First workshop on expectations surveys:
a tool for research and monetary policy

Welcoming remarks

Beverly Hirtle, Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Plenary 1

Ulrike Malmendier, University of California, Berkeley

Surveying business uncertainty

• David Altig, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
• Jose Barrero, ITAM – Business School
• Nicholas Bloom, Stanford University
• Steven Davis, University of Chicago
• Brent Meyer*, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
• Nicholas Parker, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Real credit cycles

• Pedro Bordalo, University of Oxford
• Nicola Gennaioli, Bocconi University
• Andrei Shleifer, Harvard University
• Stephen Terry*, Boston University

Uncertainty and change: survey evidence of firms’ subjective beliefs

• Rüdiger Bachmann*, University of Notre Dame
• Kai Carstensen, University of Kiel
• Stefan Lautenbacher, ifo Institute
• Martin Schneider, Stanford University

Firms’ price, cost and activity expectations: evidence from micro data

• Lena Boneva, Bank of England
• James Cloyne, University of California, Davis
• Martin Weale*, King’s College London
• Tomasz Wieladek, Centre for Economic Policy Research/Barclays

Lunch

Measuring expectations: the effect of response mode on the use of focal responses, validity and respondents’ evaluations

• Wändi Bruine de Bruin*, University of Leeds
• Katherine Carman, RAND Corporation

Forecasting treatment effects with survey instruments

• Joseph Briggs*, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
• Andrew Caplin, New York University
• Søren Leth-Petersen, University of Copenhagen
• Gianluca Violante, Princeton University

Precise or imprecise probabilities? Evidence from survey response on late-onset dementia

• Pamela Giustinelli*, Bocconi University
• Charles F. Manski, Northwestern University
• Francesca Molinari, Cornell University

The impact of Brexit on UK firms

• Nicholas Bloom, Stanford University
• Philip Bunn, Bank of England
• Scarlet Chen*, Stanford University
• Paul Mizen, University of Nottingham
• Pawel Smietanka*, Bank of England
• Gregory Thwaites, London School of Economics

Coffee

Tax refund expectations and financial behavior

• Sydnee Caldwell, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
• Scott Nelson*, University of Chicago
• Daniel Waldinger, New York University

Unconventional monetary policy and SME expectations of future credit availability

• Annalisa Ferrando, European Central Bank
• Alexander Popov, European Central Bank
• Gregory Udell*, Indiana University

Five facts about beliefs and portfolios

• Stefano Giglio, Yale University
• Matteo Maggiori, Harvard University
• Johannes Stroebel*, New York University
• Stephen Utkus, Vanguard Center for Investor Research

Reception

Dinner

Remarks

John Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Plenary 2

Olivier Coibion, University of Texas, Austin

Inflation and deflationary biases in inflation expectations

• Michael J. Lamla, University of Essex
• Damjan Pfajfar*, Federal Reserve Board of Governors
• Lea Rendell, University of Maryland

Aggregate risk or aggregate uncertainty? Evidence from UK households

• Claudio Michelacci*, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
• Luigi Paciello, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance

The role of heterogeneous expectations in life cycle models

• Jochem de Bresser*, Tilburg University

Anchoring of inflation expectations

• Olivier Armantier, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
• Argia Sbordone*, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
• Giorgio Topa, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
• Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Lunch

Expectations uncertainty and household economic behavior

• Itzhak Ben-David, The Ohio State University
• Elyas Fermand, University of North Carolina
• Camelia M. Kuhnen*, University of North Carolina
• Geng Li, Federal Reserve Board of Governors

Marriage, children and labor supply: beliefs and outcomes

• Yifan Gong*, University of Western Ontario
• Ralph Stinebrickner, Berea College
• Todd R. Stinebrickner, University of Western Ontario

Inflation expectations and choices of households

• Nathanael Vellekoop*, University of Toronto
• Mirko Wiederholt, Goethe University Frankfurt

IQ, expectations and choice

• Francesco D’Acunto, Boston College
• Daniel Hoang, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
• Maritta Paloviita, Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank
• Michael Weber*, University of Chicago

Closing remarks

(by video)

Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the European Central Bank