Não disponível em português
Claudio Morana
- 25 May 2012
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1437Details
- Abstract
- In the paper we investigate the empirical features of euro area money market turbulence during the recent financial crisis. By means of a novel Fractionally Integrated Heteroskedastic Factor Vector Autoregressive model, we find evidence of a deterministic level factor in the EURIBOR-OIS (OIS) spreads term structure, associated with the two waves of stress in the interbank market, following the BNP Paribas (9 August 2007) and the Lehman Brothers (16 September 2008) "shocks", and two additional factors, of the long memory type, bearing the interpretation of curvature and slope factors. The unfolding of the crisis yielded a significant increase in the persistence and volatility of OIS spreads. We also find evidence of a declining trend in the level and volatility of OIS spreads since December 2008, associated with ECB interest rate cuts and full allotment policy.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 23 December 2008
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 982Details
- Abstract
- In the framework of a new money market econometric model, we assess the degree of precision achieved by the European Central Bank ECB) in meeting its operational target for the short-term interest rate and the impact of the U.S. sub-prime credit crisis on the euro money market during the second half of 2007. This is done in two steps. Firstly, the long-term behaviour of interest rates with one-week maturity is investigated by testing for co-breaking and for homogeneity of spreads against the minimum bid rate (MBR, the key policy rate). These tests capture the idea that successful steering of very short-term interest rates is inconsistent with the existence of more than one common trend driving the one-week interest rates and/or with non-stationarity of the spreads among interest rates of the same maturity (or measured against the MBR). Secondly, the impact of several shocks to the spreads (e.g. interest rate expectations, volumes of open market operations, interest rate volatility, policy interventions, and credit risk) is assessed by jointly modelling their behaviour. We show that, after August 2007, euro area commercial banks started paying a premium to participate in the ECB liquidity auctions. This puzzling phenomenon can be understood by the interplay between, on the one hand, adverse selection in the interbank market and, on the other hand, the broad range of collateral accepted by the ECB. We also show that after August 2007, the ECB steered the "risk-free" rate close to the policy rate, but has not fully off-set the impact of the credit events on other money market rates.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets - Network
- ECB workshop on the analysis of the money market
- 16 August 2007
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 793Details
- Abstract
- This paper contributes to the existing literature on central bank repoauctions. It is based on a structural econometric approach, whereby the primitives of bidding behaviour (individual bid schedules and bid-shading components) are directly estimated. With the estimated parameters we calibrate a theoretical model in order to illustrate some comparative static results. Overall the results suggest that strategic and optimal behaviour is prevalent in ECB tenders. We find evidence of a statistically significant bid-shading component, even though the number of bidders is very large. Bid-shading increases with liquidity uncertainty and decreases with the number of participants.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
D44 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing→Auctions
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 28 December 2006
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 703Details
- Abstract
- This paper assesses the sources of volatility persistence in Euro Area money market interest rates and the existence of linkages relating volatility dynamics. The main findings of the study are as follows. Firstly, there is evidence of stationary long memory, of similar degree, in all series. Secondly, there is evidence of fractional cointegration relationships relating all series, except the overnight rate. Two common long memory factors are found to drive the temporal evolution of the volatility processes. The first factor shows how persistent volatility shocks are trasmitted along the term structure, while the second factor points to excess persistent volatility at the longer end of the yield curve, relative to the shortest end. Finally, impulse response analysis and forecast error variance decomposition point to forward transmission of shocks only, involving the closest maturities.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
- 17 March 2004
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 321Details
- Abstract
- In this paper we study the zero frequency spectral properties of fractionally cointegrated long memory processes and introduce a new frequency domain principal components estimator of the cointegration space and the factor loading matrix for the long memory factors. We find that for fractionally differenced (fractionally) cointegrated processes the squared multiple coherence at the zero frequency is equal to one, the spectral density matrix at the zero frequency is singular, and the factor loading and cointegrating matrices can be obtained from the eigenvectors of the spectral matrix at the zero frequency, associated with the positive and zero roots, respectively. A Monte Carlo simulation reveals that the proposed principal components estimator has already good properties with relatively small sample sizes.
- JEL Code
- C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- 17 February 2004
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 305Details
- Abstract
- In the paper we propose a new methodological approach to core inflation estimation, based on a frequency domain principal components estimator, suited to estimate systems of fractionally cointegrated processes. The proposed core inflation measure is the scaled common persistent factor in inflation and excess nominal money growth and bears the interpretation of monetary inflation. The proposed measure is characterised by all the properties that an "ideal" core inflation process should show, providing also a superior forecasting performance relative to other available measures.
- JEL Code
- C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 1 June 2003
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 235Details
- Abstract
- This paper estimate the factors underlying the volatility of the euro overnight interest rate and its transmission along the euro area money market yield curve. A new multivariate unobserved components model is proposed allowing for both long-memory and stationary cyclical dynamics. Using hourly data the estimates show repetitive intradaily and monthly patterns that can be explained by the microstructure of the money market and the institutional features of the Eurosystem's operational framework for monetary policy implementation. Strong persistence is dedected in all log-volatility processes and two common long-memory factors are extracted. The first factor explains the long-memory dynamics of the shortest maturity. The second factor explains the transmission of volatility along the money market yield curve. We find evidence that most liquidity effects are cyclical, confined to the ned of reserve maintenance periods, and are not transmitted along the money market yield curve.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
F30 : International Economics→International Finance→General
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
- 1 January 2002
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 119Details
- Abstract
- In this paper we study the role of the stock market in the transmission mechanism in the euro area and evaluate whether price stability and financial stability are mutually consistent and complementary objectives. Four major conclusions can be drawn from our work. First, stock prices and more generally, relative asset prices seem to play an important role in the transmission mechanism in the euro area. Second, we do not find any significant, direct impact of stock prices on inflation. These two findings taken together support the view that stock market prices may be important for monetary policy, independently of their direct impact on inflation. Third, permanent productivity shocks are the driving force of the stock market in the long-run and contribute significantly to its cyclical behaviour. Nevertheless, the bulk of cyclical dynamics in the stock market is explained by transitory shocks. Fourth, a monetary policy focused on maintaining price stability in the long-run can contribute also to stock market stability.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
O11 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- 1 November 2000
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 36Details
- Abstract
- We propose a measure of core inflation which is derived from a Markov switching ARFIMA model. The Markov switching ARFIMA model generalises the standard ARFIMA model allowing mean reversion to take place with respect to a changing unconditional mean. By imposing a coswitching restriction for nominal money growth and HICP inflation we are able to identify three regimes and establish a linkage between the long-run dynamics of inflation and money growth. The last regime has been found to be coherent with the objective of price stability and can be tentatively named EMU regime. The core inflation model has been contrasted with other models suggested in the literature and found to be superior in terms of forecasting power.
- JEL Code
- C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy