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Andrea Fabbri
- 15 January 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This article examines the key challenges for short-term forecasting of euro area economic activity since the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the persistently elevated levels of uncertainty. It details the significant enhancements made to the short-term forecasting models of the ECB as part of a general review aimed at improving their accuracy. It also highlights exploratory work on alternative approaches using advanced machine learning methods, which offer promising avenues to address the complexities of economic forecasting in times of high uncertainty.
- JEL Code
- C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 20 June 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Euro area services inflation has been persistent owing to a combination of factors, including a delayed response of some services prices to past shocks. This, in part, reflects staggered price setting, as the price changes of a large share of the services basket take place in just one or two months of the year. This box identifies the services items with such pricing patterns and shows that the inflation rate of services items with an annual repricing pattern responded to the past inflationary shocks with some lag. This response has been protracted and at the beginning of 2025 inflation was still high for the identified items with an annual repricing pattern, especially administered items. However, the price adjustment to past shocks for these items should now be largely completed.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation