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2020 Q4

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2020 Q4 inflation forecasts
  2020 2021 2022 Sep. 2021 Sep. 2022 2025
Mean point estimate 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.7
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 62 61 55 49 45 46
Probability distributions 2020 2021 2022 Sep. 2021 Sep. 2022 2025
<-4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-4.0 to -3.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-3.5 to -3.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-3.0 to -2.6% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.10.1
-2.5 to -2.1% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.10.1
-2.0 to -1.6% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.30.1
-1.5 to -1.1% 0.8 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.70.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 2.6 1.5 0.8 2.1 1.20.6
-0.5 to -0.1% 11.2 5.9 2.9 5.2 2.81.8
0.0 to 0.4% 59.8 13.8 9.0 11.4 8.95.8
0.5 to 0.9% 20.2 29.7 18.0 18.0 17.311.2
1.0 to 1.4% 3.2 31.4 33.2 33.1 31.820.6
1.5 to 1.9% 1.1 11.8 23.0 18.6 21.331.9
2.0 to 2.4% 0.4 3.5 8.2 7.0 9.815.8
2.5 to 2.9% 0.1 1.1 2.6 2.3 3.66.6
3.0 to 3.4% 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.5 1.52.9
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.41.4
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.20.7
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2020 Q4 core inflation forecasts
  2020 2021 2022 Sep. 2021 Sep. 2022 2025
Mean point estimate 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.5
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 44 44 40 38 35 34
Probability distributions 2020 2021 2022 Sep. 2021 Sep. 2022 2025
<-4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-4.0 to -3.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-3.5 to -3.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-3.0 to -2.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
-2.5 to -2.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
-2.0 to -1.6% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.30.2
-1.5 to -1.1% 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.50.4
-1.0 to -0.6% 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.50.6
-0.5 to -0.1% 3.9 4.7 2.7 5.0 3.41.7
0.0 to 0.4% 15.3 15.4 9.6 12.7 10.26.2
0.5 to 0.9% 60.5 40.0 23.5 26.6 24.212.4
1.0 to 1.4% 14.4 27.9 35.9 31.4 30.923.9
1.5 to 1.9% 2.8 7.8 17.6 16.8 18.532.5
2.0 to 2.4% 0.8 1.7 6.3 4.1 6.912.6
2.5 to 2.9% 0.3 0.4 1.6 1.0 2.15.2
3.0 to 3.4% 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.92.5
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.41.3
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2020 Q4 real GDP growth forecasts
  2020 2021 2022 2021 Q2 2022 Q2 2025
Mean point estimate -7.8 5.3 2.6 12.7 2.9 1.4
Standard deviation 0.6 0.8 0.7 2.3 0.9 0.3
Number of replies 64 63 57 44 43 45
Probability distributions 2020 2021 2022 2021 Q2 2022 Q2 2025
<-15.0% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-15.0 to -13.1% 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-13.0 to -11.1% 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-11.0 to -9.1% 16.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-9.0 to -7.1% 53.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-7.0 to -5.1% 19.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-5.0 to -3.1% 4.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.20.1
-3.0 to -1.1% 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.30.6
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.61.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.1 1.12.7
0.0 to 0.4% 0.0 0.3 2.0 0.1 2.36.8
0.5 to 0.9% 0.0 0.5 4.2 0.1 3.714.9
1.0 to 1.4% 0.0 0.6 6.7 0.2 5.125.0
1.5 to 1.9% 0.0 1.7 11.8 0.3 13.524.5
2.0 to 2.4% 0.0 2.1 20.5 0.4 16.314.0
2.5 to 2.9% 0.0 3.9 22.1 0.5 17.66.5
3.0 to 3.4% 0.0 8.2 17.6 1.0 16.12.2
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 15.9 7.8 2.2 11.80.8
4.0 to 5.9% 0.0 36.5 4.7 7.1 8.30.3
6.0 to 7.9% 0.0 23.4 1.1 9.7 2.30.1
8.0 to 9.9% 0.0 5.5 0.2 14.6 0.70.0
>10.0% 0.0 1.1 0.0 63.6 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2020 Q4 unemployment rate forecasts
  2020 2021 2022 Aug. 2021 Aug. 2022 2025
Mean point estimate 8.3 9.1 8.4 9.1 8.4 7.6
Standard deviation 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.5
Number of replies 54 53 48 38 35 38
Probability distributions 2020 2021 2022 Aug. 2021 Aug. 2022 2025
<5.5% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.20.8
5.5 to 5.9% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.52.1
6.0 to 6.4% 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.8 1.25.0
6.5 to 6.9% 0.8 0.9 2.2 1.1 2.411.1
7.0 to 7.4% 4.3 2.2 5.8 1.9 6.419.7
7.5 to 7.9% 25.4 6.6 14.9 4.6 13.921.8
8.0 to 8.4% 35.7 13.8 23.0 16.2 20.216.1
8.5 to 8.9% 17.0 20.1 19.2 16.0 15.89.6
9.0 to 9.4% 7.7 22.7 13.1 16.9 13.37.1
9.5 to 9.9% 3.0 13.0 7.6 14.0 8.73.3
10.0 to 10.4% 1.9 6.7 4.7 9.2 5.51.9
10.5 to 10.9% 1.8 4.3 3.8 5.9 3.30.8
11.0 to 11.4% 1.2 3.9 1.7 3.7 2.20.3
11.5 to 11.9% 0.4 2.5 1.3 2.5 4.20.2
12.0 to 12.4% 0.3 1.5 0.7 1.7 1.10.1
12.5 to 12.9% 0.0 0.7 0.3 3.5 0.60.1
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.9 0.20.0
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.20.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0