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Ernest Dautović
Economics
- Division
Business Cycle Analysis
- Current Position
-
Economist
- Fields of interest
-
Financial Economics,Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,Labour Economics
- Education
- 2019
PhD in Economics, University of Lausanne, Switzerland
- 2014
Doctoral School in Economics "Gerzensee", Swiss National Bank
- 2009
MSc International Economics, University of Amsterdam, Netherlands
- 2009
MSc Statistics and Economics, University "La Sapienza" Rome, Italy
- 2006
BSc Statistics and Finance, University of Bologna, Italy
- Professional experience
- 2024-
ECB – DG Economics
- 2023-2024
ECB – Banking supervision
- 2023
ECB – DG Economics
- 2021-2022
ECB – Banking supervision
- 2022
ECB – DG Research
- 2020-2021
ECB – DG Macroprudential Policy & Financial Stability
- 2020
ECB – SSM Office of the Chair - Analytical Research Team
- 2017-2020
ECB – Banking supervision - Crisis Management
- 2016-2017
The World Bank - Europe & Central Asia Chief Economist
- 2016-2017
European Systemic Risk Board
- 2015-2016
The World Bank Research Department, Private Sector Development
- 2015
The World Bank - Trade & Competitiveness Global Practice
- 2012
ECB – DG International and European Relations
- Awards
- 2016
Nesta and Kauffman Foundation Grant for research on innovative enterprises
- 2015
World Bank i2i and UK Dpt. for International Development Impact Evaluation Research Grant
- Teaching experience
- 2013-2017
Teaching Assistant - University of Lausanne
- 22 October 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2993Details
- Abstract
- The phenomenon of political populism and its financial determinants have proved elusive. We utilise the sudden and uneven change in credit conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the unprecedented government credit guarantee programme in France to investigate whether liquidity support to firms affects political preferences. Drawing on credit registry data – which provides the universe of loans and credit lines to firms – we build a postcode-municipality-level dataset and show that government-guaranteed credit reduced the support for the far right but increased it for the incumbent. The underlying economic channel shows that credit guarantees preserved employment, which in turn influenced political preferences. Effects are driven by microenterprises, predominantly self-employed businesses in which the employee-owner-voter is fully aware of the government financial support, i.e., where government support is more salient. This study does not aim to evaluate policies to address the popularity of populist politics.
- JEL Code
- D72 : Microeconomics→Analysis of Collective Decision-Making→Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
H81 : Public Economics→Miscellaneous Issues→Governmental Loans, Loan Guarantees, Credits, Grants, Bailouts
- 21 March 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Rising trade tensions and a spate of policies aiming to bring national security concerns to bear in trade relations have sparked growing concern about the potential implications of global trade fragmentation. Yet, empirical evidence that geopolitical concerns are already materially affecting trade patterns is scant. This box addresses the issue using a structural gravity model augmented with a geopolitical distance measure based on UN General Assembly voting to investigate the role played by geopolitical factors for trade in manufacturing goods over the period 2012-22. It provides evidence that the degree of geopolitical alignment is playing an increasing role in determining bilateral trade flows. The impact of geopolitical distance on trade is heterogeneous: in particular, geopolitical considerations mostly affect European trade in strategic products.
- JEL Code
- F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
- 26 May 2023
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 107Details
- Abstract
- At the onset of the outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, central banks and supervisors introduced dividend restrictions as a new policy instrument aimed at supporting lending to the real economy and strengthening banks' capacity to absorb losses. In this paper we estimate the impact of the ECB's dividend recommendationon on bank lending and risk-taking. To address identification issues, we rely on credit registry data and a direct measure that captures variation in compliance with the recommendation across banks in the euro area. The analysis disentangles the confounding effects stemming from the wide range of monetary and fiscal policies that supported credit during the pandemic-related downturn and investigates their interaction with the dividend recommendation. We find that dividend restrictions have been an effective policy in supporting financially constrained firms, adding capital space to banks, and limiting procyclical behaviour. The effects on lending are greater for small and medium-sized enterprises and for firms operating in sectors more vulnerable to the effects of the pandemic. At the same time, we do not find evidence of a significant increase in lending to riskier borrowers and "zombie" firms.
- JEL Code
- E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 21 March 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2796Details
- Abstract
- At the onset of the Covid-19 outbreak, central banks and supervisors introduced dividend restrictions as a new policy instrument aimed at supporting lending to the real economy and strengthening banks’ capacity to absorb losses. In this paper we estimate the impact of the ECB’s dividend recommendation on bank lending and risk-taking. To address identification issues, we rely on credit registry data and a direct measure that captures variation in compliance with the recommendation across banks in the euro area. The analysis disentangles the confounding effects stemming from the wide range of monetary and fiscal policies that supported credit during the Covid-19 downturn and investigates their interaction with the dividend recommendation. We find that dividend restrictions have been an effective policy in supporting financially constrained firms, adding capital space to banks, and limiting procyclical behaviour. The effects on lending are larger for small and medium enterprises and for firms operating in Covid-19 vulnerable sectors. At the same time, we do not find evidence of a significant increase in lending to riskier borrowers and ”zombie” firms.
- JEL Code
- E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 28 June 2021
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 13Details
- Abstract
- This article studies the impact of the ECB’s dividend recommendations on banks’ lending and loss-absorption capacity during the COVID-19 crisis. It finds that the policy has been effective in mitigating the potential procyclical adjustment of banks. Banks that did not distribute previously planned dividends increased their lending by around 2.4% and their provisions by approximately 5.5%, thus strengthening their capacity to absorb losses. Notably, the recommendations appear to have mitigated the procyclical behaviour of banks closer to the threshold for automatic restrictions on distributions. Overall, the recommendations were successful in conserving capital and helping the banking system support the real economy and facilitate the recognition of future losses.
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G35 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Payout Policy
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 24 July 2020
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2449Details
- Abstract
- The paper evaluates the impact of a phased-in introduction of capital requirements on equity, risk-taking, and probability of default for a sample of European systemically important banks. Contrary to the case of a one-off introduction of capital requirements, this study does not find evidence of deleveraging through asset sales. A phased-in tightening promotes adjustment to lower leverage via an increase in equity thereby improving resilience and loss absorption capacity. The higher resilience comes at the cost of a portfolio reallocation towards riskier assets. Consistently with models on agency costs and gambling for resurrection, the risk-taking is driven by large and less profitable banks. The net impact on bank probabilities of default is positive albeit statistically insignificant, suggesting that risk-taking may crowd-out solvency.
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
- 16 April 2020
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2391Details
- Abstract
- Innovative firms with good ideas may still struggle to fine-tune them to the stage where they can attract outside funding. We conduct a five-country randomized experiment that tests the impact of an investment readiness program. Firms then pitched their ideas to independent judges. The program resulted in a 0.3 standard deviation increase in the investment readiness score. Two years later, the average impacts on firm investment outcomes are positive, but small in magnitude, and not statistically significant. Larger and statistically significant impacts on receiving outside funding occur for smaller firms, and for firms with lower likelihoods of otherwise being funded.
- JEL Code
- L26 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior→Entrepreneurship
M2 : Business Administration and Business Economics, Marketing, Accounting→Business Economics
M13 : Business Administration and Business Economics, Marketing, Accounting→Business Administration→New Firms, Startups
O1 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development
- 2 December 2019
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2333Details
- Abstract
- The paper evaluates the impact of the Chinese minimum wage policy on consumption of low-wage households for the period 2002-2009. Using a representative household panel, we find that the consumption response to minimum wage income shock is increasing in the minimum wage share of household income and that poorer households fully consume their additional income. The large marginal propensity to consume is driven by households with at least one child, while childless poor households save two thirds of a minimum wage hike. The expenditure increase is concentrated in health care and education with potentially long-lasting benefits to household welfare.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
J38 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Public Policy
C26 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
- 18 August 2014
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1719Details
- Abstract
- The rapid increase in intra-industry trade (IIT) between the EU15 and Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European (CESEE) countries after the collapse of the Soviet Union indicates a structural change in the nature of trade in CESEE and a new process of transition and real convergence to the EU. Using a product-level trade flows database and employing linear and non-linear panel data specifications, this paper assesses the determinants of intra-industry trade between the EU15 as the main trading block and CESEE, which are further divided into the
- JEL Code
- F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F15 : International Economics→Trade→Economic Integration
F10 : International Economics→Trade→General
- 2024
- Review of Economics and Statistics
- 2021
- Review of Economics and Statistics
- 2019
- ESRB Working Paper Series n.91
- 2018
- Constitutional Political Economy
- 2018
- World Bank Europe and Central Asia Studies
- 2017
- Economics of Transition
- 2017
- International Economics and Economic Policy