Nie ma wersji polskiej
Sercan Eraslan
- 15 January 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This article examines the key challenges for short-term forecasting of euro area economic activity since the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the persistently elevated levels of uncertainty. It details the significant enhancements made to the short-term forecasting models of the ECB as part of a general review aimed at improving their accuracy. It also highlights exploratory work on alternative approaches using advanced machine learning methods, which offer promising avenues to address the complexities of economic forecasting in times of high uncertainty.
- JEL Code
- C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy