Understanding inflation: lessons from the past, lessons for the future?

Welcome remarks

Frank Smets, European Central Bank

Session 1 Household-level inflation expectations

Chair: Frank Smets, European Central Bank

Salient price changes, inflation expectations and household behaviour

Francesco D’Acunto, University of Maryland
Ulrike Malmendier, University of California at Berkeley
Juan Ospina, University of Chicago
Michael Weber*, University of Chicago

Nate Vellekoop*, Goethe-Universität Frankfurt
Mirko Wiederholt, Goethe-Universität Frankfurt

Dimitris Christelis, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II
Dimitris Georgarakos*, European Central Bank
Tullio Jappelli, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II
Maarten van Rooij, De Nederlandsche Bank

Discussant: Damjan Pfajfar, Federal Reserve Board

Policy panel Low inflation – Lessons from the past, lessons for the future?

Chair: Peter Praet, European Central Bank

Panellists:

• Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé, Columbia University
• Adam S. Posen, Peterson Institute for International Economics
• Ángel Ubide, Goldman Sachs & Co.

Lunch and poster session

Poster session

The anchoring of inflation expectations in unconventional times: micro evidence for the euro area
Poster
Jonas Dovern*, Universität Heidelberg
Geoff Kenny, European Central Bank

Price setting and volatility: evidence from oil price volatility shocks
Poster
Matthew T. Klepacz*, William & Mary

Macroeconomic implications of oil price fluctuations: a regime-switching framework for the euro area
Poster
Fédéric Holm-Hadulla*, European Central Bank
Kirstin Hubrich, Federal Reserve Board

Services deepening and the transmission of monetary policy
Poster
Omar Rachedi*,Banco de España
Alessandro Galesi, Banco de España

Price and consumption responses to large exchange rate shocks: evidence from the great appreciation in Switzerland
Raphael A. Auer*, Bank for International Settlements
Ariel Burstein, UCLA
Sarah M. Lein, Universität Basel

Session 2 Lessons from micro price data

Chair: Massimo Rostagno, European Central Bank

Xavier Jaravel*, Stanford University

Carlos Carvalho, Banco Central do Brasil
Oleksiy Kryvtsov*, Bank of Canada

Discussant: Günter W. Beck, Universität Siegen

Keynote speech The formation of expectations, inflation and the Phillips curve

Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California at Berkeley

Session 3 The international dimension of inflation

Chair: Frank Moss, European Central Bank

Raphael A. Auer*, Bank for International Settlements
Andrei A. Levchenko, University of Michigan
Philip Sauré, Swiss National Bank

Günes Kamber, Bank for International Settlements
Benjamin Wong*, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Discussant: Benoît Mojon, Banque de France

Conference dinner – upon invitation only

Session 4 Trend inflation, inflation targets and inflation expectations

Chair: Hans-Joachim Klöckers, European Central Bank

Klaus Adam*, Universität Mannheim
Henning Weber, Deutsche Bundesbank

Adaptive learning and survey expectations of inflation
Sergey Slobodyan, CERGE-EI
Raf Wouters*, Nationale Bank van België/Banque Nationale de Belgique

Andres Blanco*, University of Michigan

Discussant: Argia M. Sbordone, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Keynote speech Real exchange rate behaviour: new evidence from matched retail goods

Alberto Cavallo, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Session 5 Exchange rate pass-through and the Phillips curve

Chair: Christiane Nickel, European Central Bank

Kristin Forbes*, Bank of England
Ida Hjortsoe, Bank of England
Tsvetelina Nenova, Bank of England

Stefan Laseen*, Sveriges Riksbank
Marzie Taheri Sanjani, International Monetary Fund

Discussant: Ester Faia, Goethe-Universität Frankfurt

Concluding remarks

Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President, European Central Bank

Lunch and poster session

Poster session

Inflation forecasts in the euro area: new insights from Phillips curve estimates and quantile regressions
Slides
Sophie Béreau, Université de Namur
Violaine Faubert*, Banque de France
Katja Schmidt, Banque de France

ALICE: a new inflation monitoring tool
Slides
Gabe de Bondt, European Central Bank
Elke Hahn, European Central Bank
Zivile Zekaite*, European Central Bank

Trend inflation and inflation compensation
Slides
Aubrey Poon*, Australian National University
Juan Angel Garcia, International Monetary Fund

Ambiguity, monetary policy and trend inflation
Slides
Riccardo M. Masolo, Bank of England
Francesca Monti*, Bank of England

End of conference