Macroeconomic Modelling Frontiers for Research and Policy in Central Banks
Wednesday, 27 and Thursday, 28 November 2024
Frankfurt am Main
on-site event
The events of the recent years (Covid-19, post-pandemic inflation, large-scale fiscal/monetary policies, climate change, artificial intelligence etc.) have brought the topic of modelling and forecasting at central banks to the spotlight. The conference will bring together academics and policymakers aiming to serve as a platform to assess and validate the modelling and forecasting agendas employed by central banks.
The first day consists of high-level presentations and a policy panel discussing the role of macroeconomic models in central banking, their current challenges, and emerging trends.
Programme
* indicates the presenter
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Policy Day Ahead
- 13:30
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Registration and coffee
- 14:00
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Opening remarks
Óscar Arce, European Central Bank
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Keynote Speeches
Chair: Óscar Arce, European Central Bank
- 14:15
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Keynote speech 1 – title tbc
Argia Sbordone, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- 15:15
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Keynote speech 2 – title tbc
David Vines, Oxford University - 16:15
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Coffee break
- 16:45
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Policy panel: “Macroeconomic models for central banking: usefulness and challenges”
Moderator: Matteo Ciccarelli, European Central Bank
Panelists:
- Don Coletti, Bank of Canada
- Juha Kilponen, Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank
- Silvana Tenreyro, London School of Economics
- Carlos Thomas, Banco de España
- 18:15
-
End of day 1
followed by a reception – by invitation only - 19:00
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Dinner
– by invitation only –
Remarks
Philip Lane, European Central Bank
Dinner Speech
Huw Pill, Bank of England
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Research conference
- 8:30
-
Registration and coffee
-
Session A: Heterogeneity
Chair: May Rostom, Bank of England
- 9:00
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Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Disaggregated Economies
- Lydia Cox, University of Wisconsin-Madison and NBER
- Jiacheng Feng, Jane Street Capital
- Gernot J. Müller*, University of Tübingen and CEPR
- Ernesto Pasten, Central Bank of Chile
- Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University, and CEPR
- Michael Weber, Booth School of Business, University of Chicago and NBER
Discussant: Luzie Thiel, University of Kassel
- 9:50
-
The Labor Demand and Labor Supply Channels of Monetary Policy
- Sebastian Graves*, University of Cambridge
- Christopher Huckfeldt, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Eric Swanson, University of California, Irvine, and NBER
Discussant: Vivien Lewis, Deutsche Bundesbank
- 10:40
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Coffee break
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Session B: Artificial Intelligence
Chair: Michael Ehrmann, European Central Bank
- 11:10
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Expectation formation in Large Language Models
Nikoleta Anesti*, Edward Hill and Andreas Joseph, all Bank of England
Discussant: Sarah Arndt, Heidelberg University
- 12:00
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Nowcasting with Mixed Frequency Data Using Gaussian Processes
- Niko Hauzenberger, University of Strathclyde
- Massimiliano Marcellino, Bocconi University, IGIER, Baffi, Bidsa
- Michael Pfarrhofer, WU Vienna
- Anna Stelzer*, Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Discussant: Claudia Foroni, European Central Bank
- 12:50
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Buffet lunch
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Session C: Climate change
Chair: Eva Ortega, Banco de España
- 14:10
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Global economic impacts of physical climate risks
- Roshen Fernando*, Australian National University and World Bank
- Caterina Lepore, International Monetary Fund
Discussant: Francesca Diluiso, Bank of England
- 15:00
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Warming the MATRIX: Uncertainty and heterogeneity in climate change impacts and policy targets in the Euro Area
- Davide Bazzana, FEEM/UniBS
- Massimiliano Rizzati*, FEEM/UniBS
- Emanuele Ciola, FEEM/UniBS
- Enrico Turco, FEEM/UniCatt
- Sergio Vergalli, FEEM/UniBS
Discussant: Laura Parisi, European Central Bank
- 15:50
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Coffee break
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Session D: Hybrid approaches
Chair: Roberto Motto, European Central Bank
- 16:20
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Estimating Nonlinear Heterogeneous Agents Models with Neural Networks
- Hanno Kase, European Central Bank
- Leonardo Melosi*, University of Warwick, DNB, & CEPR
- Matthias Rottner, Deutsche Bundesbank
Discussant: Julien Pascal, Banque Centrale du Luxembourg
- 17:10
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Geography versus Income: The Heterogeneous Effects of Carbon Taxation
- Charles Labrousse*, Insee, Paris School of Economics
- Yann Perdereau, Paris School of Economics
Discussant: Nicolò Gnocato, Banca d’Italia
- 18:00
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Closing remarks and end of conference
This programme may be subject to change without notice.
Audiovisual notice: A photographer will be present at the event taking photographs for our internet / intranet webpage. If you prefer not to have your photograph taken, please approach the photographer directly. The event may be filmed and the video recording, or parts of it, may be published on the internet / intranet.
General information
European Central Bank
Sonnemannstrasse 20
60314 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
English
Participants are requested to arrange their own transfers, unless indicated otherwise.
Matteo Ciccarelli, Matthieu Darracq Pariès and Romanos Priftis, all European Central Bank