Nie ma wersji polskiej
Flavie Rousseau
Economics
- Division
Prices & Costs
- Current Position
-
Research Analyst
- Fields of interest
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Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
- 7 August 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Real wages have been increasing in recent quarters, recovering after their decline during the period of high inflation in 2022. By the first quarter of 2025 – when deflated by price indices that reflect consumption patterns, such as the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices and the private consumption deflator – real wages had almost returned to the levels recorded prior to the inflation surge. By contrast, when deflated by price indices that reflect the prices charged by domestic firms (such as the GDP deflator and sectoral value-added deflators), real wages have already surpassed the levels achieved before the high-inflation period. This reflects the fact that in the past few years, the rise in the cost of living has been higher than that in the prices charged domestically by euro area producers.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
J30 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs→General
- 1 August 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Available surveys of selling price expectations of firms for the euro area point to price dynamics that have substantially moderated after the recent large inflationary shock, albeit with a more sluggish adjustment for services than for goods. This box focuses on services and investigates the leading indicator properties of the forward-looking survey data provided by the European Commission. These data tend to anticipate notable turning points in services inflation. In addition, in a forecasting exercise, we find that their leading properties manifest in a non-linear way and are particularly useful in unusual times, such as during the recent inflation spike.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations