Exploring the factors behind the 2018 widening in euro area corporate bond spreads

Prepared by Lena Boneva, Gregory Kidd and Ine Van Robays

Published as part of the ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 3/2019.

Global corporate bond spreads trended upwards over the course of 2018. Euro area investment grade non-financial corporate (NFC) bond spreads increased by around 60 basis points and peaked at just above 1%, close to the levels which had prevailed prior to the announcement of the ECB’s corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP) in March 2016 (see Chart A). Spreads on non-investment grade NFC debt widened more significantly, by around 200 basis points, and peaked at around 4%. The trend increase in euro area NFC bond spreads mirrored developments in global corporate bond markets; in the United States and the United Kingdom, spreads increased by around 80 and 60 basis points over the same time frame and peaked at 1.80% and 2.10%, respectively. Since the turn of the year, global NFC bond spreads have reversed a large part of the 2018 increase but nevertheless remain at elevated levels relative to those which prevailed in 2017. Furthermore, the largely synchronised movement in global spreads over this time frame alludes to a role for a common global factor, rather than a euro area-specific driver.

Changes in underlying credit risk fundamentals are unable to explain most of the increase in euro area corporate spreads over 2018. A model decomposition of NFC spreads into credit risk fundamentals and a residual component, the excess bond premia (EBP), identifies the EBP as the most prominent driver over 2018 (see Chart B).^[1] The residual EBP component captures the drivers of credit spreads which are not related to credit risk fundamentals, measured in the model through expected default frequencies and changes in credit ratings. Thus, by implication, the recent slowdown in euro area macroeconomic growth is yet to translate into credit rating downgrades or a rise in expected corporate defaults.

Further analysis suggests that spillovers from the United States and increased global risk aversion were the main contributors to the widening in spreads, with a more limited role being played by the deterioration in the euro area macroeconomic outlook. A Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model is estimated, which incorporates sign restrictions on cross-asset price movements in the United States and euro area variables to identify euro area macroeconomic and monetary shocks, as well as shocks originating in the United States and a global risk factor (see Chart C).^[2] All identified shocks are found to have exerted upward pressure on euro area NFC spreads over the course of 2018. Moreover, the two key factors that account for most of the spread widening appear to be spillovers from the United States and the related global risk factor. The deterioration in the euro area macroeconomic outlook likewise provided some upward impetus, but to a more limited extent.

The global risk factor is dominant in explaining widening NFCs spreads over the fourth quarter of 2018. Other risk asset markets also declined over this period, as shown by a significant fall in NFC equity prices. One dividend discount model suggests that the decline in equity prices was not primarily driven by downward revisions to analysts’ expectations regarding future corporate profitability, but by an increase in equity risk premia. Thus the increase in the global risk component was likely related to a broader deterioration in risk sentiment across risk asset markets. The source of this was most likely a rise in macroeconomic and political uncertainty, primarily in relation to global trade disputes. Since the turn of the year, the global risk factor has again been prominent in driving the moderation of spreads, reflecting a broad-based return of risk to a swathe of risk asset markets, including credit and equity markets. This was spurred by dissipation in perceived risks, supported by the communication by the Federal Open Market Committee at its January meeting that it would be patient with future adjustments to its policy rate.

The contribution of euro area monetary policy to the widening of corporate spreads is limited. The BVAR model suggests that only 5 basis points of the total 60 basis points of widening in corporate bond spreads can be attributed to euro area monetary policy. This conclusion is also supported by other evidence. Throughout 2018, spreads in both CSPP eligible and ineligible bonds increased by a similar magnitude. This stands in contrast to developments following the announcement of the CSPP in March 2016, at which point spreads in eligible bonds fell to a greater extent than those of ineligible bonds.^[3] Furthermore, NFC spreads did not discernibly react to ECB policy announcements over this period. Finally, anecdotal evidence from market counterparties suggests that the end of Eurosystem asset purchases was widely anticipated and was only a background theme throughout 2018, rather than a prominent driver.

Regardless of the increase in NFC spreads since January 2018, broader financing conditions still remain very favourable. Market-based debt financing only represents a small share of broader NFC financing. Since the cost of other sources of financing has remained more stable, this implies that the increase in the weighted average cost of financing for NFCs has remained contained overall (see Chart D).^[4] In addition, supply conditions in primary corporate bond markets remain healthier, in terms of issuance volume, than in the years prior to the launch of the CSPP.