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2010 Q3

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

	2010	2011	2012	June 2011	June 2012	2015
Mean point estimate	1.4	1.5	1.7	1.5	1.7	2.0
Standard deviation	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3
Number of replies	55	54	41	45	36	43
Probability distributions	2010	2011	2012	June 2011	June 2012	2015
<-1.0%	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.2
-1.0 to -0.6%	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3
-0.5 to -0.1%	0.4	0.9	1.3	1.1	1.4	0.8
0.0 to 0.4%	2.5	3.5	4.3	4.1	3.5	2.0
0.5 to 0.9%	8.4	11.8	9.7	11.5	8.9	6.3
1.0 to 1.4%	40.0	30.2	20.0	29.1	21.1	15.9
1.5 to 1.9%	40.8	34.1	33.9	33.1	31.5	30.2
2.0 to 2.4%	6.4	14.1	21.4	15.7	23.2	26.9
2.5 to 2.9%	1.1	4.0	6.5	3.8	7.1	10.7
3.0 to 3.4%	0.2	1.0	1.9	1.0	2.4	4.5
3.5 to 3.9%	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.5	1.5
>4.0%	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

	2010	2011	2012	2011 Q1	2012 Q1	2015
Mean point estimate	1.1	1.4	1.6	1.4	1.4	1.8
Standard deviation	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.3
Number of replies	55	54	42	44	36	41
Probability distributions	2010	2011	2012	2011 Q1	2012 Q1	2015
<-1.0%	0.1	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.1
-1.0 to -0.6%	0.2	1.0	0.6	0.4	0.4	0.4
-0.5 to -0.1%	1.1	2.1	1.4	1.5	1.4	0.9
0.0 to 0.4%	5.1	5.7	4.0	6.4	4.8	2.9
0.5 to 0.9%	29.8	16.3	10.8	18.7	14.2	8.1
1.0 to 1.4%	45.7	32.9	26.2	29.6	27.2	18.2
1.5 to 1.9%	14.3	25.6	30.3	26.0	27.7	29.7
2.0 to 2.4%	2.8	11.3	17.2	12.1	15.6	22.7
2.5 to 2.9%	0.4	3.0	5.9	4.0	5.7	10.7
3.0 to 3.4%	0.2	1.1	2.1	0.9	2.0	4.5
3.5 to 3.9%	0.1	0.2	0.7	0.1	0.4	1.4
>4.0%	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.0	0.1	0.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

	2010	2011	2012	May 2011	May 2012	2015
Mean point estimate	10.1	10.2	9.8	10.2	9.9	8.4
Standard deviation	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.5	0.8
Number of replies	54	53	42	41	35	38
Probability distributions	2010	2011	2012	May 2011	May 2012	2015
<6.5%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5
6.5 to 6.9%	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	2.6
7.0 to 7.4%	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.2	7.1
7.5 to 7.9%	0.0	0.1	0.8	0.1	0.9	16.1
8.0 to 8.4%	0.0	0.7	2.1	0.7	2.8	20.4
8.5 to 8.9%	0.4	2.3	7.4	2.1	6.4	19.1
9.0 to 9.4%	3.2	8.1	16.8	7.4	15.5	15.6
9.5 to 9.9%	22.7	23.5	26.6	23.9	24.7	8.3
10.0 to 10.4%	51.3	31.1	24.0	30.4	24.6	4.0
10.5 to 10.9%	17.5	21.2	12.3	21.8	13.1	2.2
11.0 to 11.4%	3.6	9.4	6.0	8.9	7.2	1.6
11.5 to 11.9%	1.0	2.6	3.0	3.5	3.6	1.1
12.0 to 12.4%	0.4	0.8	0.7	0.8	0.8	0.8
12.5 to 12.9%	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.3
13.0 to 13.4%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1
13.5 to 13.9%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
14.0 to 14.4%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
14.5 to 14.9%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
>15.0%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

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