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Macroprudential policy and real estate markets: objectives, effectiveness and new challenges

Joint Central Bank of Malta and European Central Bank Research Workshop

Friday, 21 October 2022, Valletta

This workshop aims to foster and strengthen dialogue between policymakers and researchers, with a view to enhancing our collective understanding of how macroprudential policies function. The workshop will offer an opportunity to share and review empirical studies, state of the art models and methodological tools in the field of macroprudential policy analysis.

Programme

Times are Central European Time

* indicates the presenter

Friday, 21 October 2022
8:30

Registration

9:00

Opening remarks

Edward Scicluna, Governor of the Central Bank of Malta

 

Session 1: LTV, LTI or both? Bringing models to the data to understand the effects of BBM instrument choice

Chair: Evangelia Rentzou, ECB

9:10

Could Spain be less different? Evidence from the effects of macroprudential policy on the house price cycle

Adrián Carro Patiño*, Banco de España

Discussant: William Gatt Fenech, Central Bank of Malta

9:45

Borrower-Based Measures, House Prices and Household Debt

Francesco Caloia*, DNB

Discussant: Carmen Broto Pelegrín, Banco de España

10:20

Coffee break

10:35

Keynote address “A Broader View of Housing-Market Macroprudential Measures”

Professor Philip Davis, Brunel University London, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, International Monetary Fund

 

Session 2: Bigger deposit or a smaller house? Using microdata to understand the response to BBM introduction

Chair: Alan Cassar, Central Bank of Malta

11:10

The impact of a macroprudential borrower based measure on households’ leverage and housing choices

  • Daniel Abreu*, Banco de Portugal
  • Sonia Felix, Banco de Portugal
  • Victor Oliveira, Banco de Portugal
  • Fátima Silva, Banco de Portugal

Discussant: Elena Durante, Central Bank of Ireland

11:45

The effects of a macroprudential loosening: the importance of borrowers' choices

  • Elena Durante*, Central Bank of Ireland
  • Fergal McCann, Central Bank of Ireland

Discussant: Fátima Silva, Banco de Portugal

12:20

Lunch

13:20

Policy panel
Macroprudential policy: objectives, effectiveness and new challenges

Moderator: John Fell, Deputy Director General Macroprudential Policy and Financial Stability, ECB

Panelists:

  • Professor Philip Davis, Brunel University London
  • Sarah Venables, Senior Policy Adviser at Bank of England
  • Deniz Igan, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis BIS
 

Session 3: Macroprudential policy – unintended consequences

Chair: Tomas Garbaravičius, MPPG Co-Chair

14:35

Wealth inequality and the distributional effects of maximum loan-to-value ratio policy

William Gatt Fenech*, Central Bank of Malta

Discussant: Julien Idier, Banque de France

15:10

The leverage-liquidity trade-off of mortgage regulation

  • Ragnar Juelsru*, Norges Bank
  • Knut Are Aastveit, Norges Bank
  • Ella Getz Wold, Norges Bank

Discussant: Simona Malovana, CNB

15:45

Coffee break

 

Session 4: Bias and anticipation effects – what might the literature be missing?

Chair: Carsten Detken, MPPG Co-Chair

16:00

Effects of LTV announcements in EU economies

  • Dimitris Mokas*, European Banking Authority
  • Massimo Giuliodori, European Banking Authority

Discussant: Ashleigh Neill, Central Bank of Malta

16:35

Borrower based measures: How biased is the existing literature?

  • Simona Malovana*, CNB
  • Martin Hodula, CNB
  • Zuzana Gric, CNB
  • Josef Bajzíkc, CNB

Discussant: Ragnar Juelsrud, Norges Bank

17:10

Closing remarks

17:30

End of workshop

General information

Venue

Valletta

Conference language

English

Organisers

  • Carsten Detken, MPPG Co-Chair, ECB
  • Tomas Garbaravičius, MPPG Co-Chair, Lietuvos bankas
  • Alan Cassar, FSC Member, Central Bank of Malta
  • Stephen Attard, MPPG Member, Central Bank of Malta
  • Ellen Ryan, MPPG Secretary, ECB
  • Anne McTaggart, MPPG Secretariat, ECB
  • Melpomeni Rafailaki, MPPG Secretariat, ECB
  • Marco Lo Duca, Advisor, ECB

Contacts

Organising committee
WorkshopMacropru@ecb.int

ECB-MPPG Secretariat