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2018 Q3

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2018 Q3 inflation forecasts
  2018 2019 2020 June 2019 June 2020 2023
Mean point estimate 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 53 52 40 47 34 40
Probability distributions 2018 2019 2020 June 2019 June 2020 2023
<-1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.10.1
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.20.2
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.71.1
0.0 to 0.4% 0.7 1.8 2.4 2.5 2.72.7
0.5 to 0.9% 3.7 6.9 6.9 7.7 7.76.5
1.0 to 1.4% 21.0 22.2 17.9 25.3 19.616.2
1.5 to 1.9% 55.4 42.2 39.5 39.9 38.436.5
2.0 to 2.4% 15.2 19.6 22.1 17.0 20.121.0
2.5 to 2.9% 2.5 5.3 7.1 5.1 7.29.1
3.0 to 3.4% 0.8 1.2 2.4 1.1 2.34.0
3.5 to 3.9% 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.61.9
>4.0% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.30.7
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2018 Q3 core inflation forecasts
  2018 2019 2020 June 2019 June 2020 2023
Mean point estimate 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.8
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 35 33 26 32 24 26
Probability distributions 2018 2019 2020 June 2019 June 2020 2023
<-1.0% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.20.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.20.4
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.70.9
0.0 to 0.4% 2.2 2.1 1.8 2.3 1.42.9
0.5 to 0.9% 17.6 11.7 8.9 14.2 9.57.5
1.0 to 1.4% 57.5 37.2 26.9 41.1 31.922.4
1.5 to 1.9% 19.1 35.0 40.4 31.1 38.937.1
2.0 to 2.4% 2.2 11.4 15.8 9.0 12.518.6
2.5 to 2.9% 0.6 1.7 3.6 1.4 3.45.8
3.0 to 3.4% 0.2 0.4 1.6 0.4 1.12.8
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.21.1
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.2
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2018 Q3 real GDP growth forecasts
  2018 2019 2020 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 2023
Mean point estimate 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.6
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3
Number of replies 56 54 41 50 39 38
Probability distributions 2018 2019 2020 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 2023
<-1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.20.6
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.51.0
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.6 1.22.3
0.0 to 0.4% 0.3 1.7 4.0 1.5 2.94.8
0.5 to 0.9% 1.3 5.2 9.8 4.4 8.110.5
1.0 to 1.4% 5.7 14.7 19.8 12.5 19.021.2
1.5 to 1.9% 26.1 33.5 34.9 31.7 32.930.8
2.0 to 2.4% 47.6 29.9 18.7 32.0 22.817.1
2.5 to 2.9% 15.3 9.9 6.8 11.5 8.17.3
3.0 to 3.4% 2.6 2.9 2.6 3.4 2.82.9
3.5 to 3.9% 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.91.2
>4.0% 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.50.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2018 Q3 unemployment rate forecasts
  2018 2019 2020 May 2019 May 2020 2023
Mean point estimate 8.3 7.9 7.6 7.9 7.6 7.5
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6
Number of replies 51 49 36 40 32 33
Probability distributions 2018 2019 2020 May 2019 May 2020 2023
<5.5% 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.51.5
5.5 to 5.9% 0.1 0.3 1.4 0.4 1.22.9
6.0 to 6.4% 0.2 1.1 3.0 0.8 3.06.8
6.5 to 6.9% 0.7 3.1 9.1 2.2 8.712.1
7.0 to 7.4% 2.0 13.0 27.3 10.7 23.516.8
7.5 to 7.9% 13.7 36.3 29.6 33.5 27.423.3
8.0 to 8.4% 54.5 29.2 17.4 33.6 21.117.8
8.5 to 8.9% 22.5 11.4 7.6 13.2 9.58.9
9.0 to 9.4% 4.3 3.8 2.6 3.5 3.35.1
9.5 to 9.9% 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.92.5
10.0 to 10.4% 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.51.2
10.5 to 10.9% 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.20.6
11.0 to 11.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.3
11.5 to 11.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.2
12.0 to 12.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
12.5 to 12.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0