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Othman Bouabdallah
Economics
- Division
Fiscal Policies
- Current Position
-
Principal Economist
- Fields of interest
-
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,Public Economics
- Education
- 1999-2004
PhD Paris1 - Sorbonne
- Professional experience
- 2013-
Economist at the ECB
- 2009-2013
Economist at Banque de France
- 2006-2009
Economist at French Ministry of Finance
- Teaching experience
- 2009-2013
Switching regime models in macroeconomics and finance - Superior National School of Advanced Techniques - France
- 2007-2011
Advanced macroeconometrics - Université Cergy-Pontoise
- 2006-2008
Advanced Econometrics - Université Paris IX Dauphine
- 2005-2005
Econometrics - Université Paris IX Dauphine
- 2001-2005
Statistics - Université d’Evry
- 2004-2005
Macroeconomics Université d’Evry
- 27 June 2024
- THE ECB BLOGDetails
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
H50 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→General
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
- 24 May 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 349Details
- Abstract
- This paper reviews the main arguments underpinning the reform of the EU’s fiscal framework, which has culminated in the adoption by the EU legislators of a revised set of rules for the European economic governance including the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). It takes a chronological approach by first discussing the Commission’s legislative proposals of April 2023 against the pre-reform set of fiscal rules, before assessing the final political agreement which has materialised in the revised set of rules. In view of the multi-dimensional reform outcome, it is argued that the success of the reform of the fiscal framework will ultimately depend on its future implementation by the Commission and the Council. Combining the reform of the fiscal rules with better fiscal coordination through the establishment of a permanent euro area fiscal capacity was not proposed in the context of this reform. This paper argues that completing the architecture of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) is an important missing element and should remain a policy priority.
- JEL Code
- H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
H11 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government→Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government
H50 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→General
- 25 April 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Following the European Commission’s legislative proposals of April 2023, the ECOFIN Council reached an agreement on the reform of the fiscal rules underpinning the EU Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) on 20 December 2023. This box provides a preliminary assessment of the potential macroeconomic effects of the EU fiscal framework reform over the horizon of the March 2024 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area. In light of the agreement reached by the EU co-legislators on 10 February 2024, the box concludes that adhering to the requirements under the revised fiscal framework would imply some additional fiscal tightening over 2025-26, which, in turn, may entail some downside risks to growth, although these are rather small. The inflation impact is assessed as being limited.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
O40 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 1 February 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 337Details
- Abstract
- In the low inflation and low interest rate environment that prevailed over the period 2013-2020, many argued that besides expansionary monetary policy, expansionary fiscal policy could also support central banks’ efforts to bring inflation closer to target. During the pandemic, proper alignment of fiscal and monetary policy was again crucial in promoting a rapid macroeconomic recovery. Since the end of 2021 an environment of higher inflation, lower growth, higher uncertainty, and higher interest rates has changed the nature of the required policy mix and poses different challenges to the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy. Following up on the work done under the ECB’s 2020 strategy review (see Debrun et al., 2021), this report explores some of the renewed challenges to monetary and fiscal policy interactions in an environment of high inflation. The main general conclusion is that, with an independent monetary policy that aims to bring inflation back to target in a timely manner, it is still possible to design fiscal policy in a way that protects vulnerable parts of society against the costs of high inflation without pulling against the central bank’s effort to tame inflation. This is more likely to be the case if fiscal measures are temporary and targeted, and if priority is given to structural reforms and public investment in support of potential growth. The latter is particularly effective in reshaping the supply side of the economy in a manner that is likely to have a lasting positive structural impact.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
- 9 November 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2871Details
- Abstract
- In most euro area countries, the monetary/fiscal policy mix is responsible for the changing history of debt and inflation facts. Using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with Markov-switching policy rules, we identify three distinct monetary/fiscal regimes in France and Italy: a Passive Monetary-Active Fiscal regime (PM/AF) before the late 80s/early 90s; an Active Monetary-Passive Fiscal regime (AM/PF) with central bank independence and EMU convergence; a third regime with policy rates at the effective lower bound combined with fiscal active behavior to sustain the recovery. Our simulations reveal that the PM/AF regime in France led to price volatility and debt stabilisation, while the AM/PF regime resulted in disinflation and rising debt trajectory. Meanwhile, Italy’s procyclical fiscal policy in downturns contributed to persisting imbalances, high aggregate volatility, and low growth.
- JEL Code
- E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
- 13 February 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This article assesses the relation between fiscal policy and inflation, with a focus on the euro area and the period 2022-25 (corresponding to the horizon of the December 2022 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area). Overall, the article concludes that, even without the discretionary policy response to the high energy prices and inflation (assessed at close to 2% of GDP over the 2022-23 period), the euro area budget balance could be negatively affected by the current high inflation beyond the short term. This is primarily explained by the nature of the inflation shock, which has a substantial external, energy-driven component, and its large size. Such factors lead to more limited gains on the revenue side of the budget, which in turn can easily be outweighed in the following years by extra spending pressures. In terms of the euro area debt-to-GDP ratio, the analysis shows that a negative impact on economic activity from an adverse supply shock, given the monetary policy reaction, may outweigh the positive initial impact of higher inflation through the denominator effect. The discretionary fiscal policy measures that have so far been adopted to shield the economy from the impact of high inflation in turn lower the inflationary pressures over the 2022-23 period, with a broad estimated reversal of the effect afterwards. The degree to which these fiscal measures will influence price dynamics is highly uncertain.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
- 4 January 2023
- THE ECB BLOGDetails
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H30 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→General
E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
- 27 April 2022
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 291Details
- Abstract
- This paper assesses the potential economic impact of Next Generation EU (NGEU), focusing on the euro area. Its findings suggest that the envisaged national investment and reform plans present a coherent package to support both recovery from the pandemic-induced crisis and longer-term modernisation of the euro area economy through their digital and green transitions. NGEU, however, can only unfold its full potential if all plans are implemented in a timely and effective way. We estimate the impact of the national plans on output, inflation and public debt using ECB staff economic models under the assumption of successful implementation. Specifically, NGEU is expected to take effect through three channels: structural reform, fiscal stimulus and risk premium. Overall, NGEU may increase gross domestic product (GDP) in the euro area by up to 1.5% by 2026, with the impact expected to be significantly larger in the main beneficiary countries. In Italy and Spain, two of the main beneficiaries, the public debt-to-GDP ratio may be more than 10 percentage points lower by 2031. At the same time, all euro area countries are expected to benefit from NGEU through positive spillovers, greater economic resilience and convergence across countries. Finally, the effect of NGEU on euro area inflation over the medium term is deemed to be contained to the extent that the inflationary effect of additional public expenditure is offset, at least to some degree, by the disinflationary effect of greater productive capacity resulting from the planned structural reform and investment measures.
- JEL Code
- C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
E02 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Institutions and the Macroeconomy
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
H87 : Public Economics→Miscellaneous Issues→International Fiscal Issues, International Public Goods
O52 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economywide Country Studies→Europe
- 17 November 2021
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2021Details
- Abstract
- Euro area sovereigns have issued significant amounts of new debt in response to the pandemic. While fiscal support was crucial to limit economic scarring and aid the recovery, it has also triggered concerns about medium to longer-term sovereign debt sustainability. One of the key factors for assessing sovereign debt sustainability is the interest rate-growth differential (
- JEL Code
- E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
H62 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Deficit, Surplus
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
H68 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
- 21 September 2021
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 273Details
- Abstract
- The last review of the ECB’s monetary policy strategy in 2003 followed a period of predominantly upside risks to price stability. Experience following the 2008 financial crisis has focused renewed attention on the question of how monetary and fiscal policy should best interact, in particular in an environment of structurally low interest rates and persistent downside risks to price stability. This debate has been further intensified by the economic impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In the euro area, the unique architecture of a monetary union consisting of sovereign Member States, with cross-country heterogeneities and weaknesses in its overall construction, poses important challenges. Against this background, this report revisits monetary-fiscal policy interactions in the euro area from a monetary policy perspective and with a focus on the ramifications for price stability and maintaining central bank independence and credibility. The report consists of three parts. The first chapter presents a conceptual framework for thinking about monetary-fiscal policy interactions, thereby setting the stage for a discussion of specifically euro area aspects and challenges in subsequent parts of the report. In particular, it reviews the main ingredients of the pre-global financial crisis consensus on monetary-fiscal policy interactions and addresses significant new insights and refinements which have gained prominence since 2003. In doing so, the chapter distinguishes between general conceptual aspects – i.e. those aspects that pertain to an environment characterised by a single central bank and a single fiscal authority and those aspects that pertain to an environment characterised by a single central bank and many fiscal authorities (a multi-country monetary union). ...
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
- 23 September 2020
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2020Details
- Abstract
- Fiscal policy is playing a key role in stemming the economic fallout from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In addition to the discretionary fiscal policy measures employed by governments, automatic fiscal stabilisers play an important role in cushioning the economic downturn. This article shows that automatic fiscal stabilisers are generally sizeable in the euro area, but vary significantly across Member States. However, their effectiveness may be more limited at the current juncture, given the nature of the COVID-19 crisis and the high uncertainty surrounding its effects. This provides a rationale for a stronger role of discretionary fiscal policy at national and European level. Over the medium term, fiscal policies could increasingly make use of quasi-automatic fiscal instruments that provide additional timely, targeted and temporary macroeconomic stabilisation for the euro area. Careful consideration should be given to the design of such instruments over the business cycle, their economic efficiency, and to the need for building fiscal buffers in good times.
- JEL Code
- H12 : Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government→Crisis Management
H20 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→General
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
- 10 April 2017
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 185Details
- Abstract
- The euro area sovereign debt crisis has highlighted the importance of reducing public debt levels and building up sufficient fiscal buffers during normal and good times. It has also reaffirmed the need for a thorough debt sustainability analysis (DSA) to act as a warning system for national policies. This paper introduces a comprehensive DSA framework for euro area sovereigns that could be used for analysis of fiscal risks and vulnerabilities. Specifically, this framework consists of three main building blocks: (i) a deterministic DSA, which embeds debt simulations under a benchmark and various narrative shock scenarios; (ii) a stochastic DSA, providing for a probabilistic approach to debt sustainability; and (iii) other relevant indicators capturing liquidity and solvency risks. The information embedded in the three main DSA blocks can be summarised in a heat map, which can provide guidance on the overall assessment of risks to debt sustainability. This method reflects the need to have a broad-based assessment, cross-checking information and perspectives from various sources with a view to deriving a robust debt sustainability assessment.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H62 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Deficit, Surplus
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
H68 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
- 2015
- Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
- 2015
- Economic ModellingComparing the shapes of recoveries: France, the UK and the US
- 2014
- International Journal of ForecastingThe way out of recessions: Evidence from a bounce-back augmented threshold regression
- 2008
- Economie et PrévisionAre financial variables useful to detect the state of the economy in real time?
- 2005
- Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics