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2005 Q1

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

	2005	2006	Dec. 2005	Dec. 2006	2009
Mean point estimate	1.9	1.8	1.7	1.8	1.9
Standard deviation	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1
Number of replies	63	61	57	52	46
Probability distributions	2005	2006	Dec. 2005	Dec. 2006	2009
<0.0%	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.5
0.0-0.4%	0.2	1.0	0.7	1.1	1.5
0.5-0.9%	1.6	3.5	3.8	4.0	4.4
1.0-1.4%	8.2	12.1	15.3	14.3	12.6
1.5-1.9%	44.6	46.2	46.2	44.0	38.6
2.0-2.4%	37.6	28.1	27.4	26.7	30.2
2.5-2.9%	6.7	7.2	5.7	7.4	8.3
3.0-3.4%	0.9	1.5	0.7	1.8	2.9
>3.5%	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.4	1.1
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

	2005	2006	2005 Q3	2006 Q3	2009
Mean point estimate	1.8	2.1	1.9	2.2	2.3
Standard deviation	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3
Number of replies	63	60	55	51	47
Probability distributions	2005	2006	2005 Q3	2006 Q3	2009
<0.0%	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.4
0.0-0.4%	0.6	0.8	0.8	0.7	0.8
0.5-0.9%	2.1	2.1	2.6	2.4	2.7
1.0-1.4%	15.1	7.8	14.5	7.4	7.6
1.5-1.9%	48.6	28.2	41.9	28.0	24.2
2.0-2.4%	25.7	41.5	30.5	40.1	36.3
2.5-2.9%	6.0	14.5	7.8	16.2	18.8
3.0-3.4%	1.1	3.3	1.4	3.8	6.7
3.5-3.9%	0.4	0.8	0.3	1.0	1.9
>4.0%	0.2	0.6	0.0	0.2	0.6
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

	2005	2006	Nov. 2005	Nov. 2006	2009
Mean point estimate	8.8	8.5	8.7	8.4	7.5
Standard deviation	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.6
Number of replies	62	60	52	48	42
Probability distributions	2005	2006	Nov. 2005	Nov. 2006	2009
<5.5%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.4
5.5-5.9%	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	1.2
6.0-6.4%	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	4.3
6.5-6.9%	0.2	0.5	0.3	0.9	9.6
7.0-7.4%	0.6	1.6	0.7	2.9	19.8
7.5-7.9%	2.1	6.5	4.0	10.6	19.4
8.0-8.4%	9.7	27.9	15.4	27.1	24.8
8.5-8.9%	59.1	44.7	55.2	40.1	13.8
9.0-9.4%	23.5	14.1	19.8	13.8	4.8
9.5-9.9%	3.4	3.1	3.2	3.1	1.4
10.0-10.4%	0.9	1.1	0.9	0.9	0.6
10.5-10.9%	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.1
>11.0%	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

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