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Andrej Ceglar
Counsel to the Executive Board
- Current Position
-
Executive Board Advice Expert
- Fields of interest
-
Mathematical and Quantitative Methods,Other Special Topics
- Other current responsibilities
- 2022-
Climate scientist
- 24 September 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Nature is crucial to human wellbeing and provides essential ecosystem services that support economic activity. However, the economic value of these services is often undervalued because they are not traded in markets or given a direct monetary value. Nature degradation, including biodiversity loss, threatens the continued provision of these critical services, potentially leading to significant macroeconomic consequences that affect price and financial stability. Recent analysis by the European Central Bank (ECB) revealed that nearly three-quarters of the euro area economy and financial system are critically dependent on healthy ecosystems. Therefore, a systematic, proactive and comprehensive approach to quantifying and assessing the impact of escalating nature-related economic and financial risks on price and financial stability is essential. This article discusses the implications from a central banking perspective, emphasising the importance of an integrated approach to climate change and nature-related risks. It further explores the impact of these risks on our economy and seeks a deeper understanding of the physical impacts of climate change.
- JEL Code
- C80 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→General
C60 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
Q20 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Renewable Resources and Conservation→General
Q50 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→General
- 1 December 2023
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 335Details
- Abstract
- Biodiversity – the variety of life on Earth – is essential for sustaining the healthy ecosystems that our economy and banks depend on. Despite the clear benefits of a healthy natural world for people and the economy, humanity is putting immense pressure on nature and biodiversity. Economic activities that rely on healthy nature are often responsible for generating environmental pressures. It is important to assess the impact that firms and financial institutions have on nature degradation, in order to reveal their exposure to transition risk and highlight the need to move towards an economic system that values nature, rather than putting it at risk. This study analyses the contribution of euro area economic activities – and the bank loans provided to enable them – to biodiversity loss by estimating biodiversity footprints. The datasets we use account for approximately €4.3 trillion in corporate loans to around 4.2 million companies located in the euro area, issued by more than 2,500 unique consolidated euro area banks. Considering two primary drivers of biodiversity loss (land-use change and climate change), the results show that the economy has had a significant impact on biodiversity, equivalent to the loss of 582 million hectares of “pristine” natural areas worldwide. Even though the impact on biodiversity is highest in Europe, the supply chains of companies are important determinants of their indirect biodiversity footprint worldwide. Asia and Africa have the largest areas impacted by activities that take place in company supply chains. Additionally, financing of economic activities with a high global impact on nature is concentrated: the ten banks with the highest financing share are responsible for financing around 40% of the total global impact of euro area firms. [...]
- JEL Code
- C55 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Modeling with Large Data Sets?
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
Q5 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics
- 8 November 2023
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 333Living in a world of disappearing nature: physical risk and the implications for financial stabilityDetails
- Abstract
- The loss of biodiversity and the degradation of natural ecosystems pose a significant threat to the broader economy and financial stability that central banks and financial supervisors cannot ignore. To gain further insights into the implications of nature and ecosystem service degradation for financial stability, this study assesses the dependencies of euro area non-financial corporations and banks on different ecosystem services. The study then develops a method to capture banks’ credit portfolio sensitivity to possible future changes in the provision of ecosystem services. Our results show that 75% of all corporate loan exposures in the euro area have a strong dependency on at least one ecosystem service. We also find that loan portfolios may be significantly affected if nature degradation continues its current trend, with greater vulnerabilities concentrated in certain regions and economic sectors.
- JEL Code
- C55 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Modeling with Large Data Sets?
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
Q5 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics