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Derry O’Brien

21 June 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022
Details
Abstract
In this box, we present a new measure of domestic inflation for the euro area that takes into account the import intensity of HICP items. For this new indicator, the import intensities of HICP items are derived using information from national accounts and input-output tables. The HICP items with a relatively low import intensity are subsequently aggregated to a “Low IMport Intensity” (LIMI) inflation indicator. Differently to the literature, an empirical assessment is used to determine an optimal threshold for these import intensities. While the ECB’s inflation target is formulated in terms of headline inflation, the concept of domestic inflation is of analytical relevance to monetary policy, as it features prominently in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Common indicators of domestic inflation, such as the GDP deflator or core inflation, either include elements that are not directly related to consumer prices or exclude volatile components that may nonetheless be driven by domestic factors. The LIMI inflation indicator can complement the information provided by these other indicators in an assessment of the underlying inflationary pressures.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
17 February 2022
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2022
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Abstract
This box assesses the role of migration in weak labour force developments during the COVID-19 pandemic. The labour force in the euro area remains well below the dynamics expected before the outbreak of the pandemic. This gap reflects both a weaker than expected growth in the working age population and a lower than expected labour force participation rate. Subdued net immigration may have contributed to these developments, with some foreign workers resettling in their home countries. It is likely that several factors have weighed on inward migration flows, including weaker employment prospects, travel restrictions and pervasive uncertainty induced by the pandemic. The share of foreign workers in the euro area may gradually converge towards the levels expected pre-pandemic, but risks are overall tilted to the downside.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
11 November 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2021
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Abstract
This box assesses labour supply developments during the COVID-19 pandemic. During the pandemic labour supply has fallen sharply. It has partially recovered, although it remains substantially below pre-pandemic levels. While labour force was initially affected in a similar way across the largest euro area countries, there was also some heterogeneity across countries and demographic groups. When taking the pre-pandemic trends into account, workers with a low and medium level of education as well as older workers explain the largest part of the current gap to the pre-pandemic trends. A full recovery of labour force participation to the rising pre-pandemic trend will likely be gradual.
JEL Code
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
J11 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demographic Economics→Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
J21 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
1 February 2021
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 1, 2021
Details
Abstract
The response to the COVID-19 outbreak with lockdowns implies both a shutdown of some markets and a severe economic downturn. Price developments have been influenced in a complex manner by different demand and supply factors, which limits the applicability of past empirical regularities in the interpretation of recent aggregate inflation developments. This article looks at this complexity and applies a component-by-component approach to analysing HICP inflation that takes into account the circumstances prevailing in individual markets. The article analyses how sub-components of euro area inflation have behaved since the onset of the pandemic. It then elaborates on the relative importance of demand and supply factors driving the disaggregated price developments and the implications for headline inflation. The article concludes with the lessons that can be learnt from this bottom-up analysis, an approach that is particularly suited to current circumstances.
JEL Code
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles