their underwriting standards. We turn to evidence from the period prior to the complete revocation of the Glass-Steagall Act in the United States and analyze whether investment banks or – section 20 subsidiaries of – commercial banks underwrote riskier securities. We compare actual defaults of these deals for an extensive sample of about 4,000 corporate debt securities underwritten during the period of the de facto softening of the Act’s restrictions. Securities underwritten by commercial banks’ subsidiaries have a higher probability of default than those underwritten by investment houses. This evidence is stronger in the case of ex-ante riskier and more competitive issues, and during the first years of bank securities’ subsidiaries’ entry into the market. Based on our results, it is not possible to reject that the repeal of the Glass-Steagall led to looser credit screening by broad (universal) banking companies trying to gain market share and/or to the lower initial ability of these banks to correctly evaluate default risk.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G24 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Investment Banking, Venture Capital, Brokerage, Ratings and Ratings Agencies
N22 : Economic History→Financial Markets and Institutions→U.S., Canada: 1913?
- 10 June 2010
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1211Details
- Abstract
- We analyse the impact of efficiency on bank risk. We also consider whether bank capital has an effect on this relationship. We model the inter-temporal relationships among efficiency, capital and risk for a large sample of commercial banks operating in the European Union. We find that reductions in cost and revenue efficiencies increase banks' future risks thus supporting the bad management and efficiency version of the moral hazard hypotheses. In contrast, bank efficiency improvements contribute to shore up bank capital levels. Our findings suggest that banks lagging behind in their efficiency levels might expect higher risk and subdued capital positions in the near future.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
D24 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Production, Cost, Capital, Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity, Capacity
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy - Network
- Macroprudential Research Network
- 31 March 2010
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1166Details
- Abstract
- This paper investigates the relationship between short-term interest rates and bank risk. Using a unique database that includes quarterly balance sheet information for listed banks operating in the European Union and the United States in the last decade, we find evidence that unusually low interest rates over an extended period of time contributed to an increase in banks' risk. This result holds for a wide range of measures of risk, as well as macroeconomic and institutional controls.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 31 July 2009
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1075Details
- Abstract
- We find evidence of a bank lending channel for the euro area operating via bank risk. Financial innovation and the new ways to transfer credit risk have tended to diminish the informational content of standard bank balance-sheet indicators. We show that bank risk conditions, as perceived by financial market investors, need to be considered, together with the other indicators (i.e. size, liquidity and capitalization), traditionally used in the bank lending channel literature to assess a bank
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
- 10 March 2009
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1028Details
- Abstract
- Following the introduction of the euro, the markets for large debt financing experienced a historical expansion. We investigate the financial factors behind the issuance of syndicated loans for an extensive sample of euro area non-financial corporations. For the first time we compare these factors to those of its major competitor: the corporate bond market. We find that large firms, with greater financial leverage, more (verifiable) profits and higher liquidation values tend to prefer syndicated loans. In contrast, firms with larger levels of short-term debt and those perceived by markets as having more growth opportunities favour financing through corporate bonds.
- JEL Code
- D40 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing→General
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 7 January 2009
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 989Details
- Abstract
- We model the determinants of loans to non-financial corporations in the euro area. Using the Johansen (1992) methodology, we identify three cointegrating relationships. These relationships are interpreted as the long-run loan demand, investment and loan supply equations. The short-run dynamics of loan demand for the euro area are subsequently modelled by means of a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). We perform a number of specification tests, which suggest that developments in loans to non-financial corporations in the euro area can be reasonably explained by the model. We then use the estimated model to analyse the impact of permanent and temporary shocks to the policy rate on bank lending to nonfinancial corporations.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
C51 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Construction and Estimation
- 17 December 2007
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 838Details
- Abstract
- The dramatic increase in securitisation activity has odified the functioning of credit markets by reducing the fundamental role of liquidity transformation performed by financial intermediaries. We claim that the changing role of banks from
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
- 28 June 2007
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 63Details
- Abstract
- This report analyses the financial position of non-financial enterprises in the euro area, in particular the amount of external financing, the choice between debt and equity and the composition and maturity structure of debt. It aims at identifying the main features of the euro area, as well as the peculiarities that depend on the country of origin and the sector of activity. Attention is also devoted to assessing whether a country's institutional features are correlated with different financial structures by firms. In light of the particular interest in the access of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to financing, the report also analyses how financing patterns differ across large, medium-sized and small enterprises. Finally, the report discusses the recent trends observed in the corporate finance landscape of the euro area over the past few years. Although it is still too early to pass final judgement, vast structural changes are underway that could have already influenced in a positive way in the availability of external funds for firms. All in all, a comprehensive understanding of corporate finance in the euro area is important from a monetary policy perspective, given its impact on the transmission mechanism and for productivity and economic growth. Moreover, such an understanding is also relevant from a financial stability perspective. A first assessment is now possible eight years into the third stage of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), given that sufficient data have been accumulated during this period. This assessment is particularly important as the introduction of the single currency has had significant structural effects on the working of financial markets, increasing their size and liquidity, and fostering cross-border competition. The data available for this report generally cover the period 1995-2005, and the cut-off date for the statistics included is 10 March 2007.
- JEL Code
- D92 : Microeconomics→Intertemporal Choice→Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
G30 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→General
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
O16 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Financial Markets, Saving and Capital Investment, Corporate Finance and Governance
K40 : Law and Economics→Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior→General
- 4 October 2005
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 37Details
- Abstract
- For central banks, the monitoring of financing conditions plays a pivotal role in assessing the actual transmission of monetary policy impulses to borrowers. This paper presents in detail some of the indicators and data used by the ECB to assess financing conditions in the euro area. It also shows how these indicators have been used to provide a broad assessment of developments in financing conditions in the euro area in recent years. The ECB's analysis of financing conditions is dynamic and seeks to reflect underlying changes in the euro area's financial structure.
- JEL Code
- G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G30 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→General
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
- 29 October 2004
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 398Details
- Abstract
- An unprecedented process of financial consolidation has taken place in the European Union over the past decade. Building on earlier US evidence, we examine the impact of strategic similarities between bidders and targets on post-merger financial performance. We find that, on average, bank mergers in the European Union resulted in improved return on capital. By making the assumption that balance-sheet resource allocation is indicative of the strategic focus of banks, we also find significantly different results for domestic and cross-border mergers. For domestic deals, it could be quite costly to integrate dissimilar institutions in terms of their loan, earnings, cost, deposits and size strategies. For cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As), differences of merging partners in their loan and credit risk strategies are conducive to a higher performance whereas diversity in their capital, cost structure as well as technology and innovation investments strategies are counterproductive from a performance standpoint.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G34 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Mergers, Acquisitions, Restructuring, Corporate Governance
- 27 February 2004
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 313Details
- Abstract
- This study empirically examines the development of the high-yield segment of the corporate bond market in the United States, as a pioneer country, and the United Kingdom and the euro area, as later adopting countries. Estimated diffusion models show for the United States a significant pioneer influence factor and autonomous speed of diffusion. The latter is found to be higher in Europe than in the United States as also macroeconomic factors are considered. The high-yield bond diffusion pattern is significantly affected by financing need variables, e.g. leverage buy-outs, mergers and acquisitions, and industrial production growth, and return or financing cost variables, e.g. stock market return and the spread between the yield on speculative-grade and BBB-rated investment-grade bonds. These findings suggest that the diffusion of new financial products depends on the macroeconomic environment and can be quickly in case of the diffusion from a pioneer country to later adopting countries.
- JEL Code
- G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- 2024
- Economics LettersBail-in in action
- 2022
- Finance Research LettersBank reputation and securitization quality: European evidence
- 2022
- Research Bulletin, European Central BankModel-based regulation: lending in times of Covid
- 2022
- Journal of Financial Stability
- 2022
- Journal of Banking and Finance
- 2019
- European Financial Management
- 2017
- European Central Bank, Research BulletinSecuritisation, credit risk and lending standards revisited
- 2017
- Journal of Financial Intermediation
- 2016
- Journal of Finance 71(5), 1933-1974
- 2016
- Journal of Financial Stability 26, 107-127
- 2014
- Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 46, 327-331Comment on “Foreign banks: Trends and impact” by Claessens, S. and N. van Horen
- 2014
- International Journal of Central Banking 10, 95-136Does monetary policy affect bank risk-taking?
- 2014
- Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 32, 473-490Determinants of syndicated lending in European banks and the impact of the financial crisis
- 2013
- Economic Policy 28 (74), 289-333Bank ratings: What determines their quality?
- 2013
- Journal of Banking and Finance 37(6), 2000-2010Is bank default risk systematic?
- 2012
- Economic Letters 117, 220-222.Do bank characteristics influence the effect of monetary policy on bank risk?
- 2012
- Journal of International Money and Finance 31, 80-101Securitization, credit growth and financial instability: the case of Spain
- 2011
- Economic Policy 26(66),137-182The new bank lending channel: Evidence from the crisis
- 2011
- Journal of Banking and Finance 35(5),1315-1326Efficiency and risk in European banking
- 2010
- Journal of Financial Stability 6, 121–129Bank risk and monetary policy
- 2010
- European Journal of Finance 16 (5), 437-458Large debt financing: syndicated loans versus corporate bonds
- 2010
- Handbook of Banking, Oxford University PressSecuritisation: Causes and consequences
- 2009
- European Economic Review 53, 8, 996-1009Securitisation and the bank lending channel
- 2008
- Journal of Business and Economics 60, 3, 179-290Mergers and acquisitions and bank performance in Europe: the role of strategic similarities
- 2008
- Journal of Financial Services Research 27, 2, 163-181High-yield bond diffusion in the United States, the United Kingdom and the euro area
- 2005
- Kredit und Kapital 4Bank capital, bank lending and monetary policy in the euro area