- European Central Bank Conference
Inflation in a changing economic environment
23 and 24 September 2019
Press room, Großmarkthalle, European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main
In the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, inflation developments have once again become a subject of discussion among researchers and policymakers alike, both in the euro area and beyond. The aim of this conference is to enhance participants’ understanding of the drivers and dynamics of inflation by showcasing frontier research into the topic from academia and policy institutions.
Programme
* An asterisk indicates the author presenting the relevant paper.
- 10:00
- Registration and coffee
- 10:30
-
Welcome remarks
Luc Laeven, Director General Research, European Central Bank
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Session 1: Price setting 1
Chair and discussant: Fernando Alvarez, University of Chicago
- 10:45
-
Price synchronisation and cost pass-through in multiproduct firms: Evidence from Danish producer prices
- Luca Dedola*, European Central Bank
Presentation - Mark S. Kristoffersen, Danmarks Nationalbank
- Gabriel Zullig, Danmarks Nationalbank and University of Copenhagen
- Luca Dedola*, European Central Bank
- 11:15
-
Multiproduct pricing: Theory and evidence from large retailers in Israel
- Marco Bonomo, Insper
- Carlos Carvalho, Pontifcia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro
- Oleksiy Kryvtsov*, Bank of Canada
Presentation - Sigal Ribon, Bank of Israel
- Rodolfo Rigato, Harvard University
- 12:15
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Keynote speech
Chair: Massimo Rostagno, Director General Monetary Policy, European Central Bank
Monetary policy and the link between unemployment and inflation
Silvana Tenreyro, Bank of England and London School of Economics
- 13:00
-
Lunch and poster session
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Session 2: Inflation expectations
Chair and discussant: Michael Weber, University of Chicago Booth School of Business
- 14:30
-
Monetary policy announcements and expectations: Evidence from German firms
- Zeno Enders, University of Heidelberg and CESifo
- Franziska Hünnekes*, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
Presentation - Gernot J. Müller, University of Tübingen, CEPR, and CESifo
- 15:00
-
How does consumption respond to news about inflation? Field evidence from a randomized control trial
- Olivier Coibion, UT Austin and NBER
- Dimitris Georgarakos, European Central Bank
- Yuriy Gorodnichenko*, University of California, Berkeley
Presentation - Maarten van Rooij, De Nederlandsche Bank
- 16:00
- Coffee break
- 16:30
-
Session 3: Supply side factors
Chair and discussant: Ekaterina Peneva, Federal Reserve Board
- 16:15
-
Understanding low wage growth in the euro area and European countries
- Christiane Nickel, European Central Bank
- Elena Bobeica, European Central Bank
- Gerrit Koester*, European Central Bank
Presentation - Eliza M. Lis, European Central Bank
- Mario Porqueddu, European Central Bank
- 16:45
-
Adjustments along the intensive margin and wages: Evidence from the euro area and the US
- Guido Bulligan, Banca d'Italia
- Elisa Guglielminetti, Banca d'Italia
- Eliana Viviano*, Banca d'Italia
Presentation
- 17:15
-
Joined at the hip? Inflation and demography through time
- Mikael Juselius*, Bank of Finland
- Elöd Takáts, Bank for International Settlements
- 18:15
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End of day one
- 19:00
-
Conference dinner - by invitation only
Dinner speech by Philip Lane, member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank
- 8:45
- Coffee
-
Session 4: Sources of price stickiness
Chair and discussant: Klaus Adam, Oxford University
- 9:00
-
Pipeline pressures and sectoral inflation dynamics
- Frank Smets, European Central Bank, Ghent University and CEPR
- Joris Tielens*, National Bank of Belgium and KU Leuven
Presentation - Jan Van Hove, KU Leuven and KBC
- 9:30
-
The flattening of the Phillips Curve and the learning problem of the central bank
- Jean-Paul L'Huillier*, Brandeis University
Presentation - William R. Zame, UCLA
- Jean-Paul L'Huillier*, Brandeis University
- 10:30
-
Keynote speech
Chair: Frank Smets, Director General Economics, European Central Bank
A Phillips Curve for the euro area
Laurence M. Ball, Johns Hopkins University
Presentation - 11:15
- Coffee break
-
Session 5: Price setting 2
Chair and discussant: Volker Hahn, University of Konstanz
- 11:30
-
The Real Effects of Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Micro Pricing Moments
- Gee Hee Hong, IMF
- Matthew Klepacz, College of William and Mary
- Ernesto Pasten, Central Bank of Chile and Toulouse School of Economics
- Raphael Schoenle*, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Presentation
- 12:00
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Price trends over the product life cycle and the optimal inflation target
- Klaus Adam*, Oxford University
Presentation - Henning Weber, Deutsche Bundesbank
- Klaus Adam*, Oxford University
- 13:00
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Lunch and poster session
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Session 6: International dimensions of inflation
Chair and discussant: Natalie Chen, Warwick University
- 14:30
-
International food commodity prices and missing (dis)inflation in the euro area
Gert Peersman*, Gent University
Presentation - 15:00
-
Dissecting the impact of imports from low-wage countries on French consumer prices
- Juan Carluccio, Banque de France and University of Surrey
- Erwan Gautier, Banque de France and University of Nantes
- Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi*, Banque de France
Presentation
- 15:30
-
Asymmetries and non-linearities in exchange rate pass-through
- Mina Kim*, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Presentation - Logan T. Lewis, Federal Reserve Board
- Robert J. Vigfusson, Federal Reserve Board
- Mina Kim*, Bureau of Labor Statistics
- 16:30
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Concluding remarks
Luis De Guindos, Vice-President, European Central Bank
- 17:00
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End of conference
For those participants interested in furthering their knowledge on the use of big data at the ECB, please stay in the room after the conference for the "ECB data science hackathon award ceremony: Machine learning for automated product classification". The ceremony is scheduled from 17:00-17:30 and will feature short presentations by the winners of the hackathon.
Poster Session 1 (Monday)
Measuring biases in expectation formation
- Simas Kučinskas*, Humboldt University Berlin
- Florian S. Peters, University of Amsterdam
Inflation expectations and firm decisions: New causal evidence
- Olivier Coibion, UT Austin and NBER
- Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California, Berkeley
- Tiziano Ropele*, Banca d'Italia
Monetary policy, firms’ inflation expectations and prices: Causal evidence from firm-level data
- Marco Bottone, Banca d'Italia
- Alfonso Rosolia*, Banca d'Italia
Inflation and professional forecast dynamics: An evaluation of stickiness, persistence, and volatility
- Elmar Mertens*, Deutsche Bundesbank
- James M. Nason, NC State University
The link between labour costs and price inflation in the euro area
- Elena Bobeica*, European Central Bank
- Matteo Ciccarelli, European Central Bank
- Isabel Vansteenkiste, European Central Bank
Poster Session 2 (Tuesday)
Wages and prices in the euro area: Exploring the nexus
- Antonio M. Conti, Banca d'Italia
- Andrea Nobili*, Banca d'Italia
The Pervasive Role of Retail Chains in French Price Dispersion
- Nicoletta Berardi*, Banque de France
- Patrick Sevestre, Greqam-AMSE, Université Aix-Marseille
Nonlinear inflation forecasting with recurrent neural networks
- Anna Almosova*, Humboldt University Berlin
- Niek Andresen, TU Berlin
Low pass-through and high spillovers in NOEM: What does help and what does not
- Gregory De Walque*, National Bank of Belgium
- Thomas Lejeune, Liège University
- Ansgar Rannenberg, National Bank of Belgium
- Raf Wouters, National Bank of Belgium
The effects of price endings on price rigidity: Evidence from VAT changes
- Edward Knotek*, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
- Doron Sayag, Israel Central Bureau of Statistics
- Avichai Snir, Netaya Academic College
This programme may be subject to change without notice.
Audiovisual notice: Please note that media will be attending and photography and filming activities will take place during the event.
General information
European Central Bank
Main building, Press room, Grossmarkthalle
Sonnemannstrasse 20
60314 Frankfurt am Main
+49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
info@ecb.europa.eu
Press room lobby
English
Participants are requested to arrange their own transfers, unless indicated otherwise.
Michael Ehrmann, Marek Jarocinski, Eliza Lis, Christiane Nickel, Chiara Osbat, Andrej Sokol (all European Central Bank)
Conference email address: inflation-conference2019@ecb.europa.eu
Linda de Leeuw
Directorate General Economics
+49 69 1344 8650
PAC-assistants@ecb.int