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2007 Q1

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2007 Q1 inflation forecasts
  2007 2008 Dec. 2007 Dec. 2008 2011
Mean point estimate 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9
Standard deviation 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
Number of replies 63 61 56 54 51
Probability distributions 2007 2008 Dec. 2007 Dec. 2008 2011
<0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.10.2
0.0-0.4% 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.40.9
0.5-0.9% 0.8 1.8 0.9 1.93.1
1.0-1.4% 6.2 10.0 6.9 11.312.0
1.5-1.9% 38.0 43.8 36.3 43.539.4
2.0-2.4% 43.8 33.4 41.8 31.230.7
2.5-2.9% 9.4 8.8 11.6 9.39.8
3.0-3.4% 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.12.9
>3.5% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.30.9
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2007 Q1 real GDP growth forecasts
  2007 2008 2007 Q3 2008 Q3 2011
Mean point estimate 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 63 60 54 52 46
Probability distributions 2007 2008 2007 Q3 2008 Q3 2011
<0.0% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.10.6
0.0-0.4% 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.61.4
0.5-0.9% 1.1 2.2 1.3 2.63.5
1.0-1.4% 5.2 8.2 7.8 8.612.8
1.5-1.9% 26.1 26.4 30.5 26.528.9
2.0-2.4% 45.8 42.2 41.4 39.032.5
2.5-2.9% 17.1 16.0 15.1 18.114.6
3.0-3.4% 3.1 3.2 2.6 3.63.6
3.5-3.9% 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.71.5
>4.0% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.10.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2007 Q1 unemployment rate forecasts
  2007 2008 Nov. 2007 Nov. 2008 2011
Mean point estimate 7.5 7.3 7.4 7.2 6.9
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5
Number of replies 61 58 50 47 42
Probability distributions 2007 2008 Nov. 2007 Nov. 2008 2011
<5.5% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.11.7
5.5-5.9% 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.43.7
6.0-6.4% 0.7 2.4 0.9 2.910.4
6.5-6.9% 4.9 15.6 8.5 21.227.8
7.0-7.4% 39.1 39.8 39.2 36.626.4
7.5-7.9% 40.6 28.0 35.5 24.716.9
8.0-8.4% 10.6 10.4 11.7 10.37.3
8.5-8.9% 2.7 2.5 3.1 3.03.5
9.0-9.4% 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.71.4
9.5-9.9% 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.10.7
10.0-10.4% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.00.2
10.5-10.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>11.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0