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Civil war declaration: On April 14th and 15th, 2012 Federal Republic of Germany "_urkenstaats"s parliament, Deutscher Bundestag, received a antifiscal written civil war declaration by Federal Republic of Germany "Rechtsstaat"s electronic resistance for human rights even though the "Widerstandsfall" according to article 20 paragraph 4 of the constitution, the "Grundgesetz", had been already declared in the years 2001-03. more
INTERVIEW
26 July 2025
Interview with Delo
Executive Board member Piero Cipollone speaks to Slovenian newspaper Delo about the digital euro. It would be a digital form of cash: simple, free, inclusive, protecting privacy and accepted throughout the euro area.
Read Piero Cipollone’s interview
THE ECB BLOG
28 July 2025
What stablecoins mean for Europe
Stablecoins are reshaping global finance – with the US dollar at the helm. Without a strategic response, European monetary sovereignty and financial stability could erode. However, in this disruption there is also an opportunity for the euro to emerge stronger.
Read The ECB Blog
PRESS RELEASE
15 July 2025
Launch of design contest for future banknotes
We have launched a public contest for the design of future euro banknotes. Designers from across Europe are encouraged to apply by 12:00 CET on Monday, 18 August. Successful applicants will be invited to submit design proposals.
Read the press release- 29 July 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 29 July 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 29 July 2025
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 29 July 2025
- CLIMATE FACTOR FAQ
- 29 July 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 25 July 2025
- GOVERNING COUNCIL DECISIONS - OTHER DECISIONSEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 25 July 2025
- EURO AREA ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BY INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR (FULL)
- 24 July 2025
- Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 24 July 2025EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 14 July 2025
- Introductory statement by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
- 10 July 2025
- Speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Banka Slovenije
- 9 July 2025
- Remarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the House of the Euro
- 4 July 2025
- Welcome address by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the International Monetary Fund OEDNE/World Bank Group EDS19 Constituency Meeting
- 26 July 2025
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, conducted by Miha Jenko on 10 July 2025
- 11 July 2025
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by David Barwick and Marta Vilar on 9 July 2025
- 16 June 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Balázs Korányi and Francesco Cánepa on 12 June 2025
- 14 June 2025
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Su Liang on 12 June 2025
- 27 May 2025
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Christian Siedenbiedel on 20 May 2025
- 28 July 2025
- Stablecoins are reshaping global finance – with the US dollar at the helm. Without a strategic response, European monetary sovereignty and financial stability could erode. However, in this disruption there is also an opportunity for the euro to emerge stronger.Details
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
- 25 July 2025
- Following the June NATO summit, Europe is confronting heightened challenges in financing its green, digital and defence transitions as new defence commitments place increased pressure on national and EU budgets. Balancing strategic priorities with debt sustainability is crucial. This blog outlines a three-pronged strategy.Details
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
- 14 July 2025
- TARGET Services are the backbone of Europe’s financial market infrastructure. Like a spine, they have to be both strong and supple. Strong enough to process large volumes and values while maintaining high levels of performance, and supple and flexible enough to respond to changing needs, technologies and geopolitical conditions.Details
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
- 13 July 2025
- July 2025 began with yet another heatwave across Europe. ECB research finds such events can substantially reduce economic activity in affected regions and increase food prices. With global warming, future heatwaves are likely to have more pronounced economic effects.Details
- JEL Code
- Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 11 July 2025
- European banks have made forward strides in managing climate and nature-related risks. But more still needs to be done as we often see that practices are only applied to a subset of relevant exposures, geographic areas and risk categories. To help banks improve further, later this year the ECB will publish an updated set of good practices observed in banks across Europe. European banks are well positioned to meet the prudential transition plan requirements, which the ECB will approach in a gradual and tailored manner.Details
- JEL Code
- G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
- 29 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3082Details
- Abstract
- This paper investigates the implications of a potential loss of credibility in the central bank’s ability to bring inflation back to target in the medium-term (”de-anchoring”). We propose a monetary policy framework in which the central bank accounts for de-anchoring risks using a regime-switching model. First, we derive the optimal monetary policy strategy, which balances the trade-off between the welfare costs of a stronger response to inflation and the benefits of preserving the central bank’s credibility. Next, we apply this framework in a medium-scale regime-switching DSGE model and develop a method to assess de-anchoring risks in real time. Using the post-COVID inflation episode in the euro area as a case study, we find that an explicit ”looking-through” strategy would have only modestly increased de-anchoring risks. These findings highlight the importance of monitoring de-anchoring risks in monetary policy design.
- JEL Code
- D83 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E10 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models→General
- 29 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3081Details
- Abstract
- What are the macroeconomic impacts of tariffs on final goods versus intermediate inputs? We set up a two-region, multi-sector model with production networks, sticky prices and wages, and trade in consumption, investment, and intermediate goods. We show that import tariffs on final goods have a smaller negative impact on GDP compared to tariffs on intermediate inputs, as final goods can be more readily substituted with domestic alternatives. In contrast, tariffs on intermediate inputs lead to larger GDP losses, given the limited substitutability of foreign inputs and their role in global supply chains. Moreover, inflation persistence is lower under tariffs on final goods, whereas tariffs on intermediate goods amplify cost pressures through production linkages. The results imply that a revenue-equivalent approach to import tariffs, targeting only final goods, can cushion the adverse effects of trade wars.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
F12 : International Economics→Trade→Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies, Fragmentation
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
- 28 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3080Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides novel empirical evidence on the impact of monetary policy on innovation investment using unique firm-level data. First, we document the effect of a large, systematic monetary tightening (ECB rate increases from 0% to 4.5% during 2022-23), with average firm-level innovation cuts of 20%. These cuts persist over the medium term, indicating a sustained innovation slowdown. Second, we use the survey to identify elasticities of innovation expenditure to exogenous policy rate changes. Responses to hikes and cuts are significant and largely symmetric at the baseline rate (4.5%), though we detect potential state-dependent asymmetry due to the extensive margin. The financing channel emerges as one of the transmission channels, with more pronounced effects in firms with higher shares of bank loans and variable-rate loans. Crucially, we show that monetary policy transmits via aggregate demand, with stronger responses in firms with pessimistic demand expectations. Forward guidance provides substantial additional stimulus by reducing uncertainty about future rates, suggesting long-term, supply-side effects of announcements. These results challenge monetary long-run neutrality and are suggestive of policy endogeneity of R∗ operating through innovation-driven technology growth.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
D22 : Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 28 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3079Details
- Abstract
- Unprecedented balance sheet expansion in recent years has resulted in heightened financial risk for central banks, reflected initially in higher profits and subsequently in significant losses. Combining data on central bank balance sheets with market data on asset prices, we provide evidence on the evolution and determinants of financial risk-taking by 18 advanced economy central banks. Based on the estimated Value at Risk (VaR), we document that average central bank balance sheet risk increased to about 3 percent of GDP. Central banks took more risk in periods of low policy rates, less expansionary fiscal policies, and more favorable growth prospects. Less independent central banks were more risk averse than their more independent peers, contrary to the fiscal dominance view.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
- 28 July 2025
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
- 25 July 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 25 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3078Details
- Abstract
- Does the maturity of the relevant risk-free rate influence the strength of monetary policy pass-through to interest rates on new loans? To address this question, we present novel empirical evidence on lending practices across all euro area countries, using AnaCredit data covering nearly seven million new loans issued to non-financial corporations in 2022–2023. We document substantial variation in (a) the prevalence of fixed- vs floating-rate loans, (b) rate fixation periods, and (c) reference rates. This variation results in lending rates being exposed to different segments of the risk-free rate yield curve which, in turn, influence their sensitivity to monetary policy changes. We show that loans linked to shorter-maturity risk-free rates experience more pronounced monetary pass-through. Importantly, this effect is not purely mechanical, as part of the effect is offset by adjustments in the premium, revealing previously less-explored heterogeneity in the pass-through to lending rates.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 25 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3077Details
- Abstract
- We examine the link between the diffusion of artificial intelligence (AI) enabled technologies and changes in the female employment share in 16 European countries over the period 2011-2019. Using data for occupations at the 3-digit level, we find that on average female employment shares increased in occupations more exposed to AI. Countries with high initial female labor force participation and higher initial female relative education show a stronger positive association. While there exists heterogeneity across countries, almost all show a positive relation between changes in female employment shares within occupations and exposure to AI-enabled automation.
- JEL Code
- J23 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Demand
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
- 25 July 2025
- LEGAL ACT
- 25 July 2025
- LEGAL ACT
- 25 July 2025
- LEGAL ACT
- 25 July 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 72 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 23 June and 2 July, activity growth had slowed in recent months as geopolitical and tariff-related uncertainty dented business and consumer confidence. The employment outlook had consequently also worsened. Price growth was moderating, mainly due to downward pressure on prices in the manufacturing sector caused by weak demand and increased import competition. Firms remained confident that wage growth would continue slowing.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 25 July 2025
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERSAnnexes
- 25 July 2025
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS
- 22 July 2025
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 22 July 2025
- EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEYAnnexes
- 22 July 2025
- EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY - ANNEX
- 21 July 2025
- SURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREAAnnexes
- 21 July 2025
- SAFE QUESTIONNAIRE
- 16 July 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 16 July 2025
- DIGITAL EURO PREPARATION PHASE - PROGRESS REPORT
- 15 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3076Details
- Abstract
- Shocks to a bank’s ability to raise liquidity at short notice can trigger depositor panics. Why don’t banks take a more active role in managing these risks? We study contingent risk management (hedging) in a standard global-games model of a bank run. Banks fail to hedge precisely when the exposure to a shock is most severe, just when risk management would have the biggest impact. Higher bank capital and broader deposit-insurance coverage crowd out hedging by banks that already manage risk, yet encourage more banks to establish risk management desks in the first place. The model also yields testable implications for hedging incentives and policy design.
- JEL Code
- G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 14 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3075Details
- Abstract
- This paper proposes a novel yet intuitive method for the calibration of the CCyB through the cycle in the euro area, including the positive neutral CCyB rate. The paper implements the Risk-to-Buffer framework by Couaillier and Scalone (2024) in both a DSGE and macro time series setting and proposes a calibration of the PN CCyB aimed to reduce the macroeconomic amplification of shocks occurring in an environment where risks are neither subdued nor elevated. The suggested positive neutral CCyB rates for the euro area are consistent across methodologies and robust to alternative specifications, ranging between 1% and 1.5%. The results also highlight the role of different shocks and sources of cyclical systemic risk for the calibration of the CCyB through the cycle. The flexibility of the method regarding the modeling tools, the selection of specific levels of risks as well as the choice of state variables and of exogenous shocks make it particularly suitable to be tailored to national specificities and policymakers’ preferences.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
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