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Michal Slavík
- 12 April 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 3, 2024Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 57 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 11 and 19 March 2024, aggregate activity was subdued at the start of the year, but there were some signs of a pick-up in demand and expectations of a gradual, albeit modest, recovery in the course of the year. Growth in selling prices picked up slightly in the first months of the year, owing mainly to a slight rebound in the prices of some intermediate goods and services. However, growth in prices closer to the final consumer continued to ease gradually, as did wage expectations.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 11 January 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2023Last updated on 30 January 2024Details
- Abstract
- This box analyses recent developments in the net interest income of households and firms in the euro area as a whole and in the largest euro area countries, against the backdrop of rising interest rates. Net interest income is a direct channel through which the ECB transmits policy rate changes to savers and borrowers. Over the last decade net interest income has been negative for households and firms at the aggregate sectoral level. Interest-bearing assets, which affect the interest received by households and firms, and liabilities, which affect interest paid, are important drivers of developments in net interest income. Individual countries demonstrate striking differences in net interest income and interest-bearing assets and liabilities, largely due to specific structural factors.
- JEL Code
- E01 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth, Environmental Accounts
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 3 February 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2021Details
- Abstract
- As part of the process of gathering information on the outlook for economic activity and prices, the European Central Bank (ECB) maintains regular contacts with non-financial companies. This gathering of business intelligence has become more structured over time and tends to be particularly valuable during exceptional periods, such as those resulting from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Therefore, starting with this issue of the Economic Bulletin, the ECB will provide a summary of the main findings from its contacts with leading euro area businesses. This article explains how these interactions contribute to the ECB’s economic analysis and how they are organised and summarised. The main findings from the most recent exchanges with companies, which took place in early January, are summarised in Box 1.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 18 October 2011
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 132Details
- Abstract
- This paper explains the various concepts of government debt in the euro area with particular emphasis on its size and composition. In terms of size, the paper focuses on different definitions that are in use, in particular the concept of gross general government debt used in the surveillance of the euro area countries, the total liabilities from the government balance sheet approach, and the net debt concept which subtracts government financial assets from the liability side. In addition, it discusses
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics
P24 : Economic Systems→Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies→National Income, Product, and Expenditure, Money, Inflation
- 7 April 2011
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1319Details
- Abstract
- We use a threshold VAR analysis to study whether the effects of fiscal policy on economic activity differ depending on financial market conditions. In particular, we investigate the possibility of a non-linear propagation of fiscal developments according to different financial market stress regimes. More specifically we employ a quarterly dataset, for the U.S., the U.K., Germany and Italy, for the period 1980:4-2009:4, encompassing macro, fiscal and financial variables. The results show that (i) the use of a nonlinear framework with regime switches is corroborated by nonlinearity tests; (ii) the responses of economic growth to a fiscal shock are mostly positive in both financial stress regimes; (iii) financial stress has a negative effect on output growth and worsens the fiscal position; (iv) the nonlinearity in the response of output growth to a fiscal shock is mainly associated with different behaviour across regimes; (v) the size of the fiscal multipliers is higher than average in the last crisis.
- JEL Code
- E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
H60 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→General - Network
- Macroprudential Research Network
- 3 March 2011
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1307Details
- Abstract
- This paper investigates the relationship between government debt and labour taxation for a panel of 18 EU countries over the period 1979-2008. The econometric estimates point to a statistically significant and economically relevant positive response of labour taxation to changes in the general government debt and interest expenditure-to-GDP ratios. The results are robust across a range of econometric specifications and labour tax indicators.
- JEL Code
- H2 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
H24 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
J22 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Time Allocation and Labor Supply
- 16 June 2010
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 113Details
- Abstract
- This report aims to analyse euro area energy markets and the impact of energy price changes on the macroeconomy from a monetary policy perspective. The core task of the report is to analyse the impact of energy price developments on output and consumer prices. Nevertheless, understanding the link between energy price fluctuations, inflationary pressures and the role of monetary policy in reacting to such pressure requires a deeper look at the structure of the economy. Energy prices have presented a challenge for the Eurosystem, as the volatility of the energy component of consumer prices has been high since the creation of EMU. At the same time, a look back into the past may not necessarily be very informative for gauging the likely impact of energy price changes on overall inflation in the future. For instance, the reaction of HICP inflation to energy price fluctuations seems to have been more muted during the past decade than in earlier periods such as the 1970s.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy - Network
- Eurosystem Monetary Transmission Network
- 14 April 2010
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 109Details
- Abstract
- In mid-September 2008, a global financial crisis erupted which was followed by the most serious worldwide economic recession for decades. As in many other regions of the world, governments in the euro area stepped in with a wide range of emergency measures to stabilise the financial sector and to cushion the negative consequences for their economies. This paper examines how and to what extent these crisis-related interventions, as well as the fall-out from the recession, have had an impact on fiscal positions and endangered the longer-term sustainability of public finances in the euro area and its member countries. The paper also discusses the appropriate design of fiscal exit and consolidation strategies in the context of the Stability and Growth Pact to ensure a rapid return to sound and sustainable budget positions. Finally, it reviews some early lessons from the crisis for the future conduct of fiscal policies in the euro area.
- JEL Code
- E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy - Network
- Eurosystem Monetary Transmission Network
- 31 March 2008
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 887Details
- Abstract
- We extend the scarce evidence on labor supply in post-transition countries by estimating the wage elasticity of labor force participation in the Czech Republic. Using the household income survey data of 2002, we find that a one-percent rise in the gross wage increases the probability of working by 0.16 and 0.02 percentage points for women and men, respectively. Taking into account the tax and benefit system, these semi-elasticities fall to 0.06 for women and 0.01 for men. We interpret the difference between the estimates from the two specifications as a summary measure of the welfare system disincentives. The estimated wage elasticities lie at the lower end of the range of values reported for mature market economies. This finding is consistent with the stylized fact that the labor supply in countries with high labor force participation rates, such as in the Czech Republic, tends to be less sensitive to wages.
- JEL Code
- J22 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Demand and Supply of Labor→Time Allocation and Labor Supply
J31 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→Wage Level and Structure, Wage Differentials
P30 : Economic Systems→Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions→General