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2016 Q1

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2016 Q1 inflation forecasts
  2016 2017 2018 Dec. 2016 Dec. 2017 2020
Mean point estimate 0.7 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.8
Standard deviation 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 55 53 44 48 47 45
Probability distributions 2016 2017 2018 Dec. 2016 Dec. 2017 2020
<-1.0% 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.20.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 1.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.60.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 6.6 1.5 1.5 4.0 1.41.2
0.0 to 0.4% 20.8 6.4 5.0 13.3 6.13.7
0.5 to 0.9% 36.2 15.1 12.4 28.0 14.39.2
1.0 to 1.4% 24.8 29.3 23.6 29.9 26.322.0
1.5 to 1.9% 7.6 32.3 33.0 15.3 31.132.7
2.0 to 2.4% 1.6 10.3 16.3 5.6 12.818.7
2.5 to 2.9% 0.4 3.2 5.2 1.9 4.67.7
3.0 to 3.4% 0.2 1.0 1.6 0.7 2.03.0
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.51.0
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.20.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2016 Q1 real GDP growth forecasts
  2016 2017 2018 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2020
Mean point estimate 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
Number of replies 57 54 44 46 44 45
Probability distributions 2016 2017 2018 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2020
<-1.0% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.20.4
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.40.8
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.21.8
0.0 to 0.4% 2.4 3.4 4.2 2.9 3.74.7
0.5 to 0.9% 8.7 8.5 10.2 9.6 9.411.0
1.0 to 1.4% 23.8 21.1 22.9 24.4 21.020.3
1.5 to 1.9% 40.9 35.6 30.9 35.8 34.629.0
2.0 to 2.4% 17.2 19.9 19.7 17.1 18.219.8
2.5 to 2.9% 4.3 6.9 7.0 5.9 7.37.7
3.0 to 3.4% 1.2 2.2 2.6 2.1 2.93.0
3.5 to 3.9% 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.81.1
>4.0% 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.30.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2016 Q1 unemployment rate forecasts
  2016 2017 2018 Nov. 2016 Nov. 2017 2020
Mean point estimate 10.3 9.9 9.4 10.1 9.7 9.0
Standard deviation 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.7
Number of replies 52 49 39 43 40 35
Probability distributions 2016 2017 2018 Nov. 2016 Nov. 2017 2020
<6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.00.8
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.21.8
7.0 to 7.4% 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.1 0.33.3
7.5 to 7.9% 0.1 0.5 2.6 0.1 0.56.7
8.0 to 8.4% 0.2 1.5 6.0 0.3 2.313.1
8.5 to 8.9% 1.5 5.4 12.7 1.9 8.816.2
9.0 to 9.4% 4.8 17.8 20.3 7.8 18.018.5
9.5 to 9.9% 19.5 28.9 25.2 23.3 26.818.9
10.0 to 10.4% 37.8 25.8 17.0 32.9 23.411.6
10.5 to 10.9% 25.8 12.3 8.6 22.3 11.55.2
11.0 to 11.4% 7.5 4.7 3.9 7.3 4.92.4
11.5 to 11.9% 1.8 1.8 1.3 2.7 1.91.1
12.0 to 12.4% 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.80.4
12.5 to 12.9% 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.40.2
13.0 to 13.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.20.0
13.5 to 13.9% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0