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Björn van Roye
International & European Relations
- Division
External Developments
- Current Position
-
Team Lead - Economist
- Fields of interest
-
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,International Economics
- Education
- 2007-2013
PhD in Economics at the Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Germany
- 2001-2007
Master in Economics at Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, Germany
- 2004-2006
Master in Econometrics and Statistics at ENSAE, France
- Professional experience
- 2019-2020
Principal Economist, Directorate General International Policy and European Relations, External Developments Division; European Central Bank, Frankfurt/Main, Germany.
- 2017-2018
Senior Economist, Directorate General International Policy and European Relations, External Developments Division; European Central Bank, Frankfurt/Main, Germany.
- 2014-2016
Economist, Directorate General International Policy and European Relations, External Developments Division; European Central Bank, Frankfurt/Main, Germany.
- 2013-2014
Consultant, Directorate General International Policy and European Relations, International Policy Analysis Division; European Central Bank, Frankfurt/Main, Germany.
- 2007-2014
Research economist, Forecasting center and research area macroeconomic policies under market imperfections; The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, Germany.
- Awards
- 2015
Laureate of the Erich-Schneider Prize 2015 for an outstanding Doctoral Thesis, Christian-Albrechts-Universität Kiel, Germany
- 2014
Science Award for the best PhD-thesis in Northern Germany in the field of macroeconmics, Deutsche Bundesbank, Hamburg, Germany.
- 2012
Honorable mention in the best paper award at the 2012 conference of the Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET) in Vienna, Austria.
- Teaching experience
- 2020
Advanced Macroeconomics II - MPhil - University of Oxford
- 2014-2020
Applied international economics, University of the Deutsche Bundesbank, Hachenburg, Germany.
- 3 March 2021
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2530Details
- Abstract
- In a highly interlinked global economy a key question is how foreign shocks transmit to the domestic economy, how domestic shocks affect the rest of the world, and how policy actions mitigate or amplify spillovers. For policy analysis in such a context global multi-country macroeconomic models that allow a structural interpretation are needed. In this paper we present a revised version of ECB-Global, the European Central Bank's global macroeconomic model. ECB-Global 2.0 is a semi-structural, global multi-country model with rich channels of international shock propagation through trade, oil prices and global financial markets for the euro area, the US, Japan, the UK, China, oil-exporting economies, Emerging Asia, and a rest-of-the-world block. Relative to the original version of model, ECB-Global 2.0 features dominant-currency pricing, tariffs and trade diversion. We illustrate the usefulness of ECB-Global exploring scenarios motivated by recent trade tensions between China and the US.
- JEL Code
- C51 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Construction and Estimation
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 27 November 2018
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2018Details
- Abstract
- The intensification of trade tensions this year has raised concerns about the potential adverse impact on global growth and asset prices. So far, the isolated effects of introducing tariffs on selected goods on asset prices have been adverse mainly for specific companies that rely heavily on international trade. At the same time, global financial markets have overall been fairly resilient to the announcements and implementation of tariff measures. This special feature finds that an escalation of trade tensions could trigger a global repricing in asset markets. For the euro area, asset prices would be strongly affected in the event of a full-blown global trade war, in which all countries impose tariffs on each other, while the impact of a regionally contained trade dispute escalation would be rather subdued.
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F18 : International Economics→Trade→Trade and Environment
F47 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- 26 September 2018
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2018Details
- Abstract
- The global trading landscape has changed rapidly in recent months. Announcements of tariffs by the US Administration and retaliation by its trading partners have raised concerns about a possible 'trade war' and, potentially, a broader reversal of globalisation. On 1 March the US Administration announced tariffs of 25% on imports of steel and 10% on imports of aluminium from a wide range of countries. The first wave of tariffs relating to technology transfers on Chinese imports took effect on 6 July, followed by the announcement of retaliation in kind by the Chinese authorities. In response to the Chinese retaliation, the US Administration threatened to impose additional tariffs. In parallel, the EU and Canada implemented retaliatory measures against the US tariffs on steel and aluminium. Finally, the US Administration initiated a new investigation of imports of cars, trucks and auto parts (to determine their effects on national security) which could result in additional tariffs. Recently, however, there have also been some signs of a reduction in trade tensions resulting from a meeting between US and EU officials as well as the new NAFTA arrangements between the United States and Mexico.
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F17 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Forecasting and Simulation
C54 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Quantitative Policy Modeling
- 24 May 2017
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2017Details
- Abstract
- This special feature analyses the recent decoupling between measures of financial conditions and economic policy uncertainty. In 2016, several risky asset prices surged and financial market volatility hovered at low levels while measures of economic policy uncertainty increased sharply, the latter partly triggered by the outcomes of the UK referendum on EU membership and the US presidential election. This special feature attempts to explain these diverging trends. It starts out by reviewing the existing academic literature on uncertainty and its implications for financial conditions. In the empirical part that follows, it provides model-based estimates of the drivers underlying the benign financial conditions prevailing in UK and US financial markets. The results suggest that the adverse impact of economic policy uncertainty on financial conditions in the United States was more than offset by a positive demand shock. In the case of the United Kingdom, however, it was the resolute accommodative monetary policy actions by the Bank of England that supported financial conditions after the referendum. Turning to the euro area, policy uncertainty increased in several countries in the first months of 2017. Looking ahead, further shocks stemming from the political sphere may, in the absence of offsetting factors, tighten domestic financial conditions, increase risk premia and potentially raise debt sustainability concerns.
- JEL Code
- G00 : Financial Economics→General→General
- 18 April 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2045Details
- Abstract
- In a highly interlinked global economy a key question for policy makers is how foreign shocks and policies transmit to the domestic economy. We develop a semi-structural multi-country model with rich real and financial channels of international shock propagation for the euro area, the US, Japan, the UK, China, oil-exporting economies and the rest of the world: ECB-Global. We illustrate the usefulness of ECB-Global for policy analysis by presenting its predictions regarding the global spillovers from a US monetary policy tightening, a drop in oil prices and a growth slowdown in China. The impulse responses implied by ECB-Global are well in line with those generated by other global models, with international spillovers in ECB-Global generally on the high side given its rich real and financial spillover structure.
- JEL Code
- C51 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Construction and Estimation
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 3 April 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2042Details
- Abstract
- This study tests for the state-dependent response of monetary policy to increases in overall financial stress and financial sector-specific stress across a panel of advanced and emerging economy central banks. We use a factor-augmented dynamic panel threshold regression model with (estimated) common components to deal with crosssectional dependence. We find strong evidence of state-dependence in the response of monetary policy to financial sector-specific stress for advanced economy central banks, as they pursue aggressive monetary policy loosening in response to stock market and banking stress only in times of high financial market volatility. By comparison, evidence of threshold effects of financial stress is generally weak for emerging market central banks.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
C24 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Truncated and Censored Models, Switching Regression Models
- 12 July 2016
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1934Details
- Abstract
- The Bayesian Estimation, Analysis and Regression toolbox (BEAR) is a comprehensive (Bayesian) (Panel) VAR toolbox for forecasting and policy analysis. BEAR is a MATLAB based toolbox which is easy for non-technical users to understand, augment and adapt. In particular, BEAR includes a user-friendly graphical interface which allows the tool to be used by country desk economists. Furthermore, BEAR is well documented, both within the code as well as including a detailed theoretical and user's guide. BEAR includes state-of-the art applications such as sign and magnitude restrictions, conditional forecasts, Bayesian forecast evaluation measures, Bayesian Panel VAR using different prior distributions (for example hierarchical priors), etc. BEAR is specifically developed for transparently supplying a tool for state-of-the-art research and is planned to be further developed to always be at the frontier of economic research.
- JEL Code
- C11 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Bayesian Analysis: General
C30 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→General
C87 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Econometric Software
E00 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→General
F00 : International Economics→General→General
- 8 July 2015
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1825Details
- Abstract
- In this paper we investigate the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic activity in the euro area by using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with heterogeneous agents and a stylized banking sector. We show that frictions in credit supply amplify the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic activity. This amplification channel stems mainly from the stickiness in banking retail interest rates. This stickiness reduces the effectiveness in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 2018
- Economic Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 78-98.The ECB-Global Model
- 2017
- nternational Review of Economics and Finance, Vol. 51, pages 599-620.Threshold Effects of Financial Stress on Monetary Policy Rules: A Panel Data Analysis
- 2016
- ournal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Vol. 73(C), pages 200-219.Uncertainty shocks, banking frictions and economic activity
- 2016
- International EconomicsFinancial stress and economic dynamcis: an application for France
- 2014
- Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 1-17.International transmission and Business Cycle Effects of Financial Stress,
- 2013
- EmpiricaFinancial stress and economic activity in Germany