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2006 Q2

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

	2006	2007	Mar. 2007	Mar. 2008	2010
Mean point estimate	2.1	2.1	2.1	1.9	1.9
Standard deviation	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1
Number of replies	59	59	54	49	47
Probability distributions	2006	2007	Mar. 2007	Mar. 2008	2010
<0.0%	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.5
0.0-0.4%	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.7	1.2
0.5-0.9%	0.5	1.2	0.9	3.3	4.0
1.0-1.4%	3.8	5.5	5.5	13.2	10.8
1.5-1.9%	24.0	29.1	25.4	36.2	36.2
2.0-2.4%	55.5	45.0	46.9	33.5	32.5
2.5-2.9%	13.6	14.4	17.2	9.6	10.2
3.0-3.4%	2.2	3.7	3.2	2.7	3.6
>3.5%	0.3	0.6	0.8	0.8	1.1
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

	2006	2007	2006 Q4	2007 Q4	2010
Mean point estimate	2.1	1.9	2.2	1.8	2.1
Standard deviation	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.4	0.3
Number of replies	60	60	55	53	45
Probability distributions	2006	2007	2006 Q4	2007 Q4	2010
<0.0%	0.2	0.8	0.2	0.3	0.5
0.0-0.4%	0.4	1.2	0.5	0.9	1.2
0.5-0.9%	1.1	2.8	1.2	4.3	3.6
1.0-1.4%	5.2	12.0	6.3	13.6	11.3
1.5-1.9%	28.4	36.8	25.7	37.5	31.5
2.0-2.4%	49.4	33.3	45.9	29.9	31.0
2.5-2.9%	12.6	9.7	16.1	10.0	14.0
3.0-3.4%	2.0	2.3	3.2	2.5	4.7
3.5-3.9%	0.5	0.7	0.7	0.6	1.7
>4.0%	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.4	0.5
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

	2006	2007	Feb. 2007	Feb. 2008	2010
Mean point estimate	8.1	7.9	8.0	7.7	7.2
Standard deviation	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.5
Number of replies	59	58	53	46	43
Probability distributions	2006	2007	Feb. 2007	Feb. 2008	2010
<5.5%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	1.0
5.5-5.9%	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	2.1
6.0-6.4%	0.1	0.3	0.2	1.4	7.4
6.5-6.9%	0.4	2.1	1.2	4.8	14.3
7.0-7.4%	2.3	10.4	7.1	14.8	25.5
7.5-7.9%	25.6	37.3	36.1	39.3	25.4
8.0-8.4%	55.0	37.4	43.0	29.9	15.7
8.5-8.9%	13.5	9.3	9.6	6.7	5.6
9.0-9.4%	1.9	1.9	1.7	1.6	2.1
9.5-9.9%	0.8	0.7	0.7	0.6	0.9
10.0-10.4%	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.2
10.5-10.9%	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
>11.0%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

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